Editing Economy of Russia (section)

=== 2022–present ===
[[File:Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) - 2022 - World Bank.png|thumb|Like some other major economies like the United States, China, Brazil, Japan, Argentina and others, Russia has one of the world's lowest import dependence as a percentage of GDP among more than 200 countries and territories over the past 30 years. Sanctions, boycotts and disruption of supply chains in 2022 led to a drop of import from 20.7% (top-15) to 15.6% (top-5).<ref>{{cite web | url=https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240104132502/https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false | archive-date=4 January 2024 | title=World Bank Open Data }}</ref>]]
{{See also|Economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine|2022 Russian debt default}}

In 2022, [[Sanctions involving Russia|heavy sanctions]] were enacted due to the [[Russian invasion of Ukraine]] which will likely result in a steep recession.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Russian Invasion to Shrink Ukraine Economy by 45 Percent This Year |url=https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/10/russian-invasion-to-shrink-ukraine-economy-by-45-percent-this-year |access-date=15 June 2022 |website=World Bank |language=en |archive-date=9 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220709085502/https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/10/russian-invasion-to-shrink-ukraine-economy-by-45-percent-this-year |url-status=live }}</ref> Since early 2022, many official economic statistics have not been published.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2022/07/secret-economy-what-hiding-the-stats-does-for-russia?lang=en|title=Secret Economy: What Hiding the Stats Does for Russia|access-date=17 July 2022|archive-date=21 July 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220721074229/https://carnegieendowment.org/eurasiainsight/87432|url-status=live}}</ref> Sanctions also included asset freezes on the [[Russian Central Bank]],<ref>{{cite news |title=Germany open to Russian Central Bank asset seizure to finance Ukraine's recovery |url=https://www.euractiv.com/section/eastern-europe/news/germany-open-to-russian-central-bank-asset-seizure-to-finance-ukraines-recovery/ |work=Euractiv |date=17 May 2022 |access-date=26 February 2023 |archive-date=25 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221025192552/https://www.euractiv.com/section/eastern-europe/news/germany-open-to-russian-central-bank-asset-seizure-to-finance-ukraines-recovery/ |url-status=live }}</ref> which holds $630&nbsp;billion in [[List of countries by foreign-exchange reserves|foreign-exchange reserves]],<ref>{{cite news |last1=Davidson |first1=Kate |last2=Weaver |first2=Aubree Eliza |title=The West declares economic war on Russia |url=https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2022/02/28/the-west-declares-economic-war-on-russia-00012208 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220301/https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2022/02/28/the-west-declares-economic-war-on-russia-00012208 |archive-date=1 March 2022 |work=[[Politico]] |date=28 February 2022}}</ref> to prevent it from offsetting the effects of sanctions.<ref>{{cite news |last=Pop |first=Valentina |date=25 February 2022 |title=EU leaders agree more Russia sanctions, but save some for later |work=[[Financial Times]] |url=https://www.ft.com/content/8b99b33b-92b0-42f4-ac02-ecbc9fae4c4c |url-status=live |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220226/https://www.ft.com/content/8b99b33b-92b0-42f4-ac02-ecbc9fae4c4c |archive-date=26 February 2022 }}</ref>

According to most estimates, every day of the war in Ukraine costs Russia $500 million to $1 billion.<ref>{{cite news |title=Cost of War: How much Russia spending each day on war with Ukraine? |url=https://groundreport.in/cost-of-war-how-much-russia-spending-each-day-on-war-with-ukraine/ |work=Ground Report |date=28 May 2022 |access-date=26 February 2023 |archive-date=4 February 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230204222452/https://groundreport.in/cost-of-war-how-much-russia-spending-each-day-on-war-with-ukraine/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Ukraine war: Russia shells out $900 million a day over 'special military operation' |url=https://www.wionews.com/world/ukraine-war-russia-spends-900-million-a-day-on-its-military-operation-477085 |work=[[WION]] |date=7 May 2022 |access-date=26 February 2023 |archive-date=22 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221022221946/https://www.wionews.com/world/ukraine-war-russia-spends-900-million-a-day-on-its-military-operation-477085 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Moscow is having a hard time facing the costs of the Ukraine war |url=https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/22/moscow-is-having-a-hard-time-facing-the-costs-of-the-ukraine-war/ |work=[[Israel Hayom]] |date=22 August 2022 |access-date=26 February 2023 |archive-date=7 February 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230207014440/https://www.israelhayom.com/2022/08/22/moscow-is-having-a-hard-time-facing-the-costs-of-the-ukraine-war/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

