Editing Aging of Russia

{{short description|Aging population of Russia}}
{{multiple issues|{{update|date=October 2018}}
{{Expand Russian|topic=geo|date=February 2013|Демографический кризис в Российской Федерации}}}}
[[File:Population pyramid of Russia from 2020 to 2100.gif|thumb|300px|Population pyramid of Russia from 2020 to projections up to 2100]]

Since the early [[1990s]], social and [[demographics of Russia|demographic changes]] in the [[Russia|Russian Federation]], stemming from under the [[Soviet Union]], led the country towards an [[population ageing|aging population]], often described in media as a "[[population decline|demographic crisis]]".<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |last=Berriault |first=Lea |date=2022-01-31 |title=Russia's demographic setback |url=https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-demographic-decline/ |access-date=2023-01-15 |website=GIS Reports |language=en-US |archive-date=2023-10-05 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231005181910/https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-demographic-decline/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name=":1">{{Cite web |title=Russia's Demographic Crisis {{!}} Wilson Center |url=https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/russias-demographic-crisis |access-date=2023-01-15 |website=www.wilsoncenter.org |language=en |archive-date=2017-07-05 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170705223345/https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/russias-demographic-crisis |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Klomegah |first=Kester Kenn |date=2021-02-03 |title=Moment of Truth: Russia Faces Demography Crisis |url=https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/02/03/moment-of-truth-russia-faces-demography-crisis/ |access-date=2023-01-15 |website=Modern Diplomacy |language=en-US |archive-date=2023-10-02 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231002210438/https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2021/02/03/moment-of-truth-russia-faces-demography-crisis/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

== History ==
[[File:Population of Russia-rus.PNG|thumb|Total population of Russia 1950–2010]]
=== In the economic sphere ===
  
The demographic crisis has a positive economic effect on the second stage of the changing age structure of the population (the fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older) and a negative economic effect on the third stage of the changing age structure of the population (when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation). By 2025, Russia will have labor shortages.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Старостин|first=Алексей|title=Свобода перемещения трудовых ресурсов в ЕАЭС к 2025 году|url=https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/svoboda-peremeshcheniya-trudovykh-resursov-v-eaes-k-2025-godu-/|access-date=2022-02-06|website=russiancouncil.ru|language=ru|archive-date=2023-09-29|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230929024610/https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/svoboda-peremeshcheniya-trudovykh-resursov-v-eaes-k-2025-godu-/|url-status=live}}</ref>  
  
With a reduced [[Total fertility rate|fertility rate]], the load on the working population increases because each worker has to support more retirees.<ref name=":0" />
  
==== Demographic aging of the population ====
{{Seealso|Demographics of Russia}}
[[Russian Empire|Russia]] at the end of the 19th century was a country with a young population: the number of children significantly exceeded the number of the elderly. Up to 1938, the population of the [[Soviet Union]] remained "demographically young", but later, since 1959, began its demographic ageing: the proportion of young age began to decline, and the elderly started to increase, which was the result of lower fertility.<ref name=":1" /> This was not unique to Russia, and such issues have been felt in many developed countries and increasingly in many developing countries as well.<ref>{{Cite web |title=The EU is ageing and in need of care - here's what that might mean for its economic future |url=https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/eu-ageing-society-care-cost/ |access-date=2023-01-15 |website=[[World Economic Forum]] |language=en |archive-date=2023-09-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230930004910/https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/10/eu-ageing-society-care-cost/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
[[File:Deserted village at Sukhona River.jpg|thumb|Thousands of [[abandoned village]]s are scattered across Russia.<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia’s decaying villages |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2014/5/2/russias-decaying-villages |work=Al Jazeera |date=2 May 2014 |archive-date=1 July 2023 |access-date=1 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230701145913/https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2014/5/2/russias-decaying-villages |url-status=live }}</ref>]]
Currently, the share of people aged 65 and older in the population of Russia is 13%. According to forecasts of the Russian Academy of Sciences from the early 2000s, in 2016 elderly people aged 60 and over would have accounted for 20% of Russians, and children up to 15 years old would only have made up 17%. However, in Russia, in contrast to other countries, aging is limited by high mortality among older people.<ref name=":1" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Timonin |first1=Sergey |last2=Klimkin |first2=Ilya |last3=Shkolnikov |first3=Vladimir M. |last4=Andreev |first4=Evgeny |last5=McKee |first5=Martin |last6=Leon |first6=David A. |date=March 2022 |title=Excess mortality in Russia and its regions compared to high income countries: An analysis of monthly series of 2020 |journal=SSM - Population Health |volume=17 |pages=101006 |doi=10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.101006 |issn=2352-8273 |pmc=8717231 |pmid=35005187}}</ref>

