Editing Extreme poverty (section)

==Current trends==
===Getting to zero===
[[File:USAID Projections.png|upright=2.0|right|thumb|Various projections for the prospect of ending extreme poverty by 2030. The ''y''-axis represents the percentage of people living in extreme poverty worldwide.]]
[[File:Extreme-Poverty-projection-by-the-World-Bank-to-2030.png|thumb|Extreme poverty projection by the World Bank to 2030]]

Using the World Bank definition of $1.90/day, {{as of|2021|lc=y}}, roughly 710 million people remained in extreme poverty (or roughly 1 in 10 people worldwide).<ref>{{Cite web|title=World Poverty Clock|url=https://worldpoverty.io/|access-date=2021-09-01|website=worldpoverty.io|language=en}}</ref> Nearly half of them live in India and China, with more than 85% living in just 20 countries. Since the mid-1990s, there has been a steady decline in both the worldwide poverty rate and the total number of extreme poor. In 1990, the percentage of the global population living in extreme poverty was 43%, but in 2011, that percentage had dropped down to 21%.<ref name="usaid1"/> This halving of the extreme poverty rate falls in line with the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) proposed by former UN Secretary-General [[Kofi Annan]], who called on the international community at the turn of the century to reduce the percentage of people in extreme poverty by half by 2015.<ref name="Annan_2000"/>

This reduction in extreme poverty took place most notably in China, Indonesia, India, Pakistan and Vietnam. These five countries accounted for the alleviation of 715 million people out of extreme poverty between 1990 and 2010&nbsp;– more than the global net total of roughly 700 million. This statistical oddity can be explained by the fact that the number of people living in extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa rose from 290 million to 414 million over the same period.<ref name="autogenerated1">United Nations.[https://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/report-2013/mdg-report-2013-english.pdf "The Millennium Development Goals Report"], 2013.</ref> However, there have been many positive signs for extensive, global [[poverty reduction]] as well. Since 1999, the total number of extreme poor has declined by an average of 50 million per year. Moreover, in 2005, for the first time in recorded history, poverty rates began to fall in every region of the world, including Africa.<ref>Rajiv Shah.[http://www.usaid.gov/news-information/speeches/nov-21-2013-administrator-rajiv-shah-brookings-institution-ending-extreme-poverty "Remarks by Administrator Rajiv Shah at the Brookings Institution: Ending Extreme Poverty"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140706111629/http://www.usaid.gov/news-information/speeches/nov-21-2013-administrator-rajiv-shah-brookings-institution-ending-extreme-poverty |date=6 July 2014 }}, USAID. 21 November 2013.</ref>

As aforementioned, the number of people living in extreme poverty has reduced from 1.9 billion to 766 million over the span of the last decades. If we remain on our current trajectory, many economists predict we could reach global zero by 2030–2035, thus ending extreme poverty. Global zero entails a world in which fewer than 3% of the global population lives in extreme poverty (projected under most optimistic scenarios to be fewer than 200 million people). This zero figure is set at 3% in recognition of the fact that some amount of frictional (temporary) poverty will continue to exist, whether it is caused by political conflict or unexpected economic fluctuations, at least for the foreseeable future.<ref name="worldbank1">World Bank.[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPROSPECTS/Resources/334934-1327948020811/8401693-1397074077765/Prosperity_for_All_Final_2014.pdf "Prosperity for All: Ending Extreme Poverty"], Spring 2014.</ref> However, the [[Brookings Institution]] notes that any projection about poverty more than a few years into the future runs the risk of being highly uncertain. This is because changes in consumption and distribution throughout the developing world over the next two decades could result in monumental shifts in global poverty, for better or worse.<ref>Laurence Chandy et al. [http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2013/04/ending%20extreme%20poverty%20chandy/the_final_countdown.pdf "The Final Countdown: Prospects for Ending Extreme Poverty"]. {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150228203206/http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2013/04/ending%20extreme%20poverty%20chandy/the_final_countdown.pdf |date=28 February 2015 }}. Brookings Institution. April 2013.</ref>

Others are more pessimistic about this possibility, predicting a range of 193 million to 660 million people still living in extreme poverty by 2035. Additionally, some believe the rate of poverty reduction will slow down in the developing world, especially in Africa, and as such it will take closer to five decades to reach global zero.<ref>Alex Thier. [https://web.archive.org/web/20140706155201/http://blog.usaid.gov/2013/11/global-effort-to-end-extreme-poverty/ "A Global Effort to End Extreme Poverty"]. USAID. 22 November 2013.</ref> Despite these reservations, several prominent international and national organizations, including the UN, the World Bank and the United States Federal Government (via USAID), have set a target of reaching global zero by the end of 2030.