On 27 June 2022, Russia [[Sovereign default|defaulted]] on part of its foreign currency, its first such default [[Repudiation of debt at the Russian Revolution|since 1918]].<ref>{{Cite news |date=25 June 2022 |title=Russia in debt default as payment deadline passes |language=en-GB |work=BBC News |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61929926 |access-date=16 November 2022 |archive-date=9 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220709085856/https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61929926 |url-status=live }}</ref>

In November 2022, it was reported that Russia had officially entered a recession as the [[Federal State Statistics Service (Russia)|Federal State Statistics Service]] had reported a national GDP loss for the second consecutive quarter.<ref>{{Cite web |date=16 November 2022 |title=Russia falls into recession |url=https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/11/16/Russia-falls-into-recession- |access-date=16 November 2022 |website=Al Arabiya English |language=en |archive-date=16 November 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221116191618/https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/11/16/Russia-falls-into-recession- |url-status=live }}</ref>

As part of the sanctions imposed on Russia, on 2 September 2022, the finance ministers of the [[G7]] group agreed to [[2022 Russian crude oil price cap sanctions|cap the price of Russian oil and petroleum products]], designed to allow Russia to maintain production, but limiting revenue from oil sales.<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia's main oil product is trading way below the $60 price cap as just a handful of buyers keep up trade with the heavily sanctioned nation |url=https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-crude-g7-price-cap-western-sanctions-eu-ban-2023-1 |work=Business Insider |date=9 January 2023 |access-date=26 February 2023 |archive-date=26 February 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230226050427/https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-oil-crude-g7-price-cap-western-sanctions-eu-ban-2023-1 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Western sanctions push Russia's energy revenues to lowest since 2020 |url=https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/western-sanctions-push-russias-energy-revenues-lowest-level-since-2020-2023-02-03/ |work=Reuters |date=3 February 2023 |access-date=26 February 2023 |archive-date=8 June 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230608111648/https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/western-sanctions-push-russias-energy-revenues-lowest-level-since-2020-2023-02-03/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

In 2022, ''[[The Economist]]'' calculated that Russia did graduate into the category of high-income economies by 2022, if counted at purchasing power parity rather than the exchange rate but could fall below the threshold due to the invasion of Ukraine.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/30/which-countries-have-escaped-the-middle-income-trap | title=Which countries have escaped the middle-income trap? | newspaper=The Economist | access-date=19 June 2023 | archive-date=19 June 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230619034134/https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/30/which-countries-have-escaped-the-middle-income-trap | url-status=live }}</ref> In December 2022, a study at Bank of Russia's Research and Forecasting Department, found that the import dependence of the Russian economy is relatively low, does not exceed the median for other countries, and the share of imports in most industries is lower than in other countries. The key explanation for this could be the low involvement of the Russian economy in global value supply chains and its focus on production of raw materials. However, 60% of Russia's imports come from the countries that have announced sanctions against Russia.<ref name="auto1">{{cite web | url=https://econs.online/en/articles/economics/russia-s-import-dependence/ | title=Russia's Import Dependence — ECONS.ONLINE | date=26 January 2023 | access-date=19 June 2023 | archive-date=18 June 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230618155005/https://econs.online/en/articles/economics/russia-s-import-dependence/ | url-status=live }}</ref>

[[TASS]] reported poor results for the Russian economy the first quarter of 2023 with revenue of 5.7 trillion roubles – down 21% (mainly due to falling oil revenue), expenditure 8.1 trillion roubles – up 34% (mainly due to increased military costs), creating a deficit 2.4 trillion roubles – ($29.4 billion)<ref>{{cite web |title=Russian budget deficit expected to reach $29.42 bln in Q1 — Finance Ministry |url=https://tass.com/economy/1601397 |website=TASS |date=7 April 2023 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://archive.today/20231202055945/https://tass.com/economy/1601397 |archive-date=2 December 2023 }}</ref>

