Editing Glorious Revolution (section)

==English defensive strategy==
[[File:George Legge, 1st Baron Dartmouth by John Riley.jpg|thumb|right|upright=0.8|Admiral [[George Legge, 1st Baron Dartmouth|Dartmouth]], commander of the English fleet]]

Neither James nor Sunderland trusted Louis, correctly suspecting that his support would continue only so long as it coincided with French interests, while Mary of Modena claimed his warnings were simply an attempt to drag England into an unwanted alliance.{{Sfn|Miller|1978|p=194}} As a former naval commander, James appreciated the difficulties of a successful invasion, even in good weather, and as autumn approached, the likelihood seemed to diminish. With the Dutch on the verge of war with France, he did not believe the States General would allow William to make the attempt; if they did, his army and navy were strong enough to defeat it.{{Sfn|Miller|1978|p=195}}

Reasonable in theory, his reliance on the loyalty and efficiency of the military proved deeply flawed. Both the army and the navy remained overwhelmingly Protestant and anti-Catholic; in July, only personal intervention by James prevented a naval mutiny when a Catholic captain held [[Mass (liturgy)|Mass]] on his ship. The transfer of 2,500 Catholics from the [[Royal Irish Army]] to England in September led to clashes with Protestant troops, some of his most reliable units refused to obey orders, and many of their officers resigned.{{Sfn|Miller|1978|p=196}}

When James demanded the repatriation of all six regiments of the Scots Brigade in January 1688,{{Sfn|Troost|2001|p=196}} William refused but used the opportunity to purge those considered unreliable, a total of 104&nbsp;officers and 44&nbsp;soldiers.{{Sfn|Childs|1984|p=61}} Some may have been Williamite agents, such as [[Henry Belasyse (died 1717)|Colonel Belasyse]], a Protestant with over 15 years of service who returned to his family estates in [[Yorkshire]] and made contact with Danby. The promotion of Catholic former Brigade officers like [[Thomas Buchan]] and [[Alexander Cannon (general)|Alexander Cannon]] to command positions led to the formation of the Association of Protestant Officers, which included senior veterans like [[Charles Trelawny]], [[John Churchill, 1st Duke of Marlborough|John Churchill]], and [[Percy Kirke]].{{Sfn|Holmes|2009|p=136}}

On 14 August, Churchill offered his support to William, helping convince him it was safe to risk an invasion; although James was aware of the conspiracy, he took no action.{{Sfn|Troost|2005|pp=195–196}} One reason may have been fears over the impact on the army; with a notional strength of 34,000, it looked impressive on paper but morale was brittle while many were untrained or lacked weapons. It also had to fill policing roles previously delegated to the militia, which had been deliberately allowed to decay; most of the 4,000 regular troops brought from Scotland in October had to be stationed in London to keep order. In October, attempts were made to restore the militia but many members were reportedly so angry at the changes made to local corporations, James was advised it was better not to raise them.{{Sfn|Miller|1973|pp=671–672}}

[[File:Thomas Osborne, 1st Duke of Leeds by Sir Peter Lely.jpg|thumb|upright=0.7|left|[[Thomas Osborne, 1st Duke of Leeds|Lord Danby]], one of the Immortal Seven and William's agent in Northern England]]

Widespread discontent and growing hostility to the Stuart regime were particularly apparent in North-East and South-West England, the two landing places identified by William. A Tory whose brother [[Sir Jonathan Trelawny, 3rd Baronet|Jonathan]] was one of the Seven Bishops, Trelawny's commitment confirmed support from a powerful and well-connected [[West Country]] bloc, allowing access to the ports of [[Plymouth]] and Torbay. In the north, a force organised by Belasyse and Danby prepared to seize [[York]], its most important city, and [[Kingston upon Hull|Hull]], its largest port.{{Sfn|Harris|2006|p=285}}

Herbert had been replaced by [[George Legge, 1st Baron Dartmouth|Dartmouth]] as commander of the fleet when he defected in June but many captains owed him their appointments and were of doubtful loyalty. Dartmouth suspected Berkeley and [[Henry FitzRoy, 1st Duke of Grafton|Grafton]] of plotting to overthrow him; to monitor them, he placed their ships next to his and minimised contact between the other vessels to prevent conspiracy.{{Sfn|Davies|2004}} A lack of funds meant that excluding fireships and light scouting vessels, only 16 warships were available in early October, all [[third rate]]s or [[fourth rate]]s that were short of both men and supplies.{{Sfn|Burchett|1703|pp=14–17}}

While [[the Downs (ship anchorage)|the Downs]] was the best place to intercept a cross-Channel attack, it was also vulnerable to a surprise assault, even for ships fully manned and adequately provisioned. Instead, James placed his ships in a strong defensive position near [[Chatham Historic Dockyard|Chatham Dockyard]], believing the Dutch would seek to establish naval superiority before committing to a landing.{{Sfn|Rodger|2004|p=138}} While this had been the original plan, winter storms meant conditions deteriorated rapidly for those on the transports; William therefore decided to sail in convoy and avoid battle.{{Sfn|Prud'homme van Reine|2009|p=291}} The easterly winds that allowed the Dutch to cross prevented the Royal Navy leaving the [[Thames]] estuary and intervening.{{Sfn|Rodger|2004|p=138}}

The English fleet was outnumbered 2:1, undermanned, short of supplies, and in the wrong place. Key landing locations in the south-west and Yorkshire had been secured by sympathisers, while both army and navy were led by officers whose loyalty was questionable. Even early in 1686, foreign observers doubted the military would fight for James against a Protestant heir, and William claimed only to be securing the inheritance of his wife Mary. While still a dangerous undertaking, the invasion was less risky than it seemed.{{Sfn|Miller|1973|p=679}}