Editing Assassination market

{{short description|Type of market that incentivizes assassination}}

An '''assassination market''' is a [[prediction market]] where any party can place a bet (using anonymous [[electronic money]] and [[pseudonymous remailer]]s) on the date of death of a given individual. This incentivises assassination of the individual, as parties with advanced knowledge of an assassination plot can profit by betting accurately on the date of the death. Because the payoff is for accurately picking the date rather than performing the assassination, it is substantially more difficult to assign criminal liability.<ref name="Harkin 2009">{{cite book | title = Lost in Cyburbia: How Life on the Net Has Created a Life of Its Own | last = Harkin | first = James | year = 2009 | page = 239 | publisher = Knopf Canada | isbn = 978-0-307-37398-4}}</ref>

== History ==
[[File:Assassination market.jpg|thumbnail|right|A screenshot from the Tor Assassination Market of [[Ben Bernanke]], former chairman of the US [[Federal Reserve System|Federal Reserve]] and the prize money of the equivalent of about US$110,000 (as of May 2020)]]
Early uses of the terms "assassination market" and "market for assassinations" can be found (in both positive and negative lights) in 1994's "The [[Cyphernomicon]]"<ref name="Cyphernomicon">{{cite web | title = The Cyphernomicon: Cypherpunks FAQ and More, Version 0.666 | last = May | first = Timothy C. | date = 1994-09-10 | url = https://cypherpunks.to/faq/cyphernomicron/cyphernomicon.html | pages = Sections 4 & 16 | work = Cypherpunks.to | access-date = February 28, 2011 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110514104800/http://www.cypherpunks.to/faq/cyphernomicron/cyphernomicon.html | archive-date = May 14, 2011 | url-status = dead }}</ref> by [[Timothy C. May]], a [[cypherpunk]]. The concept and its potential effects are also referred to as '''assassination politics''', a term popularized by [[Jim Bell]] in his 1995–96 essay of the same name.<ref name="Bell 1997">{{cite web | url = http://jrbooksonline.com/PDF_Books/AP.pdf | title = Assassination Politics | last = Bell | first = Jim | work = Infowar | date = 1997-04-03 | access-date = February 28, 2011 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20110127224301/https://jrbooksonline.com/PDF_Books/AP.pdf | archive-date = 27 January 2011  | url-status = live}}</ref><ref name="McCullagh 2000">{{cite news|first=Declan |last=McCullagh |title=Crypto-Convict Won't Recant |url=https://wired.com/politics/law/news/2000/04/35620 |work=[[Wired (website)|Wired News]] |date=2000-04-14 |access-date=January 14, 2008 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121024203641/https://wired.com/politics/law/news/2000/04/35620 |archive-date=October 24, 2012 }}</ref>

Early in part 1, Jim Bell describes the idea as:<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.outpost-of-freedom.com/jimbellap.htm | title=Assassination Politics | author=Jim Bell }}</ref>

{{blockquote|The organization set up to manage such a system could, presumably, make up a list of people who had seriously violated the NAP ([[Non-aggression Principle]]), but who would not see justice in our courts due to the fact that their actions were done at the behest of the government. Associated with each name would be a dollar figure, the total amount of money the organization has received as a contribution, which is the amount they would give for correctly "predicting" the person's death, presumably naming the exact date. "Guessers" would formulate their "guess" into a file, encrypt it with the organization's public key, then transmit it to the organization, possibly using methods as untraceable as putting a floppy disk in an envelope and tossing it into a mailbox, but more likely either a cascade of encrypted anonymous remailers, or possibly public-access Internet locations, such as terminals at a local library, etc.

In order to prevent such a system from becoming simply a random unpaid lottery, in which people can randomly guess a name and date (hoping that lightning would strike, as it occasionally does), it would be necessary to deter such random guessing by requiring the "guessers" to include with their "guess" encrypted and untraceable "digital cash," in an amount sufficiently high to make random guessing impractical.}}

Bell then goes on to further specify the protocol of the assassination market in more detail. In the final part of his essay, Bell posits a market that is largely non-anonymous. He contrasts this version with the one previously described. Carl Johnson's attempt to popularise the concept of assassination politics appeared to rely on the earlier version.<ref>{{cite web | url = https://parrhesia.com/cj/ | title = CJ files | last1 = Broiles | first1 = Greg | date = 1999-08-27 | access-date = August 22, 2014 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20160319230420/http://parrhesia.com/cj/ | archive-date = March 19, 2016 | url-status = dead }}</ref> There followed an attempt to popularise the second in 2001 that is ongoing today.<ref>{{cite magazine|url=https://wired.com/politics/law/news/2001/05/43771 |title=Online Cincy Cop Threats Probed |last1=McCullagh |first1=Declan |magazine=[[Wired (website)|Wired News]] |date=2001-05-15 |access-date=August 22, 2014 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121105040401/https://wired.com/politics/law/news/2001/05/43771 |archive-date=November 5, 2012 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url = http://www.lair.xent.com/pipermail/fork/2003-July/023219.html | title = Online threats target Denver investigators | last1 = Hettinga | first1 = R. A. | date = 2003-07-07 | access-date = August 22, 2014 | archive-date = 2013-12-13 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20131213160558/http://www.lair.xent.com/pipermail/fork/2003-July/023219.html | url-status = dead }}</ref>

Technologies such as [[Tor (anonymity network)|Tor]] and [[bitcoin]] have enabled online assassination markets, as described in parts one to nine of ''Assassination Politics''.

