Editing Black Death (section)

====Alternative explanations====
Researchers are hampered by a lack of reliable statistics from this period. Most work has been done on the spread of the disease in England, where estimates of overall population at the start of the plague vary by over 100%, as no census was undertaken in England between the time of publication of the [[Domesday Book]] of 1086 and the [[poll tax#Great Britain|poll tax]] of the year 1377.{{sfn|Ziegler|1998|p=233}} Estimates of plague victims are usually [[extrapolation|extrapolate]]d from figures for the clergy.

[[Mathematical modelling]] is used to match the spreading patterns and the means of [[transmission (medicine)|transmission]]. In 2018 researchers suggested an alternative model in which ''"the disease was spread from human fleas and body lice to other people".'' The second model claims to better fit the trends of the plague's death toll, as the rat-flea-human hypothesis would have produced a delayed but very high spike in deaths, contradicting historical death data.<ref>{{cite news| vauthors = Guarino B |date=2018-01-16|newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/01/16/the-classic-explanation-for-the-black-death-plague-is-wrong-scientists-say/|title=The classic explanation for the Black Death plague is wrong, scientists say|archive-url=https://archive.today/20180122005044/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2018/01/16/the-classic-explanation-for-the-black-death-plague-is-wrong-scientists-say/|archive-date=22 January 2018|access-date=2 April 2020|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=Rats May Not Be to Blame for Spreading the 'Black Death'| vauthors = Rettner R |publisher=[[Live Science]]|date=2018-01-17|url=https://www.livescience.com/61444-black-death-cause-found-transmission.html|access-date=2 April 2020|archive-date=28 March 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200328004408/https://www.livescience.com/61444-black-death-cause-found-transmission.html|url-status=live}}</ref> The Oriental rat flea has poor survival in cooler climates and reevaluation suggests the [[humean flea]] was the principal vector of plague epidemics in Northern Europe.<ref name="durden">{{cite book | last=Durden | first=Lance A. | last2=Hinkle | first2=Nancy C. | title=Medical and Veterinary Entomology | chapter=Fleas (Siphonaptera) | publisher=Elsevier | date=2019 | isbn=978-0-12-814043-7 | doi=10.1016/b978-0-12-814043-7.00010-8 | page=145–169}}</ref>

[[Lars Walløe]] argued that these authors "take it for granted that Simond's infection model, black rat → rat flea → human, which was developed to explain the spread of plague in India, is the only way an epidemic of ''Yersinia pestis'' infection could spread".{{sfn|Walløe|2008|p=69}} Similarly, [[Monica Green (historian)|Monica Green]] has argued that greater attention is needed to the range of (especially non-[[commensalism|commensal]]) animals that might be involved in the transmission of plague.{{sfn|Green|2015|pages=31ff}}

Archaeologist Barney Sloane has argued that there is insufficient evidence of the extinction of numerous rats in the archaeological record of the medieval waterfront in London, and that the disease spread too quickly to support the thesis that ''Y. pestis'' was spread from fleas on rats; he argues that transmission must have been person to person.<ref>{{Cite news | vauthors = Kennedy M |title=Black Death study lets rats off the hook |journal=The Guardian |isbn=978-0-7524-2829-1 |place=London |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/aug/17/black-death-rats-off-hook |year=2011 |access-date=14 December 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130827191239/http://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/aug/17/black-death-rats-off-hook |archive-date=27 August 2013 |url-status=live }}</ref>{{sfn|Sloane|2011}} This theory is supported by research in 2018 which suggested transmission was more likely by body lice and [[Oriental rat flea|flea]]s during the [[second plague pandemic]].{{sfn|Dean|Krauer|Walløe|Lingjærde|2018}}