More recent analyses in 2022 on [[real wages]] have questioned whether extreme poverty was a "natural" condition of humanity and decreased with the rise of [[capitalism]].<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Sullivan |first=Dylan |last2=Hickel |first2=Jason |date=2023-01-01 |title=Capitalism and extreme poverty: A global analysis of real wages, human height, and mortality since the long 16th century |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X22002169?__cf_chl_tk=QgoOcBdsoDyPMzSS0aTJ0y_9TCnmAyeos2hllp9DDO8-1730566745-1.0.1.1-cqtK2JEmFEF_ksvFs059tDm.Xu2jEPUOjqSj1LoPa40 |journal=World Development |volume=161 |pages=106026 |doi=10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106026 |issn=0305-750X}}</ref>

[[File:Brookings -- 2030 Extreme Poverty Projections.png|upright=1.4|thumb|Reduction in global poverty by year in percentage points]]

===Exacerbating factors===

There are a variety of factors that may reinforce or instigate the existence of extreme poverty, such as weak institutions, cycles of violence and a low level of growth. Recent World Bank research shows that some countries can get caught in a "fragility trap", in which self-reinforcing factors prevent the poorest nations from emerging from low-level equilibrium in the long run.<ref name="worldbank2">World Bank. [http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Feature%20Story/Stop_Conflict_Reduce_Fragility_End_Poverty.pdf "Stop Conflict, Reduce Fragility and End Poverty: Doing Things Differently in Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations"]. 2013.</ref> Moreover, most of the reduction in extreme poverty over the past twenty years has taken place in countries that have not experienced a civil conflict or have had governing institutions with a strong capacity to actually govern. Thus, to end extreme poverty, it is also important to focus on the interrelated problems of fragility and conflict.

USAID defines fragility as a government's lack of both legitimacy (the perception the government is adequate at doing its job) and effectiveness (how good the government is at maintaining law and order, in an equitable manner). As fragile nations are unable to equitably and effectively perform the functions of a state, these countries are much more prone to violent unrest and mass inequality. Additionally, in countries with high levels of inequality (a common problem in countries with inadequate governing institutions), much higher growth rates are needed to reduce the rate of poverty when compared with other nations. Additionally, if China and India are removed from the equation, up to 70% of the world's poor live in fragile states by some definitions of fragility. Some analysts project that extreme poverty will be increasingly concentrated in fragile, low-income states like Haiti, Yemen and the Central African Republic.<ref>Nancy Lindborg. [https://web.archive.org/web/20140303211914/http://blog.usaid.gov/2014/02/to-end-extreme-poverty-tackle-fragility/ "To End Extreme Poverty, Tackle Fragility"]. USAID. 13 February 2014.</ref> However, some academics, such as [[Andy Sumner]], say that extreme poverty will be increasingly concentrated in middle-income countries, creating a paradox where the world's poor do not actually live in the poorest countries.<ref>Andy Sumner. [http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/1426481_file_Sumner_where_in_the_world_FINAL_0.pdf "Where Will the World's Poor Live? An Update on Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion"]. Center for Global Development. September 2012.</ref>

To help low-income earners, fragile states make the transition towards peace and prosperity, the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States, endorsed by roughly forty countries and multilateral institutions, was created in 2011. This represents an important step towards redressing the problem of fragility as it was originally articulated by self-identified fragile states who called on the international community to not only "do things differently", but to also "do different things".<ref name="pnaec864">USAID. [https://web.archive.org/web/20140714115923/http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaec864.pdf "Ending Extreme Poverty in fragile contexts"]. 28 January 2014.</ref>

Civil conflict also remains a prime cause for the perpetuation of poverty throughout the developing world. Armed conflict can have severe effects on economic growth for many reasons such as the destruction of assets, destruction of livelihoods, creation of unwanted mass migration, and diversion of public resources towards war.<ref name="pnaec864"/> Significantly, a country that experienced major violence during 1981–2005 had extreme poverty rates 21 percentage points higher than a country with no violence. On average, each civil conflict will cost a country roughly 30 years of GDP growth.<ref name="worldbank2"/> Therefore, a renewed commitment from the international community to address the deteriorating situation in highly fragile states is necessary to both prevent the mass loss of life, but to also prevent the vicious cycle of extreme poverty.

Population trends and dynamics (e.g. population growth) can also have a large impact on prospects for poverty reduction. According to the United Nations, "in addition to improving general health and well-being, analysis shows that meeting the reproductive health and contraceptive needs of all women in the developing world more than pays for itself").<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.unfpa.org/resources/population-and-poverty|title=Population and poverty|website=[[United Nations Population Fund]]|language=en|access-date=8 February 2019}}</ref>

In 2013, a prominent finding in a report by the World Bank was that extreme poverty is most prevalent in low-income countries. In these countries, the World Bank found that progress in poverty reduction is the slowest, the poor live under the worst conditions, and the most affected persons are children age 12 and under.<ref>Olinto, Pedro, et al. [http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/The%20State%20of%20the%20Poor.pdf "The State of the Poor: Where Are The Poor, Where Is Extreme Poverty Harder to End, and What Is the Current Profile of the World's Poor?"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180619000140/http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/The%20State%20of%20the%20Poor.pdf |date=19 June 2018 }}. ''Economic Premise'' 125.2 (2013).</ref>