==== Population trends 2015–present ====
{{Seealso|COVID-19 pandemic in Russia|Russian emigration following the Russian invasion of Ukraine|Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War}}
[[File:№ 3009 А.И. Старчков.jpg|thumb|Russian soldiers killed in [[Russian invasion of Ukraine|war in Ukraine]] have further exacerbated Russia's demographic crisis.<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia's 'catastrophic' missing men problem |url=https://theweek.com/russia/1017914/russias-catastrophic-missing-men-problem |work=The Week |date=10 May 2023 |archive-date=28 November 2023 |access-date=1 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231128215352/https://theweek.com/russia/1017914/russias-catastrophic-missing-men-problem |url-status=live }}</ref>]]
In 2020, over 500,000 deaths were attributed to the [[COVID-19 pandemic]], bringing the total deaths since its onset to approximately 700,000. Although 2021 was initially projected to have less impact on mortality, death rates still surpassed birth rates. President [[Vladimir Putin]]'s plan to overturn the stagnation was announced in 2017 in response to the downward trend. However the plan only partially helped in their demographic crisis and was hindered by the Pandemic, despite showing signs of recovery.

{{Historical populations
|type =
|footnote = Source:<ref>{{cite web|title=RUSSIA: historical demographical data of the whole country|url=http://www.populstat.info/Europe/russiac.htm|website=Populstat.info|access-date=6 July 2017|url-access=subscription|archive-date=7 July 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170707234550/http://www.populstat.info/Europe/russiac.htm|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref name="gks.ru-popul">{{cite web|url=https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/population-by-country.htm|format=XLS|script-title=ru:Оценка численности постоянного населения на 1 января 2020 года и в среднем за 2019 год|trans-title=Preliminary estimated population as of 1 January 2020 and on the average for 2019|language=ru|work=[[Russian Federal State Statistics Service|Rosstat]]|access-date=20 December 2021|archive-date=13 November 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231113215738/http://nationsonline.org/oneworld/population-by-country.htm|url-status=live}}</ref>{{failed verification|date=December 2020|reason=Two references are offered; one is inaccessible, and the other doesn't contain any of this historical data.}}<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.findeasy.in/population-of-russia/ | title=Population of Russia 2022 &#124; Religion in Russia | date=3 May 2021 | access-date=20 December 2021 | archive-date=8 December 2022 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221208170941/https://www.findeasy.in/population-of-russia/ | url-status=live }}</ref>
| percentages = pagr
|1897 | 67473000
|1926 | 93459000
|1939 | 108377000
|1959 | 117534000
|1970 | 130079000
|1979 | 137552000
|1989 | 147386000
|2002 | 145166731
|2010 | 142856836
|2015 | 144985057
|2019 | 146764655
|2020 | 146171015
|2021 | 146000460
}}

The [[Rate of natural increase|natural population]] declined by 997,000 between October 2020 and September 2021 (the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths over a period).<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/13/russias-population-undergoes-largest-ever-peacetime-decline |title=Russia's population undergoes largest ever peacetime decline |first=Pjotr |last=Sauer |date=13 October 2021 |work=The Guardian |access-date=1 July 2023 |archive-date=13 October 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211013112949/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/13/russias-population-undergoes-largest-ever-peacetime-decline |url-status=live }}</ref> The natural death rate in January 2020, 2021, and 2022 have each been nearly double the natural birth rate.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/75708/ |title=Natural population decrease in Russia down by 21% in Jan 2022 vs Jan 2021, but twice higher than in Jan 2020 - Rosstat |date=6 March 2022 |publisher=Interfax News Agency |access-date=1 July 2023 |archive-date=12 December 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231212161240/https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/75708/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

Following the [[Russian invasion of Ukraine]] in 2022, the demographic crisis in the country has deepened,<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die |url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/26/russia-stares-population-abyss-putin-sends-young-men-die/ |work=The Telegraph |date=26 February 2023 |archive-date=30 December 2023 |access-date=1 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231230083717/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/26/russia-stares-population-abyss-putin-sends-young-men-die/ |url-status=live }}</ref> as the country has reportedly suffered high military fatalities while facing renewed [[brain drain]] and [[human capital flight]] caused by Western mass-sanctions and boycotts.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.ft.com/content/8c576a9c-ba65-4fb1-967a-fc4fa5457c62 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221210/https://www.ft.com/content/8c576a9c-ba65-4fb1-967a-fc4fa5457c62 |archive-date=10 December 2022 |url-access=subscription|title=Ukraine war threatens to deepen Russia's demographic crisis|date=4 April 2022|last1=Cocco|first1=Federica|last2=Ivanonva|first2=Polina|work=[[Financial Times]]|access-date=6 October 2022|location=London}}</ref> Many commentators predict that the situation will be worse than during the 1990s.<ref>{{cite journal|url=https://jamestown.org/program/russias-demographic-collapse-is-accelerating/|title=Russia's Demographic Collapse Is Accelerating|last=Goble|first=Paul|volume=19|issue=127|date=18 August 2022|location=Washington, D.C.|journal=Eurasia Daily Monitor|publisher=[[Jamestown Foundation]]|archive-date=21 October 2023|access-date=1 July 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231021105942/https://jamestown.org/program/russias-demographic-collapse-is-accelerating/|url-status=live}}</ref>

