Editing Thought experiment (section)

===Predictive===
[[File:Prediction, Forecasting and Nowcasting.jpg|thumb|right|Temporal representation of prediction, forecasting and nowcasting<ref name="auto">{{Cite thesis |last=Yeates |first=Lindsay Bertram |title=Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach |date=2004 |url=http://archive.org/details/TECA2004 |page=145}}</ref>]]
The activity of [[prediction]] attempts to project the circumstances of the present into the future.<ref name="TECA145">See Yeates, Lindsay Bertram (2004). ''Thought Experimentation: A Cognitive Approach'' (Thesis). pp.&nbsp;[https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n147/mode/2up 139–140], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n149/mode/2up 141–142], [https://archive.org/details/TECA2004/page/n153/mode/1up 145].</ref><ref name="GJFb">Also, see Garbey, Joerger & Furr (2023), pp.&nbsp;112, 127.</ref> According to David Sarewitz and Roger Pielke (1999, p123), scientific prediction takes two forms:

# "The elucidation of invariant – and therefore predictive – principles of nature"; and
# "[Using] suites of observational data and sophisticated numerical models in an effort to foretell the behavior or evolution of complex phenomena".<ref>Sarewitz, D. & Pielke, R., "Prediction in Science and Policy", ''Technology in Society'', Vol.21, No.2, (April 1999), pp. 121–133.</ref>

Although they perform different social and scientific functions, the only difference between the qualitatively identical activities of ''predicting'', ''forecasting,'' and ''nowcasting'' is the distance of the speculated future from the present moment occupied by the user.<ref>Nowcasting (obviously based on forecasting) is also known as ''very-short-term forecasting''; thus, also indicating a ''very-short-term'', ''mid-range'', and ''long-range forecasting'' continuum.</ref> Whilst the activity of nowcasting, defined as "a detailed description of the current weather along with forecasts obtained by extrapolation up to 2 hours ahead", is essentially concerned with describing the current state of affairs, it is common practice to extend the term "to cover very-short-range forecasting up to 12 hours ahead" (Browning, 1982, p.ix).<ref>Browning, K.A. (ed.), ''Nowcasting'', Academic Press, (London), 1982.</ref><ref>Murphy, and Brown – Murphy, A.H. & Brown, B.G., "Similarity and Analogical Reasoning: A Synthesis", pp. 3–15 in Browning, K.A. (ed.),
''Nowcasting'', Academic Press, (London), 1982 – describe a large range of specific applications for meteorological nowcasting over a wide range of user demands:<br />
(1) Agriculture: (a) wind and precipitation forecasts for effective seeding and spraying from aircraft; (b) precipitation forecasts to minimize damage to seedlings; (c) minimum temperature, dewpoint, cloud cover, and wind speed forecasts to protect crops from frost; (d) maximum temperature forecasts to reduce adverse effects of high temperatures on crops and livestock; (e) humidity and cloud cover forecasts to prevent fungal disease crop losses; (f) hail forecasts to minimize damage to livestock and greenhouses; (g) precipitation, temperature, and dewpoint forecasts to avoid during- and after-harvest losses due to crops rotting in the field; (h) precipitation forecasts to minimize losses in drying raisins; and (i) humidity forecasts to reduce costs and losses resulting from poor conditions for drying tobacco.<br />
(2) Construction: (a) precipitation and wind speed forecasts to avoid damage to finished work (e.g. concrete) and minimize costs of protecting exposed surfaces, structures, and work sites; and (b) precipitation, wind speed, and high/low-temperature forecasts to schedule work in an efficient manner.<br />
(3) Energy: (a) temperature, humidity, wind, cloud, etc. forecasts to optimize procedures related to generation and distribution of electricity and gas; (b) forecasts of thunderstorms, strong winds, low temperatures, and freezing precipitation minimize damage to lines and equipment and
to schedule repairs.<br />
(4) Transportation: (a) ceiling height and visibility, winds and turbulence, and surface ice and snow forecasts minimize risk, maximize efficiency in pre-flight and in-flight decisions and other adjustments to weather-related fluctuations in traffic; (b) forecasts of wind speed and direction, as well as severe weather and icing conditions along flight paths facilitate optimal airline route planning; (c) forecasts of snowfall, precipitation, and other storm-related events allow truckers, motorists, and public transportation systems to avoid damage to weather-sensitive goods, select optimum routes, prevent accidents, minimize delays, and maximize revenues under conditions of adverse weather.<br />
(5) Public Safety & General Public: (a) rain, snow, wind, and temperature forecasts assist the general public in planning activities such as commuting, recreation, and shopping; (b) forecasts of temperature/humidity extremes (or significant changes) alert hospitals, clinics, and the public to weather conditions that may seriously aggravate certain health-related illnesses; (c) forecasts related to potentially dangerous or damaging natural events (e.g., tornados, severe thunderstorms, severe winds, storm surges, avalanches, precipitation, floods) minimize loss of life and property damage; and (d) forecasts of snowstorms, surface icing, visibility, and other events (e.g. floods) enable highway maintenance and traffic control organizations to take appropriate actions to reduce risks of traffic accidents and protect roads from damage.</ref>