Following [[Central Bank of Russia]] interventions, the exchange rate of the rouble against the dollar remained relatively stable in 2022, although in 2023 it started to decrease significantly, reaching RUB&nbsp;97 per USD&nbsp;1 on 15 August 2023. Both the interventions and the exchange rate decrease resulted in significant criticism of the Central Bank by Russian state propaganda.<ref>{{Cite web |title="The Most Powerful" Russian Currency and "Stable" Russian Economy: the Reality Behind the Propaganda |url=https://ukraineworld.org/articles/infowatch/russian-currency |date=18 August 2023 |first1=Alona |last1=Hryshko |access-date=18 August 2023 |website=UkraineWorld |language=en |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230818111740/https://ukraineworld.org/articles/infowatch/russian-currency |archive-date=18 August 2023 }}</ref> Quarter 2 of 2023 saw a 13% fall in the value of the rouble against the dollar and a current account surplus estimated in to be falling by 80% from the annual 2022 surplus of $233 billion.<ref>{{cite web |title=Russian Cash Flood Turns to $5.4 Billion Trickle, Strains Ruble |url=https://www.energyconnects.com/news/gas-lng/2023/july/russian-cash-flood-turns-to-5-4-billion-trickle-strains-ruble/ |agency=Bloomberg |website=Energy Connects |date=11 July 2023 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231118212001/https://www.energyconnects.com/news/gas-lng/2023/july/russian-cash-flood-turns-to-5-4-billion-trickle-strains-ruble/ |archive-date= 18 November 2023 }}</ref>

After 11 years of negotiations, on 8 June 2023, in Sochi, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan signed the [[Commonwealth of Independent States Agreement on Free Trade in Services, Establishment, Operations and Investment]] to partly integrate Uzbekistan and Tajikistan on the common standards of the WTO ([[General Agreement on Trade in Services]]) and the [[EAEU]] (some provisions were borrowed from EAEU law) even without their membership in the WTO (Uzbekistan) or the EAEU (Uzbekistan and Tajikistan).<ref>{{cite web | url=https://cis.minsk.by/reestrv2/doc/6738#documentCard | title=Единый реестр правовых актов и других документов Содружества Независимых Государств | access-date=4 January 2024 | archive-date=28 October 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231028103539/https://cis.minsk.by/reestrv2/doc/6738#documentCard | url-status=live }}</ref> The Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union has preserved international agreements on trade in services in the sphere of national competence of the member states therefore, the EAEU is not a party to the agreement.

In August and September 2023, the Central Bank of Russia started raising the key lending rate, ending up at 13% in September, while USD to RUB exchange rate remained at RUB&nbsp;95.<ref>{{Cite web |date=15 September 2023 |title=Russia raises interest rate to 13% as economy struggles |url=https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/15/russia-raises-interest-rate-to-13-as-economy-struggles |first1=Andrey |last1=Poznyakov |first2=Daniel |last2=Bellamy |access-date=18 September 2023 |website=euronews |language=en |archive-date=18 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230918084219/https://www.euronews.com/2023/09/15/russia-raises-interest-rate-to-13-as-economy-struggles |url-status=live }}</ref> As of June 2023 share of Russia's exports to EU dropped to 1.7% while Russia's imports from EU dropped to 1.5%.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Russia's share in EU trade falls below 2% - Products Eurostat News - Eurostat |url=https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20230901-1 |access-date=6 October 2023 |website=ec.europa.eu |date=September 2023 |archive-date=20 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230920221905/https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20230901-1 |url-status=live }}</ref> In October 2023 the "psychological barrier" of RUB&nbsp;100 per USD&nbsp;1 was crossed.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Marrow |first=Alexander |date=9 October 2023 |title=Russian rouble tumbles to over 18-month low vs dollar |language=en |work=Reuters |url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/russian-rouble-tumbles-over-18-month-low-vs-dollar-2023-10-09/ |access-date=9 October 2023 |archive-date=10 October 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231010184610/https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/russian-rouble-tumbles-over-18-month-low-vs-dollar-2023-10-09/ |url-status=live }}</ref> In July 2024 the Russian Central Bank raised the key interest rate to 18%.<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/26/world/europe/russia-inflation-interest-rate.html | title=Battling Inflation, Russia Raises Key Interest Rate to 18 Percent | work=The New York Times | date=26 July 2024 | last1=Troianovski | first1=Anton }}</ref>