In March 2023, ''The Economist'' reported that "Over the past three years the country has lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done, as a result of war [in Ukraine], disease and exodus."<ref name="economist-2023">{{cite news |title=Russia’s population nightmare is going to get even worse |url=https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse |work=[[The Economist]] |date=4 March 2023 |archive-date=11 March 2023 |access-date=1 July 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230311153739/https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse |url-status=live }}</ref> 

According to Russian economist Alexander Isakov, "Russia’s population has been declining and the war will reduce it further. Reasons? Emigration, lower fertility and war-related casualties."<ref>{{cite news |title=Putin’s War Escalation Is Hastening Demographic Crash for Russia |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/putin-s-war-escalation-is-hastening-demographic-crash-for-russia |work=Bloomberg |date=18 October 2022 |archive-date=2023-10-12 |access-date=2023-07-01 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231012000000/https://web.archive.org/web/20231012065405/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-18/putin-s-war-escalation-is-hastening-demographic-crash-for-russia |url-status=live }}</ref> Russian journalist [[Andrey Vladimirovich Kolesnikov|Andrey Kolesnikov]] noted that "We are seeing a phenomenon Russia has faced many times: wave after wave of wars and repression that drain away human resources."<ref>{{cite news |last1=Kolesnikov |first1=Andrei |title=Russia’s Second, Silent War Against Its Human Capital |url=https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/01/russias-second-silent-war-against-its-human-capital?lang=en |work=[[Carnegie Endowment for International Peace]] |date=8 February 2023}}</ref>

The UN is projecting that the decline that started in 2021 will continue, and if current demographic conditions persist, Russia’s population would be 120 million in fifty years, a decline of about 17%.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2022 |title=World Population Prospects 2022, Standard Projections, Compact File, Variant tab, Total Population, as of 1 January column |url=https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/ |website=United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division |access-date=2023-07-01 |archive-date=2022-07-11 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220711213112/https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/MostUsed/ |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref name="economist-2023"/>

In January 2024, the Russian statistics agency [[Federal State Statistics Service (Russia)|Rosstat]] predicted that Russia’s population could drop to 130 million by 2046.<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia's Population Could Fall to 130Mln by 2046 – Rosstat |url=https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/10/russias-population-could-fall-to-130mln-by-2046-rosstat-a83687 |work=[[The Moscow Times]] |date=12 January 2024 |archive-date=14 January 2024 |access-date=14 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240114183040/https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/10/russias-population-could-fall-to-130mln-by-2046-rosstat-a83687 |url-status=live }}</ref> The UN's 2024 scenarios projected Russia's population to be between 74 million and 112 million in 2100, a decline of 25 to 50%.<ref>{{cite web |title=World Population Prospects 2024 |url=https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/world-population-prospects-2024 |publisher=United Nations |access-date=2024-09-05 |archive-date=2024-07-15 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240715163803/https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/world-population-prospects-2024 |url-status=live }}</ref>

==Reactions==
Many Russian politicians have called for the reinstating of the [[childless tax]] in Russia that it used to have from the 1940s until the 1990s, due to declining birth rates.

In August 2022, Russia revived the Soviet-era [[Mother Heroine]] award for women with ten children.<ref>{{Cite web |last= |first= |date=2022-08-18 |title=Putin revives Stalin-era 'Mother Heroine' award for women with 10 children |url=https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/18/europe/putin-mother-heroine-award-decree-intl/index.html |access-date=2023-06-19 |website=CNN |language=en |archive-date=2023-02-17 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230217153027/https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/18/europe/putin-mother-heroine-award-decree-intl/index.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Putin revives Soviet 'Mother Heroine' award for women who have 10 children |date=17 August 2022 |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]] |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220819143212/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/17/russia-ukraine-putin-mother-heroine-award-children/ |archive-date=19 August 2022 |url-status=live |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/17/russia-ukraine-putin-mother-heroine-award-children/}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Reid |first=Jenni |date=2022-08-18 |title=Russia is offering a hero's medal and $16,000 to women who have 10 kids |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/18/russia-offers-mother-heroine-medal-and-16800-for-having-10-children.html |access-date=2023-06-19 |website=CNBC |language=en}}</ref>

