Editing Moore's law (section)

== Forecasts and roadmaps ==
In April 2005, [[Gordon Moore]] stated in an interview that the projection cannot be sustained indefinitely: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens." He also noted that transistors eventually would reach the limits of miniaturization at [[atom]]ic levels:
{{Blockquote|In terms of size [of transistors] you can see that we're approaching the size of atoms which is a fundamental barrier, but it'll be two or three generations before we get that far—but that's as far out as we've ever been able to see. We have another 10 to 20 years before we reach a fundamental limit. By then they'll be able to make bigger chips and have transistor budgets in the billions.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.techworld.com/news/operating-systems/moores-law-is-dead-says-gordon-moore-3576581/| title =Moore's Law is dead, says Gordon Moore|date=2005-04-13|  first = Manek | last = Dubash| work =Techworld| access-date = 2006-06-24}}</ref>|author=Gordon Moore in 2006}}In 2016 the [[International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors]], after using Moore's Law to drive the industry since 1998, produced its final roadmap. It no longer centered its research and development plan on Moore's law. Instead, it outlined what might be called the More than Moore strategy in which the needs of applications drive chip development, rather than a focus on semiconductor scaling. Application drivers range from smartphones to AI to data centers.<ref name=":0">{{cite journal|last=Waldrop|first=M. Mitchell|date=2016-02-09|title=The chips are down for Moore's law|journal=Nature|volume=530|issue=7589|pages=144–147|doi=10.1038/530144a|pmid=26863965|issn=0028-0836|bibcode=2016Natur.530..144W|doi-access=free}}</ref>

IEEE began a road-mapping initiative in 2016, Rebooting Computing, named the [[International Roadmap for Devices and Systems]] (IRDS).<ref name="IRDS">{{cite web|url=https://rebootingcomputing.ieee.org/images/files/pdf/rc_irds.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160527224136/http://rebootingcomputing.ieee.org/images/files/pdf/rc_irds.pdf |archive-date=2016-05-27 |url-status=live|title=IRDS launch announcement 4 MAY 2016}}</ref>

Some forecasters, including Gordon Moore,<ref name=TheEconomist_Cross >{{cite news|last=Cross |first=Tim |title=After Moore's Law |newspaper=The Economist |url= http://www.economist.com/technology-quarterly/2016-03-12/after-moores-law |publisher=The Economist Technology Quarterly |quote= chart: "Faith no Moore" Selected predictions for the end of Moore's law |access-date=2016-03-13}}</ref> predict that Moore's law will end by around 2025.<ref>{{cite arXiv|last=Kumar|first=Suhas|title=Fundamental Limits to Moore's Law|year=2012|eprint=1511.05956|class=cond-mat.mes-hall}}</ref><ref name=":0" /><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/27/technology/smaller-faster-cheaper-over-the-future-of-computer-chips.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-2&action=click&contentCollection=Business%20Day&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article&_r=0 |title=Smaller, Faster, Cheaper, Over: The Future of Computer Chips |newspaper=New York Times |date=September 2015}}</ref> Although Moore's Law will reach a physical limit, some forecasters are optimistic about the continuation of technological progress in a variety of other areas, including new chip architectures, quantum computing, and AI and machine learning.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://medium.com/@sgblank/the-end-of-more-the-death-of-moores-law-5ddcfd8439dd|title = The End of More – the Death of Moore's Law| work=Medium |date = 6 March 2020 | last1=Blank | first1=Steve }}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/04/23/these-3-computing-technologies-will-beat-moores-law/?sh=27d34cd137b0|title=These 3 Computing Technologies Will Beat Moore's Law|website=[[Forbes]]}}</ref> [[Nvidia]] CEO [[Jensen Huang]] declared Moore's law dead in 2022;<ref name="nvidia">{{cite web |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moores-laws-dead-nvidia-ceo-jensen-says-in-justifying-gaming-card-price-hike-11663798618 |title='Moore's Law's dead,' Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says in justifying gaming-card price hike |date=2022-09-22 |accessdate=2022-09-23 |language=en-US |publisher=[[MarketWatch]] |last=Witkowski |first=Wallace}}</ref> several days later, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger countered with the opposite claim.<ref name="intel">{{cite web |url=https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/09/the-intel-arc-a770-gpu-launches-october-12-for-329/ |title=Intel: 'Moore's law is not dead' as Arc A770 GPU is priced at $329 |date=2022-09-27 |accessdate=2022-09-28 |language=en-US |publisher=[[Ars Technica]] |last=Machkovech |first=Sam}}</ref>