Editing Surtsey (section)

===Future===
[[File:Small islands in the Vestmannaeyjar archipelago, Iceland.jpg|thumb|right|250px|Other islands in the archipelago show the effects of centuries of erosion]]

As a suspected part of the [[Iceland plume]], this island is unlikely to disappear entirely in the near future. The eroded area consisted mostly of loose [[tephra]], easily washed away. Most of the remaining area is capped by hard lava flows, which are much more resistant to erosion. In addition, complex chemical reactions within the loose tephra within the island have gradually formed highly erosion-resistant [[tuff]] material, in a process known as [[Palagonite|palagonitization]]. On Surtsey, this process has happened quite rapidly, due to high temperatures not far below the surface.<ref>{{citation|last=Jakobssen|first=Sveinn P.|title=The Formation of Palagonite Tuffs|url=http://www.surtsey.is/pp_ens/geo_4.htm|publisher=The Surtsey Research Society|access-date=2008-07-08|date=2007-05-06}}</ref>

Estimates of how long Surtsey will survive are based on the rate of erosion seen up to the present day. Assuming that the current rate does not change, the island will be mostly at or below sea level by 2100. However, the rate of erosion is likely to slow as the tougher core of the island is exposed: an assessment assuming that the rate of erosion will slow exponentially suggests that the island will survive for many centuries.<ref name="Garvin 2000" /> An idea of what it will look like in the future is given by the other small islands in the Vestmannaeyjar archipelago, which formed in the same way as Surtsey several thousand years ago, and have eroded away substantially since they were formed.<ref name="jakobssen3" />