Editing Thomas J. Watson (section)

==Famous attribution==
Although Watson is well known for his alleged 1943 statement, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers," there is scant evidence he said it. Author Kevin Maney tried to find the origin of the quote, but has been unable to locate any speeches or documents of Watson's that contain this, nor are the words present in any contemporary articles about IBM.

One of the first attributions is in the German magazine ''[[Der Spiegel]]'' of May 22, 1965, stating that IBM boss Thomas Watson had not been interested in the new machines initially, and when the first commercial calculation behemoths appeared in the early 1950s, filling whole floors with thousands of heat generating vacuum tubes, he estimated the demand by the US economy at a maximum of five.<ref>{{Cite news |date=1965-05-25 |title=Sieg der Mikrosekunde |url=https://www.spiegel.de/politik/sieg-der-mikrosekunde-a-3ccc2c00-0002-0001-0000-000046272769?context=issue |access-date=2024-08-15 |work=Der Spiegel |language=de |issn=2195-1349}}</ref>

Later attributions may be found in ''The Experts Speak'', a book written by [[Christopher Cerf (musician and television producer)|Christopher Cerf]] and [[Victor S. Navasky]] in 1984. Cerf and Navasky quote from a book written by Morgan and Langford, ''Facts and Fallacies''. Another early article source (May 15, 1985) is a column by Neil Morgan, a ''San Diego Evening Tribune'' writer who wrote: "Forrest Shumway, chairman of The Signal Cos., doesn't make predictions. His role model is Tom Watson, then IBM chairman, who said in 1958: 'I think there is a world market for about five computers.{{'"}} The earliest known citation on the Internet is from 1986 on [[Usenet]] in the signature of a poster from Convex Computer Corporation as {{" '}}I think there is a world market for about five computers' —Remark attributed to Thomas J. Watson (Chairman of the Board of International Business Machines), 1943". All these early quotes are questioned by Eric Weiss, an editor of the ''Annals of the History of Computing'' in ACS letters in 1985.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Weiss |first1=Eric A. |title=Information Sought on 'Only a Few Computers are Needed' Statement |journal=Communications of the ACM |date=1985 |volume=28 |issue=1 |page=2 |doi=10.1145/2465.314899 |doi-access=free}}</ref>

There are documented versions of similar quotes by other people in the early history of the computer. In 1946 [[Charles Galton Darwin|Sir Charles Darwin]] (grandson of the famous naturalist), head of Britain's NPL (National Physical Laboratory), where research into computers was taking place, wrote: <blockquote> it is very possible that ... one machine would suffice to solve all the problems that are demanded of it from the whole country.<ref>[[Jack Copeland|Copeland, Jack]] (2006). ''Colossus: The Secrets of Bletchley Park's Codebreaking Computers''. Oxford University Press. p.&nbsp;109</ref></blockquote>

In 1985 the story was discussed on Usenet (in net.misc), without Watson's name being attached. The original discussion has not survived, but an explanation has; it attributes a very similar quote to the [[University of Cambridge|Cambridge]] mathematician Professor [[Douglas Hartree]], around 1951:
<blockquote>I went to see Professor Douglas Hartree, who had built the first differential analyzers in England and had more experience in using these very specialized computers than anyone else. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that would ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers which were then being built—one in Cambridge, one in [[National Physical Laboratory, UK|Teddington]], and one in Manchester. No one else, he said, would ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them.<ref>Brader, Mark (July 10, 1985). [http://groups-beta.google.com/group/net.misc/msg/00c91c2cc0896b77 "Only 3 computers will be needed..."] (Forum post). net.misc. Citing [[B.V. Bowden|Lord Bowden]] (1970). ''American Scientist''. '''58''': 43–53)</ref><ref>[http://www.chilton-computing.org.uk/acl/literature/reports/p014.htm The Language of Computers] a transcript of a talk given by Lord Bowden of Chesterfield, at Brighton College of Technology. the first Richard Goodman Memorial Lecture</ref></blockquote>

[[Howard H. Aiken]] made a similar statement in 1952:
<blockquote>Originally one thought that if there were a half dozen large computers in this country, hidden away in research laboratories, this would take care of all requirements we had throughout the country.<ref>[[I. Bernard Cohen|Cohen, I. Bernard]] (1999). ''Howard Aiken: Portrait of a Computer Pioneer''. MIT Press. p.&nbsp;292</ref><ref>[[I. Bernard Cohen|Cohen, I. Bernard]] (1998). ''IEEE Annals of the History of Computing'' 20.3 pp.&nbsp;27–33</ref></blockquote>

The story already had been described as a myth in 1973; the ''Economist'' quoted a Mr. Maney as "revealing that Watson never made his oft-quoted prediction that there was 'a world market for maybe five computers.{{'"}}<ref>''The Economist'', '''367''' (8322–8326): 201</ref>

Since the attribution typically is used to demonstrate the fallacy of predictions, if Watson had made such a prediction in 1943, then, as [[Gordon Bell]] pointed out in his ACM 50 years celebration keynote, it would have held true for some ten years.<ref>{{Cite book|title=The Folly of Prediction|url=https://archive.org/details/talkingbacktomac0000denn/page/4|isbn=978-0-387-98413-1|first=Gordon|last=Bell|author-link=Gordon Bell|year=1999|work=Talking Back to the Machine|publisher=Copernicus|location=New York|page=[https://archive.org/details/talkingbacktomac0000denn/page/4 4]|editor-first=Peter J.|editor-last=Denning|editor-link=Peter J. Denning|access-date=June 17, 2013|url-access=registration}}</ref>

The IBM archives of Frequently Asked Questions<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20050514230534/http://www-03.ibm.com/ibm/history/documents/pdf/faq.pdf "IBM Frequently Asked Questions"]. p.&nbsp;26</ref> notes an inquiry about whether he said in the 1950s that he foresaw a market potential for only five electronic computers. The document says no, but quotes his son and then IBM President Thomas J. Watson Jr. at the annual IBM stockholders meeting, April 28, 1953, as speaking about the [[IBM 701]] Electronic Data Processing Machine, which it identifies as "the company's first production computer designed for scientific calculations". He said that "IBM had developed a paper plan for such a machine and took this paper plan across the country to some 20 concerns that we thought could use such a machine. I would like to tell you that the machine rents for between $12,000 and $18,000 a month, so it was not the type of thing that could be sold from place to place. But, as a result of our trip, on which we expected to get orders for five machines, we came home with orders for 18." Watson Jr. later gave a slightly different version of the story in his autobiography, where he said the initial market sampling indicated 11 firm takers and 10 more prospective orders.<ref name=MyLife>{{cite book|first1= Thomas J.|last1 = Watson Jr.|last2= Petre|first2=Peter|title = Father, Son & Co.: My Life at IBM and Beyond|publisher = Bantam Books|year= 1990}}</ref>