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=== Increasing risks due to climate change === Climate change promotes the type of weather that makes wildfires more likely. In some areas, an increase of wildfires has been attributed directly to climate change.<ref name=":0" />{{rp|247}} Evidence from Earth's past also shows more fire in warmer periods.<ref name="Jones-2022">{{cite web |last1=Jones |first1=Matthew |last2=Smith |first2=Adam |last3=Betts |first3=Richard |last4=Canadell |first4=Josep |last5=Prentice |first5=Collin |last6=Le Quéré |first6=Corrine |title=Climate Change Increases the Risk of Wildfires |url=https://sciencebrief.org/briefs/wildfires |access-date=16 February 2022 |website=ScienceBrief |archive-date=26 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240126143009/https://sciencebrief.org/briefs/wildfires }}</ref> Climate change increases [[evapotranspiration]]. This can cause vegetation and soils to dry out. When a fire starts in an area with very dry vegetation, it can spread rapidly. Higher temperatures can also lengthen the fire season. This is the time of year in which severe wildfires are most likely, particularly in regions where snow is disappearing.<ref name="Dunne-2020">{{Cite web |last=Dunne |first=Daisy |date=14 July 2020 |title=Explainer: How climate change is affecting wildfires around the world |url=https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-climate-change-is-affecting-wildfires-around-the-world |access-date=17 February 2022 |website=Carbon Brief |archive-date=19 December 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231219142921/https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-climate-change-is-affecting-wildfires-around-the-world/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Weather conditions are raising the risks of wildfires. But the total area burnt by wildfires has decreased. This is mostly because [[savanna]] has been converted to [[Croplands|cropland]], so there are fewer trees to burn.<ref name="Dunne-2020" /> [[Climate variability]] including [[heat wave]]s, [[drought]]s, and [[El Niño]], and regional weather patterns, such as high-pressure ridges, can increase the risk and alter the behavior of wildfires dramatically.<ref>{{cite web | url = http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20010915155936/http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/billionz.html | archive-date = 15 September 2001 | title = Chronological List of U.S. Billion Dollar Events | publisher = National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Satellite and Information Service | access-date = 4 February 2009 }}</ref><ref>McKenzie, ''et al.'', 893</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Provenzale|first1=Antonello|last2=Llasat|first2=Maria Carmen|last3=Montávez|first3=Juan Pedro|last4=Jerez|first4=Sonia|last5=Bedia|first5=Joaquín|last6=Rosa-Cánovas|first6=Juan José|last7=Turco|first7=Marco|date=2 October 2018|title=Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models|journal=Nature Communications|language=en|volume=9|issue=1|page=3821|doi=10.1038/s41467-018-06358-z|pmid=30279564|pmc=6168540|issn=2041-1723|bibcode=2018NatCo...9.3821T}}</ref> Years of high precipitation can produce rapid vegetation growth, which when followed by warmer periods can encourage more widespread fires and longer fire seasons.<ref>Graham, ''et al''., 2</ref> High temperatures dry out the fuel loads and make them more flammable, increasing tree mortality and posing significant risks to global forest health.<ref name="Hartmann">{{cite journal |last1=Hartmann |first1=Henrik |last2=Bastos |first2=Ana |last3=Das |first3=Adrian J. |last4=Esquivel-Muelbert |first4=Adriane |last5=Hammond |first5=William M. |last6=Martínez-Vilalta |first6=Jordi |last7=McDowell |first7=Nate G. |last8=Powers |first8=Jennifer S. |last9=Pugh |first9=Thomas A.M. |last10=Ruthrof |first10=Katinka X. |last11=Allen |first11=Craig D. |title=Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide |journal=Annual Review of Plant Biology |date=20 May 2022 |volume=73 |issue=1 |pages=673–702 |doi=10.1146/annurev-arplant-102820-012804 |pmid=35231182 |bibcode=2022ARPB...73..673H |osti=1876701 }}</ref><ref name="Brando">{{cite journal |last1=Brando |first1=Paulo M. |last2=Paolucci |first2=Lucas |last3=Ummenhofer |first3=Caroline C. |last4=Ordway |first4=Elsa M. |last5=Hartmann |first5=Henrik |last6=Cattau |first6=Megan E. |last7=Rattis |first7=Ludmila |last8=Medjibe |first8=Vincent |last9=Coe |first9=Michael T. |last10=Balch |first10=Jennifer |title=Droughts, Wildfires, and Forest Carbon Cycling: A Pantropical Synthesis |journal=Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences |date=30 May 2019 |volume=47 |issue=1 |pages=555–581 |doi=10.1146/annurev-earth-082517-010235 |bibcode=2019AREPS..47..555B |s2cid=189975585 |language=en |issn=0084-6597|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Anuprash|date=28 January 2022|title=What Causes Wildfires? Understand The Science Here|url=https://www.techiwiki.info/post/what-causes-wildfires-understand-the-science-here|access-date=14 February 2022|website=TechiWiki|language=en|archive-date=14 February 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220214182215/https://www.techiwiki.info/post/what-causes-wildfires-understand-the-science-here}}</ref> Since the mid-1980s, in the Western US, earlier snowmelt and associated warming has also been associated with an increase in length and severity of the wildfire season, or the most fire-prone time of the year.