The 2024 budget expects revenues of 35 trillion rubles ($349 billion) with expenditure of 36.6 trillion, based on a Urals oil forecast of $71.30 per barrel, a 90.1 rubles to USD&nbsp;1 exchange rate and inflation of 4.5%. Defence spending will double to 10.78 trillion, 29.4% of expenditure. Russia currently has a record low unemployment rate of just 3 percent,<ref>{{cite web |title=Russia's 2024 Budget Shows It's Planning for a Long War in Ukraine |url=https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2023/09/russias-2024-budget-shows-its-planning-for-a-long-war-in-ukraine?lang=en |date=11 October 2023 |access-date=23 October 2023 |archive-date=12 October 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231012082647/https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90753#:~:text=Planned%20expenditure%20is%2036.6%20trillion,percent%20of%20GDP%20in%202024. |url-status=live }}</ref> due to a demographic decline, demands of the war for industrial and military manpower, and large scale emigration.

In January 2025, it was reported that Russia had used a two-prong strategy to finance the large costs of the [[Russo-Ukrainian war]] since early 2022.  In addition to the official Russian government [[Military budget of Russia|defense budget]]
—direct financial expenditure for waging the war was estimated at US$250 billion through June 2024
,<ref name=ntv20240623>{{cite news |last=Brumme|first=Christoph |title=In der Ukraine kämpft Russland um Rohstoffe |url=https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Der-Krieg-gegen-die-Ukraine-ist-fuer-Russland-ein-Kampf-um-Rohstoffe-article25032685.html |date=23 June 2024 |access-date=25 January 2025 |work=[[n-tv]] |language=de}}</ref> rising to over 20% of annual GDP—an off-budget financing mechanism was employed to fund the war with over US$200 billion from preferential bank loans made to defence contractors and war-related businesses, loans compelled by the Russian government.<ref name=mt20250114>{{cite news |title=Russia's Hidden War Debt Creates a Looming Credit Crisis |url=https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/14/russias-hidden-war-debt-creates-a-looming-credit-crisis-a87606 |last=Aris|first=Ben |work=[[Moscow Times]] |date=14 January 2025 |access-date=24 January 2025 }}</ref><ref name=kpost20250115>{{cite news |title=Russia's Preferential Defense Loans a Ticking Bomb for Moscow's Economy |url=https://www.kyivpost.com/post/45424 |last=Hrazhdan|first=Olena |work=[[Kyiv Post]] |date=15 January 2025 |access-date=24 January 2025 }}</ref>

Russian economy had a significant [[Economic expansion|expansion]] in 2023, because it is [[Crowding out (economics)|crowded out]] by defense spending. This became an [[Output gap|inflationary output gap]], which lead to a stagnation, and became a [[recession]] in 2025. Until 2026 Russian economy is expected to have a stagnation, because of the shrinking of the output gap, with the risk of a [[stagflation]] still remaining.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Briancon |first=Pierre |title=Russia's economy would struggle to cope with peace |url=https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/russias-economy-would-struggle-cope-with-peace-2025-03-17/ |website=Reuters.com}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=BOFIT |title=BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2024–2026 |url=https://www.bofit.fi/en/forecasting/latest-forecast-for-russia/ |access-date=2025-03-21 |website=BOFIT |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-03-22 |title=RUSSIAN FEDERATION |url=https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/d5f32ef28464d01f195827b7e020a3e8-0500022021/related/mpo-rus.pdf |access-date=2025-03-22 |website=www.worldbank.org}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |title=Russia's Economic Gamble: The Hidden Costs of War-Driven Growth |url=https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/12/russia-economy-difficulties?lang=en |access-date=2025-03-21 |website=Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |language=en}}</ref>

<gallery>
File:Map of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita in 2022 by IMF.png|[[Gross domestic product]] (PPP) per capita in April 2022
File:Russiaunemployment.png|Unemployment rate of Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union
File:Russian inflation rate.webp|Russian inflation rate 2012–2022
</gallery>