== Assassination Market website ==
The first prediction market entitled 'Assassination Market' was created by a self-described [[Crypto-anarchism|crypto-anarchist]] in 2013.<ref>{{cite news|last=Greenberg|first=Andy|title=Meet the 'Assassination Market' creator who's crowdfunding murder with Bitcoins|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2013/11/18/meet-the-assassination-market-creator-whos-crowdfunding-murder-with-bitcoins/|access-date=November 19, 2013|newspaper=Forbes|date=2013-11-18}}</ref> Utilising Tor to hide the site's location and [[bitcoin]]-based bounties and prediction technology, the site lists bounties on former [[President of the United States|US President]] [[Barack Obama]], economist [[Ben Bernanke]] and former [[Minister for Justice (Sweden)|justice minister]] of [[Sweden]] [[Beatrice Ask]] (all of whom are still alive as of February 2025).<ref>{{cite news|last1=Bartlett|first1=Jamie|title=Inside the Digital Underworld|url=http://www.popmatters.com/feature/193833-the-dark-net-inside-the-digital-underworld/|access-date=22 July 2015|date=22 July 2015}}</ref> In 2015, the site was suspected to be defunct, but the deposited bitcoins were cashed out in 2018.<ref>{{Cite magazine|url=https://harpers.org/archive/2020/01/click-here-to-kill-dark-web-hitman/|title=Click Here to Kill|last=Merchant|first=Brian|date=January 2020|magazine=Harper's Magazine|access-date=2019-12-24|issn=0017-789X}}</ref>

== See also ==
* [[Dark web]]
* [[Darknet market]]
* [[Dead pool]]
* [[Policy Analysis Market]]
* [[Tontine]]
;Popular culture
* ''[[The Assassination Bureau, Ltd]]'', an unfinished novel by [[Jack London]]
* ''[[The Visit (play)|The Visit]]''
* "[[Hated in the Nation]]", an episode of ''[[Black Mirror]]''
* [[Ankh-Morpork#Assassins' Guild|The Ankh-Morpork Assassins' Guild]]

== References ==
{{Reflist}}

== Further reading ==
{{Refbegin}}
* {{cite book | last = Hess | first = Patrick | title = Cyberterrorism And Information War | publisher = Anmol Publications Pvt. Limited | year = 2002 | url = https://books.google.com/books?id=v9NSYnE3G_sC | isbn = 978-81-261-1161-9}}
* {{cite book | last = Thomas | first = Douglas | author2 = Loader, Brian | title = Cybercrime: Law Enforcement, Security and Surveillance in the Information Age | publisher = Routledge | year = 2000 | url = https://books.google.com/books?id=ZlkOcTP6A_AC | isbn = 978-0-415-21326-4}}
* {{cite journal | last = Sukumaran | first = R. | title = Cryptology, digital assassination and the terrorism futures markets | journal = Strategic Analysis | volume = 28 | issue = 2 | pages = 219–236 | year = 2004 | url = http://idsa.in/system/files/strategicanalysis_sukumaran_0604.pdf | doi = 10.1080/09700160408450129| s2cid = 154847137 }}
* {{cite conference | first = R. | last = Clarke |author2=Dempsey, G. |author3=Ooi, C. N. |author4=O'Connor, R. F. | date = 16–17 February 1998 | title = Technological Aspects of Internet Crime Prevention | location=Australian Institute for Criminology, Melbourne University | conference = ''Proc. Conf. "Internet Crime"''}}
{{Refend}}

== External links ==
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20041209151654/http://jya.com/ap.htm Jim Bell's ''Assassination Politics'' essay] at the [[Internet Archive]] ([http://outpost-of-freedom.com/jimbellap.htm Mirror])
* [https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/alt.privacy/MKy0G4zl0WA/NskNTe-efE4J The Usenet discussion containing the initial publication of the first part of ''Assassination Politics''] at [[Google Groups]]
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20120716205026/http://anti-state.com/series.html Academic discussion of assassination markets from an anarchist perspective] at the [[Internet Archive]]

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{{DEFAULTSORT:Assassination Market}}
[[Category:Crypto-anarchism]]
[[Category:Prediction markets]]
[[Category:Anarcho-capitalism]]
[[Category:Homicide]]