==See also==
*[[Russian Cross]]
*[[Demographics of Russia]]
*[[Human capital flight]]
*[[Day of Conception]]
*[[Population decline]]
*[[Unpromising villages]]

==References==
{{Reflist}}

== Literature ==

* [http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/B08_16/Main.htm Демографический ежегодник России — 2008] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305012254/http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/B08_16/Main.htm |date=2016-03-05 }}
* [https://archive.today/20150208131034/http://www.twirpx.com/file/425788/ Демографический ежегодник России — 2010]
* Ермаков С. П., Захарова О. Д. Демографическое развитие России в первой половине XXI века. — М.: ИСПИ РАН, 2000.
* Антонов А. И., Медков В. М., Архангельский В. Н. Демографические процессы в России XXI века. — М.: «Грааль», 2002.
* Зиверт Ш., Захаров С., Клингхольц Р. [http://www.berlin-institut.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Russland/Russland_rus_online.pdf Исчезающая мировая держава] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191127203524/https://www.berlin-institut.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Russland/Russland_rus_online.pdf |date=2019-11-27 }} Берлин: Berlin Institute for Population and Development, 2011. {{ISBN|978-3-9812473-8-1}}
* Эберштадт Н. Демографический кризис в России в мирное время.
* Антонов А. И. [http://www.demographia.ru/articles_N/index.html?idR=20&idArt=1882 Институциональный кризис семьи и возможности его преодоления в России (часть 1)] // Демография.ру, 27.03.2011.
* Борисов В. Демографическая ситуация в современной России. Демографические исследования. 2006. No. 1.
* [[Залунин, Владимир Иванович|Залунин В. И.]], Калинина Т. А. [https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=15561563 Демографический кризис как социальный феномен и особенности его проявления в современной России] // Труды Дальневосточного государственного технического университета, No. 132, 2002. С. 171–174.
* Левина Е. И. [https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=12501832 Институт семьи в современной демографической ситуации в России] // Вестник Тамбовского университета. Серия: Гуманитарные науки, No. 12, 2008. С. 483–488.
* Луцкая Е. Е. [https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=1231251 Проблемы социально-демографического развития] // Социальные и гуманитарные науки. Отечественная и зарубежная литература. Серия 2: Экономика. Реферативный журнал, No. 4, 2001. С. 104–108.
* [[Сулакшин, Степан Степанович|Сулакшин С. С.]] [https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=12788907 Корреляционный факторный анализ российского демографического кризиса] // Власть, No. 1, 2007. С. 16–28.
* Ткаченко Н. Н. [https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=12919235 Демографическая политика России в контексте национальной безопасности] // Философия права, No. 3, 2009. С. 116–119.
* [[Николас Эберштадт]]. [http://www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id=446 Russia's Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications]
* Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, G. A. Cornia. Population crisis and rising mortality in transitional Russia. — in.: The mortality crisis in transitional economies. — Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000: p.&nbsp;253—279.
* А. Г. Вишневский, В. М. Школьников. [http://demoscope.ru/weekly/knigi/vish&shkol/smertnost.html Смертность в России. Главные группы риска и приоритеты действий]. — М.: Московский Центр Карнеги, Научные доклады, Вып. 19, 1997
* ''Белобородов И. И.'' Социальные технологии формирования семейно-демографической политики в России в условиях демографического кризиса // Диссертация на соискание учёной степени кандидата социологических наук / [[Российский государственный социальный университет]]. Москва, 2008.
* ''Моисеев М.'' [http://www.patriarchia.ru/db/text/112314.html Демографический кризис: в чём видят выход государство и Церковь] // Официальный сайт Московского Патриархата Русской Православной Церкви, 16.05.2006.
* ''Рязанцев С. В.'' [http://www.demographia.ru/articles_N/index.html?idR=20&idArt=1785 Эмиграция женщин из России]. Доклад на круглом столе «Семья и будущее цивилизаций» Мирового общественного форума «Диалог цивилизаций» (7—11.10.2010 г., Греция).
* [http://www.kroupnov.ru/demogr_doctrine.pdf Демографическая доктрина России: Проект для обсуждения] (Руководитель разработки — Ю. В. Крупнов) // Институт мирового развития, Москва, 2005.

{{Population Aging}}
{{Russia topics|state=collapsed}}

[[Category:Ageing by country]]
[[Category:Demographics of Russia]]