<ref>{{cite web|url= https://www.fs.fed.us/nwacfire/home/terminology.html#S|title= Fire Terminology|author= <!--Not stated-->|website= Fs.fed.us|access-date= 28 February 2019|archive-date= 7 July 2022|archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20220707020545/https://www.fs.fed.us/nwacfire/home/terminology.html#S|url-status= live}}</ref> A 2019 study indicates that the increase in [[California fires|fire risk in California]] may be partially attributable to [[Man-made climate change|human-induced climate change]].<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Williams|first1=A. Park|last2=Abatzoglou|first2=John T.|last3=Gershunov|first3=Alexander|last4=Guzman-Morales|first4=Janin|last5=Bishop|first5=Daniel A.|last6=Balch|first6=Jennifer K.|last7=Lettenmaier|first7=Dennis P.|author7-link=Dennis P. Lettenmaier|date=2019|title=Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California|journal=Earth's Future|language=en|volume=7|issue=8|pages=892–910|doi=10.1029/2019EF001210|bibcode=2019EaFut...7..892W|issn=2328-4277|doi-access=free}}</ref> In the summer of 1974–1975 (southern hemisphere), [[Australia]] suffered its worst recorded wildfire, when 15% of Australia's land mass suffered "extensive fire damage".<ref name="abs1995">{{cite web|url=https://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/6C98BB75496A5AD1CA2569DE00267E48|title=Bushfires – An Integral Part of Australia's Environment|work=1301.0 – Year Book Australia, 1995|publisher=[[Australian Bureau of Statistics]]|date=1 January 1995|author=Cheney, N.P.|access-date=14 January 2020|quote=In 1974–75 [...] in this season fires burnt over 117 million hectares or 15 per cent of the total land area of this continent.|archive-date=6 September 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230906100220/https://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/6C98BB75496A5AD1CA2569DE00267E48|url-status=live}}</ref> Fires that summer burned up an estimated {{convert|117|e6ha|e6acre km2 sqmi|abbr=off|lk=on}}.<ref name="AIDR">{{cite web |title=New South Wales, December 1974 Bushfire – New South Wales |url=https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-new-south-wales-1974/ |website=Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience |publisher=Government of Australia |access-date=13 January 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200113201506/https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/bushfire-new-south-wales-1974/ |archive-date=13 January 2020 |quote=Approximately 15 per cent of Australia's physical land mass sustained extensive fire damage. This equates to roughly around 117 million ha. |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Cole, Brendan|title=What Caused the Wildfires in Australia? Amid Worst Blazes for a Decade, 24 People are Charged with Arson|url=https://www.newsweek.com/australia-wildfires-arson-new-south-wales-police-1480733 |access-date=14 February 2020 |work=[[Newsweek]] |date=7 January 2020 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20200214151857/https://www.newsweek.com/australia-wildfires-arson-new-south-wales-police-1480733 |archive-date=14 February 2020 |quote=In 1974, 117 million hectares of land was burnt in wildfires in central Australia.}}</ref> In Australia, the annual number of hot days (above {{cvt|35|C|F|disp=or}}) and very hot days (above {{cvt|40|C|F|disp=or}}) has increased significantly in many areas of the country since 1950. The country has always had bushfires but in 2019, the extent and ferocity of these fires increased dramatically.<ref>[https://time.com/5735660/sydney-bushfires/ As Smoke From Bushfires Chokes Sydney, Australian Prime Minister Dodges on Climate Change] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191202070427/https://time.com/5735660/sydney-bushfires/|date=2 December 2019}}, Time 21 November 2019.</ref> For the first time catastrophic bushfire conditions were declared for Greater Sydney. New South Wales and Queensland declared a state of emergency but fires were also burning in South Australia and Western Australia.