Editing McKinley Tariff (section)

==Effects==
{{Unreferenced section|date=December 2024}}
[[Douglas Irwin]]'s 1998 paper<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Irwin |first=Douglas A. |date=1998 |title=Higher Tariffs, Lower Revenues? Analyzing the Fiscal Aspects of "The Great Tariff Debate of 1888" |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/2566253 |journal=The Journal of Economic History |volume=58 |issue=1 |pages=59–72 |jstor=2566253 |issn=0022-0507}}</ref> examines the validity of the opposing tariff hypotheses posed by Republicans and Democrats in 1890. Irwin analyzed historical data to estimate import demand elasticities and export supply elasticities for the United States in the years before 1888. He calculated that tariffs had not yet reached the maximum revenue rate, suggesting that a reduction, rather than an increase, in tariffs would have reduced both revenue and the federal surplus. This finding supported the Democrats’ hypothesis and refuted the Republicans’.

Irwin further analyzed tariff revenue data and observed that total revenue decreased by about 4%, from $225 million to $215 million, after the 1890 Tariff increased rates. He attributed this drop largely to the provision that moved raw sugar to the duty-free list. Since sugar was the top revenue-generating import at the time, making it duty-free caused a significant revenue reduction. Irwin also calculated that if sugar were excluded from import calculations, tariff revenue actually increased by 7.8%, from $170 million to $183 million. He concluded that the tariff hastened the development of domestic tinplate production by about a decade but argued that the benefit to this industry was outweighed by the overall cost to consumers.