Editing Demographics of China (section)

==Population control==
{{See also|One-child policy|Two-child policy}}{{More citations needed|section|date=September 2024}}[[File:Birth rate in China.svg|upright=2.04|thumbnail|right|Birth rate in China]]
Initially, China's post-1949 leaders were ideologically disposed to view a large population as an asset. But the liabilities of a large, rapidly growing population soon became apparent. For one year, starting in August 1956, vigorous support was given to the Ministry of Public Health's mass [[birth control]] efforts. These efforts, however, had little impact on fertility. After the interval of the [[Great Leap Forward]], Chinese leaders again saw rapid population growth as an obstacle to development, and their interest in birth control revived. In the early 1960s, schemes somewhat more muted than during the first campaign, emphasized the virtues of late marriage. Birth control offices were set up in the central government and some provincial-level governments in 1964. The second campaign was particularly successful in the cities, where the birth rate was cut in half during the 1963–66 period. The upheaval of the [[Cultural Revolution]] brought the program to a halt, however.{{citation needed|date=July 2024}}

In 1972 and 1973 the party mobilized its resources for a nationwide birth control campaign administered by a group in the [[State Council of the People's Republic of China|State Council]]. Committees to oversee birth control activities were established at all administrative levels and in various collective enterprises. This extensive and seemingly effective network covered both the rural and the urban population. In urban areas public security headquarters included population control sections. In rural areas the country's "[[barefoot doctor]]s" distributed information and contraceptives to [[people's commune]] members. By 1973 [[Mao Zedong]] was personally identified with the family planning movement, signifying a greater leadership commitment to controlled population growth than ever before. Yet until several years after Mao's death in 1976, the leadership was reluctant to put forth directly the rationale that population control was necessary for economic growth and improved [[living standards]].{{citation needed|date=February 2021}}

Population growth targets were set for both administrative units and individual families. In the mid-1970s the maximum recommended family size was two children in cities and three or four in the country. In 1979 the government began advocating a one-child limit for both rural and urban areas and has generally set a maximum of two children in special circumstances. As of 1986 the policy for minority nationalities was two children per couple, three in special circumstances, and no limit for ethnic groups with very small populations. The overall goal of the one-child policy was to keep the total population within 1.2&nbsp;billion through the year 2000, on the premise that the [[Four Modernizations]] program would be of little value if population growth was not brought under control.{{citation needed|date=July 2024}}

Under the one-child program, a sophisticated system rewarded those who observed the policy and penalized those who did not. Through this policy, the rate of increasing population was tempered after the penalties were made. Couples with only one child were given a "one-child certificate" entitling them to such benefits as cash bonuses, longer [[maternity leave]], better [[child care]], and preferential housing assignments. In return, they were required to pledge that they would not have more children. In the countryside, there was great pressure to adhere to the one-child limit. Because the rural population accounted for approximately 60% of the total, the effectiveness of the one-child policy in rural areas was considered the key to the success or failure of the program as a whole.{{citation needed|date=July 2024}}

In rural areas the day-to-day work of family planning was done by [[Professional revolutionaries|cadres]] at the team and brigade levels who were responsible for women's affairs and by health workers. The women's team leader made regular household visits to keep track of the status of each family under her jurisdiction and collected information on which women were using [[contraceptives]], the methods used, and which had become pregnant. She then reported to the brigade women's leader, who documented the information and took it to a monthly meeting of the commune birth-planning committee. According to reports, ceilings or quotas had to be adhered to; to satisfy these cutoffs, unmarried young people were persuaded to postpone marriage, couples without children were advised to "wait their turn," women with unauthorized pregnancies were pressured to have abortions, and those who already had children were urged to use [[contraception]] or undergo [[Compulsory sterilization|sterilization]]. Couples with more than one child were exhorted to be sterilized.{{citation needed|date=February 2021}}

The one-child policy enjoyed much greater success in urban than in rural areas. Even without state intervention, there were compelling reasons for urban couples to limit the family to a single child. Raising a child required a significant portion of family income, and in the cities a child did not become an economic asset until he or she entered the work force at age sixteen. Couples with only one child were given preferential treatment in housing allocation. In addition, because city dwellers who were employed in state enterprises received pensions after retirement, the sex of their first child was less important to them than it was to those in rural areas.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-01-03 |title=One-child policy {{!}} Definition, Start Date, Effects, & Facts {{!}} Britannica |url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/one-child-policy |access-date=2024-01-22 |website=www.britannica.com |language=en |archive-date=30 May 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190530075949/https://www.britannica.com/topic/one-child-policy |url-status=live}}</ref>

