Editing Collatz conjecture (section)

===A probabilistic heuristic===
If one considers only the ''odd'' numbers in the sequence generated by the Collatz process, then each odd number is on average {{sfrac|3|4}} of the previous one.{{refn|{{named ref|name=Lagarias (1985)}} section "[http://www.cecm.sfu.ca/organics/papers/lagarias/paper/html/node3.html A heuristic argument"].}} (More precisely, the geometric mean of the ratios of outcomes is {{sfrac|3|4}}.) This yields a heuristic argument that every Hailstone sequence should decrease in the long run, although this is not evidence against other cycles, only against divergence. The argument is not a proof because it assumes that Hailstone sequences are assembled from uncorrelated probabilistic events. (It does rigorously establish that the [[p-adic numbers|2-adic]] extension of the Collatz process has two division steps for every multiplication step for [[almost all]] 2-adic starting values.)