Editing Ethnic conflict (section)

== Study in the post-Cold War world ==
[[File:Armed conflict zones in Myanmar.png|thumb|upright|Map highlighting the current zones of [[Internal conflict in Myanmar|conflict in Myanmar]]]]

One of the most debated issues relating to ethnic conflict is whether it has become more or less prevalent in the post–Cold War period. Even
though a decline in the rate of new ethnic conflicts was evident in the late 1990s, ethnic conflict remains the most common form of
armed intrastate conflict today.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Mishali-Ram |first1=Meirav |title=Ethnic Diversity, Issues, and International Crisis Dynamics, 1918-2002 |journal=Journal of Peace Research |date=September 2006 |volume=43 |issue=5 |pages=583–600 |doi=10.1177/0022343306066524|s2cid=110835057 }}</ref> At the end of the Cold War, academics including [[Samuel P. Huntington]] and [[Robert D. Kaplan]] predicted a proliferation of conflicts fueled by [[Clash of Civilizations|civilisational clashes]], [[Tribalism|tribalism]], [[Natural resource|resource]] [[scarcity]] and [[Human overpopulation|overpopulation]].<ref>{{cite journal |first=Samuel P. |last=Huntington |year=1993 |url=http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19930601faessay5188/samuel-p-huntington/the-clash-of-civilizations.html |title=The clash of civilizations? |journal=[[Foreign Affairs]] |volume=72 |issue=3 |pages=22–49 |doi=10.2307/20045621 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070629022856/http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19930601faessay5188/samuel-p-huntington/the-clash-of-civilizations.html |archive-date=2007-06-29 |jstor=20045621 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|first=Robert D.|last=Kaplan|year=1994|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/ideastour/archive/kaplan.mhtml|title=The coming anarchy|journal=[[The Atlantic Monthly]]|volume=273|issue=2|pages=44–76|access-date=2017-03-06|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080724054203/http://www.theatlantic.com/ideastour/archive/kaplan.mhtml|archive-date=2008-07-24|url-status=dead}}</ref>

The violent [[Communal conflicts in Nigeria|ethnic conflicts in Nigeria]], [[March 2019 attacks against Fulani herders|Mali]], [[Sudanese nomadic conflicts|Sudan]] and other countries in the Sahel region have been exacerbated by droughts, food shortages, [[land degradation]], and population growth.<ref>{{cite news |title=Climate change, food shortages, and conflict in Mali |url=https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/04/climate-change-food-shortages-conflict-mali-150426105617725.html |work=Al-Jazeera |date=27 April 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=How Climate Change Is Spurring Land Conflict in Nigeria |url=https://time.com/5324712/climate-change-nigeria/ |magazine=Time |date=28 June 2018}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Farmer-Herder Conflicts on the Rise in Africa |url=https://reliefweb.int/report/world/farmer-herder-conflicts-rise-africa |publisher=ReliefWeb |date=6 August 2018}}</ref>

However, some theorists contend that this does not represent a rise in the incidence of ethnic conflict, because many of the [[proxy wars]] fought during the Cold War as ethnic conflicts were actually  hot spots of the Cold War. Research shows that the fall of [[Communism]] and the increase in the number of capitalist states were accompanied by a decline in total warfare, interstate wars, [[ethnic]] wars, [[revolutionary]] wars, and the number of [[refugees]] and [[displaced person]]s.<ref>{{cite journal |first1=Peter|last1=Wallensteen|first2=Margareta|last2=Sollenberg|year=1995|doi=10.1177/0022343395032003007|title=After the Cold War: Emerging patterns of armed conflict 1989–94|journal=Journal of Peace Research|volume=32|issue=3|pages=345–360|s2cid=110533926}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|first1=Lotta|last1=Harbom|first2=Peter|last2=Wallensteen|year=2005|url=http://info.uu.se/press.nsf/166B1EC86A3FAF93C125706D0037D2E3/$File/JPRarticle.pdf|title=Armed conflict and its international dimensions, 1946–2004|journal=Journal of Peace Research|volume=42|issue=5|pages=623–635|doi=10.1177/0022343305056238|s2cid=111270925|access-date=2007-02-18|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070616093316/http://info.uu.se/press.nsf/166B1EC86A3FAF93C125706D0037D2E3/$File/JPRarticle.pdf|archive-date=2007-06-16|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://members.aol.com/CSPmgm/conflict.htm|title=Measuring systemic peace|publisher=Center for Systemic Peace|date=30 October 2006|access-date=18 February 2007|archive-date=16 June 2006|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060616185933/http://members.aol.com/CSPmgm/conflict.htm|url-status=dead}}</ref> Indeed, some scholars have questioned whether the concept of ethnic conflict is useful at all.<ref>{{cite journal |first=Bruce|last=Gilley|year=2004|doi=10.1080/0143659042000256959|title=Against the concept of ethnic conflict|journal=Third World Quarterly|volume=25|issue=6|pages=1155–1166|s2cid=121147717}}</ref> Others have attempted to test the "clash of civilisations" thesis, finding it to be difficult to operationalise and that civilisational conflicts have not risen in intensity in relation to other ethnic conflicts since the end of the Cold War.<ref>{{cite journal |first=Jonathan|last=Fox|year=2002|doi=10.1017/S0007123402000170|title=Ethnic minorities and the Clash of Civilizations: A quantitative analysis of Huntington's thesis|journal=British Journal of Political Science|volume=32|issue=3|pages=415–434}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |first=Giacomo|last=Chiozza|s2cid=37203913|year=2002|jstor=1555255|title=Is there a Clash of Civilizations? Evidence from patterns of international conflict involvement, 1946–97|journal=Journal of Peace Research|volume=39|issue=6|pages=711–734|doi=10.1177/0022343302039006004}}</ref>

A key question facing scholars who attempt to adapt their theories of interstate violence to explain or predict large-scale ethnic violence is whether  ethnic groups could be considered "rational" actors.<ref name="Kalyvas">{{cite book 
|first=Stathis N.|last=Kalyvas|year=2006|title=The Logic of Violence in Civil War|location=New York|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=0521854091}}
</ref>
Prior to the end of the Cold War, the consensus among students of large-scale violence was that ethnic groups should be considered irrational actors, or semi-rational at best. If true, general explanations of ethnic violence would be impossible. In the years since, however, scholarly consensus has shifted to consider that ethnic groups may in fact be counted as rational actors, and the puzzle of their apparently irrational actions (for example, fighting over territory of little or no intrinsic worth) must therefore be explained in some other way.<ref name="Toft" /><ref name="Kalyvas" /> As a result, the possibility of a general explanation of ethnic violence has grown, and collaboration between comparativist and international-relations sub-fields has resulted in increasingly useful theories of ethnic conflict.