<ref>[https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/not-normal-climate-change-bushfire-web/ The facts about bushfires and climate change] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191216072021/https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/not-normal-climate-change-bushfire-web/|date=16 December 2019}}, Climate Council, 13 November 2019</ref> In [[2019 in climate change|2019, extreme heat and dryness]] caused massive [[Wildfires in 2019|wildfires]] in [[2019 Siberia wildfires|Siberia]], [[Deshka Landing Fire|Alaska]], [[2019 Canary Islands wildfires|Canary Islands]], [[2019–20 Australian bushfire season|Australia]], and in the [[2019 Amazon rainforest wildfires|Amazon rainforest]]. The fires in the latter were caused mainly by [[Deforestation of the Amazon rainforest|illegal logging]]. The smoke from the fires expanded on huge territory including major cities, dramatically reducing air quality.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Irfan |first1=Umair |title=Wildfires are burning around the world. The most alarming is in the Amazon rainforest. |url=https://www.vox.com/world/2019/8/20/20813786/wildfire-amazon-rainforest-brazil-siberia |access-date=23 August 2019 |agency=Vox |date=21 August 2019 |archive-date=13 September 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190913230057/https://www.vox.com/world/2019/8/20/20813786/wildfire-amazon-rainforest-brazil-siberia |url-status=live }}</ref> As of August 2020, the [[Wildfires in 2020|wildfires in that year]] were 13% worse than in 2019 due primarily to [[climate change]], [[deforestation]] and agricultural burning. The [[Amazon rainforest]]'s existence is threatened by fires.<ref name="watching-earth-burn">{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/opinion/climate-change-earth.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage |title=Opinion: Watching Earth Burn – For 10 days in September, satellites in orbit sent tragic evidence of climate change's destructive power. |first=Michael |last=Benson |newspaper=The New York Times |date=28 December 2020 |access-date=1 January 2021 |archive-date=4 April 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230404182945/https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/28/opinion/climate-change-earth.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://amazonwatch.org/news/2020/1210-resisting-another-record-breaking-year-of-deforestation-and-destruction-in-the-brazilian-amazon |title=Resisting Another Record-Breaking Year of Deforestation and Destruction in the Brazilian Amazon – While Brazilian authorities deny the impact of the criminal arson, Amazon Watch and our allies exposed and challenged the growing fires and deforestation in the Amazon |date=10 December 2020 |first=Ana Paula |last=Vargas |publisher=Amazon Watch |access-date=1 January 2021 |archive-date=12 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230912195753/https://amazonwatch.org/news/2020/1210-resisting-another-record-breaking-year-of-deforestation-and-destruction-in-the-brazilian-amazon |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Offensive against the Amazon: An incontrollable pandemic (commentary) |first1=Marcos |last1=Colón |first2=Luís |last2=de Camões Lima Boaventura |first3=Erik |last3=Jennings |date=1 June 2020 |url=https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/offensive-against-the-amazon-an-incontrollable-pandemic-commentary/ |access-date=1 January 2021 |archive-date=10 June 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230610102720/https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/offensive-against-the-amazon-an-incontrollable-pandemic-commentary/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |work=[[The Guardian]] |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/02/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-amazon-rainforest-protections |title=Jair Bolsonaro launches assault on Amazon rainforest protections – Executive order transfers regulation and creation of indigenous reserves to agriculture ministry controlled by agribusiness lobby |author=Dom Phillips |date=2 January 2019 |access-date=1 January 2021 |archive-date=26 April 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190426002549/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/02/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-amazon-rainforest-protections |url-status=live }}</ref> Record-breaking [[wildfires in 2021]] occurred in [[2021 Turkey wildfires|Turkey]], [[2021 Greece wildfires|Greece]] and [[2021 Russia wildfires|Russia]], thought to be linked to climate change.<ref>{{Cite news|date=11 August 2021|title=Wildfires: How are they linked to climate change?|language=en-GB|work=BBC News|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/58159451|access-date=6 October 2021|archive-date=12 October 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231012084749/https://www.bbc.com/news/58159451|url-status=live}}</ref>[[File:UC Irvine scientist James Randerson discusses new research linking ocean temperatures and fire seasons severity.ogv|thumb|Video to explain how increasing [[ocean temperature]]s are linked to fire-season severity.]]
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