Editing Robben Island (section)

==Climate change==
{{Main|Sea level rise}}
In 2022, the [[IPCC Sixth Assessment Report]] included Robben Island in the list of African cultural sites which would be threatened by [[flooding]] and [[coastal erosion]] by the end of the century, but only if [[climate change]] followed [[Representative Concentration Pathway#RCP 8.5|RCP 8.5]], which is the scenario of high and continually increasing [[greenhouse gas]] emissions associated with the warming of over 4{{Nbsp}}°C.,<ref>Trisos, C.H., I.O. Adelekan, E. Totin, A. Ayanlade, J. Efitre, A. Gemeda, K. Kalaba, C. Lennard, C. Masao, Y. Mgaya, G. Ngaruiya, D. Olago, N.P. Simpson, and S. Zakieldeen 2022: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter09.pdf Chapter 9: Africa]. In [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/ Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability] [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 2043–2121</ref> and is no longer considered very likely.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Hausfather|first1=Zeke|last2=Peters|first2=Glen|title=Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading|journal=Nature|date=29 January 2020|volume=577|issue=7792|pages=618–20|doi=10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3|pmid=31996825|bibcode=2020Natur.577..618H|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Hausfather|first1=Zeke|last2=Peters|first2=Glen|title=RCP8.5 is a problematic scenario for near-term emissions|journal=PNAS|date=20 October 2020|volume=117|issue=45|pages=27791–27792|doi=10.1073/pnas.2017124117 |pmid=33082220 |pmc=7668049 |bibcode=2020PNAS..11727791H |doi-access=free}}</ref> The other, more plausible scenarios result in lower warming levels and consequently lower sea level rise: yet, sea levels would continue to increase for about 10,000 years under all of the scenarios.<ref>{{cite book |url=https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Full_Report.pdf |title=Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |date=August 2021 |publisher=IPCC |page=TS14 |access-date=12 November 2021}}</ref> Even if the warming is limited to 1.5{{Nbsp}}°C, global sea level rise is still expected to exceed {{convert|2-3|m|ft|0|abbr=on}} after 2000 years (and higher warming levels will see larger increases by then), consequently exceeding 2100 levels of sea level rise under RCP 8.5 (~{{convert|0.75|m|ft|0|abbr=on}} with a range of {{convert|0.5-1|m|ft|0|abbr=on}}) well before the year 4000.<ref>IPCC, 2021: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf Summary for Policymakers]. In: [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.</ref>