Numerous reports surfaced of coercive measures used to achieve the desired results of the one-child policy. The alleged methods ranged from intense psychological pressure to the use of physical force, including some grisly accounts of forced abortions and infanticide. Chinese officials admitted that isolated, uncondoned abuses of the program occurred and that they condemned such acts, but they insisted that the family planning program was administered on a voluntary basis using persuasion and economic measures only. International reaction to the allegations were mixed. The [[UN Fund for Population Activities]] and the [[International Planned Parenthood Federation]] were generally supportive of China's family planning program. The [[United States Agency for International Development]], however, withdrew US$10&nbsp;million from the Fund in March 1985 based on allegations that coercion had been used.{{citation needed|date=July 2024}}

Observers suggested that an accurate assessment of the one-child program would not be possible until all women who came of childbearing age in the early 1980s passed their fertile years. As of 1987 the one-child program had achieved mixed results. In general, it was very successful in almost all urban areas but less successful in rural areas.{{citation needed|date=February 2021}}

Rapid fertility reduction associated with the one-child policy has potentially negative results. For instance, in the future the elderly might not be able to rely on their children to care for them as they have in the past, leaving the state to assume the expense, which could be considerable. Based on United Nations and Chinese government statistics, it was estimated in 1987 that by 2000 the population 60 years and older (the retirement age is 60 in urban areas) would number 127 million, or 10.1% of the total population; the projection for 2025 was 234&nbsp;million elderly, or 16.4%. According to projections based on the 1982 census, if the one-child policy were maintained to the year 2000, 25% of China's population would be age 65 or older by 2040. In 2050, the number of people over 60 is expected to increase to 430 million.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Du |first1=Peng |last2=Yang |first2=Hui |date=2010 |title=China's population ageing and active ageing |journal=China Journal of Social Work |volume=3 |issue=2–3 |pages=139–152 |doi=10.1080/17525098.2010.492636 |s2cid=153569892}}</ref> Even though China has already opened two-child policy since 2016, data shows that the second-child policy cannot&nbsp;stop&nbsp;the problem of an aging population. China needs to find an appropriate birth policy to optimize the demographic dividend, which refers to the proportion of labor-age population.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Wu |first1=Pengkun |last2=Wu |first2=Chong |last3=Wu |first3=Yuanyuan |date=June 2018 |title=Reforming Path of China's Fertility Policy in Stabilizing Demographic Dividends Perspective |url=http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11205-017-1642-0 |journal=Social Indicators Research |language=en |volume=137 |issue=3 |pages=1225–1243 |doi=10.1007/s11205-017-1642-0 |s2cid=157651164 |issn=0303-8300 |access-date=6 November 2020 |archive-date=3 June 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240603023126/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11205-017-1642-0 |url-status=live}}</ref> On the other hand, the higher house prices squeeze the marriage in China. The house price plays an important role on the influence of marriage and fertility. The increasing house price leads to the lower marriage rate and cause the other serious social problems in China.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Su |first1=Chi-Wei |last2=Khan |first2=Khalid |last3=Hao |first3=Lin-Na |last4=Tao |first4=Ran |last5=Peculea |first5=Adelina Dumitrescu |date=2020-01-01 |title=Do house prices squeeze marriages in China? |journal=Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja |language=en |volume=33 |issue=1 |pages=1419–1440 |doi=10.1080/1331677X.2020.1746190 |s2cid=219065105 |issn=1331-677X |doi-access=free}}</ref>

In 2024, [[United Nations]] researchers forecast China's population to fall to 639&nbsp;million by 2100.<ref name=":4">{{Cite news |last1=Qi |first1=Liyan |last2=Li |first2=Ming |date=July 11, 2024 |title=The One-Child Policy Supercharged China's Economic Miracle. Now It's Paying the Price. |url=https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-population-slowing-economy-7ff938e5 |url-access=subscription |access-date=July 12, 2024 |work=[[The Wall Street Journal]] |quote=...the U.N. expects China’s population to drop from 1.4 billion today to 639 million by 2100, a much steeper drop than the 766.7 million it predicted just two years ago. |archive-date=12 July 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240712155824/https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-population-slowing-economy-7ff938e5 |url-status=live}}</ref> The same year, researchers from [[Victoria University (Australia)|Victoria University]] and the [[Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences]] forecast that China's population will fall to approximately 525&nbsp;million by 2100 at current rates.<ref name=":2">{{Cite news |last=Qi |first=Liyan |date=February 12, 2024 |title=How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust |url=https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-population-births-economy-one-child-c5b95901 |url-access=subscription |access-date=2024-02-13 |work=[[The Wall Street Journal]] |language=en-US |archive-date=13 February 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240213172910/https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-population-births-economy-one-child-c5b95901 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref name=":4" /> This revision, reducing the population estimate to 525 million from a previous forecast of 597&nbsp;million by 2100, indicates a sharper decline than previously anticipated.<ref name=":2" />