Editing Resource depletion (section)

== Minerals depletion ==
{{Main|Peak minerals}}

[[Mineral|Minerals]] are needed to provide food, clothing, and housing. A [[United States Geological Survey]] (USGS) study found a significant long-term trend over the 20th century for non-renewable resources such as minerals to supply a greater proportion of the raw material inputs to the non-fuel, non-food sector of the economy; an example is the greater consumption of crushed stone, sand, and gravel used in construction.<ref>''Materials Flow and Sustainability'', US Geological Survey.Fact Sheet FS-068-98, June 1998.</ref>

Large-scale exploitation of minerals began in the Industrial Revolution around 1760 in [[England]] and has grown rapidly ever since. Technological improvements have allowed humans to dig deeper and access lower grades and different types of [[ore]] over that time.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=West|first1=J|title=Decreasing metal ore grades: are they really being driven by the depletion of high-grade deposits?|journal=J Ind Ecol|date=2011|volume=15|issue=2|pages=165–168|doi=10.1111/j.1530-9290.2011.00334.x|s2cid=153886675}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{cite journal|last1=Drielsma|first1=Johannes A|last2=Russell-Vaccari|first2=Andrea J|last3=Drnek|first3=Thomas|last4=Brady|first4=Tom|last5=Weihed|first5=Pär|last6=Mistry|first6=Mark|last7=Perez Simbor|first7=Laia|title=Mineral resources in life cycle impact assessment—defining the path forward|journal=Int J Life Cycle Assess|date=2016|volume=21|issue=1|pages=85–105|doi=10.1007/s11367-015-0991-7|doi-access=free|bibcode=2016IJLCA..21...85D }}</ref><ref name=":1">{{cite journal|last2=Robinson|first2=Gilpin R Jr|last3=Nassar|first3=Nedal T|date=2016|title=Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future|journal=Resources|volume=5|issue=14|pages=14|doi=10.3390/resources5010014|last1=Meinert|first1=Lawrence D|doi-access=free|bibcode=2016Resou...5...14M }}</ref> Virtually all basic industrial metals ([[copper]], [[iron]], [[bauxite]], etc.), as well as [[rare earth mineral]]s, face production output limitations from time to time,<ref>{{cite book
| last = Klare
| first = M. T. 
| title = The Race for What's Left
| url = https://archive.org/details/isbn_9780805091267
| url-access = registration
| publisher = Metropolitan Books
| year = 2012
| isbn = 9781250023971
}}</ref> because supply involves large up-front investments and is therefore slow to respond to rapid increases in demand.<ref name=":0" />

Minerals projected by some to enter production decline during the next 20 years:

* Oil conventional (2005)
* Oil all liquides (2017). Old expectation: [[Gasoline]] (2023)<ref>Valero & Valero(2010)による『Physical geonomics: Combining the exergy and Hubbert peak analysis for predicting mineral resources depletion』から</ref>
* Copper (2017). Old expectation: Copper (2024).<ref name="sciencedirect.com">{{cite journal| doi=10.1016/j.resconrec.2010.02.010 | volume=54 | issue=12 | title=Physical geonomics: Combining the exergy and Hubbert peak analysis for predicting mineral resources depletion | year=2010 | journal=Resources, Conservation and Recycling | pages=1074–1083 | last1 = Valero | first1 = Alicia | last2 = Valero | first2 = Antonio| bibcode=2010RCR....54.1074V }}</ref> Data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) suggest that it is very unlikely that copper production will peak before 2040.<ref name=":1" />
* Coal per KWh (2017). Old expectation per ton: (2060)<ref name="sciencedirect.com"/>
* [[Zinc]].<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/zinc.htm |title=Zinc Depletion |access-date=2014-07-21 |archive-date=2017-08-27 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170827162745/http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/zinc.htm |url-status=live }}</ref> Developments in [[hydrometallurgy]] have transformed non-sulfide zinc deposits (largely ignored until now) into large low cost reserves.<ref>{{Cite journal|title=Ore Deposits in an Evolving Earth|journal=Geological Society, London, Special Publications|volume=393|last1=Jenkin|first1=G. R. T.|last2=Lusty|first2=P. A. J.|last3=McDonald|first3=I|last4=Smith|first4=M. P.|last5=Boyce|first5=A. J.|last6=Wilkinson|first6=J. J.|year=2014|pages=265–276|doi=10.1144/SP393.13|s2cid=53488911|url=http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508092/1/265.full.pdf|access-date=2019-07-04|archive-date=2020-01-03|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200103103045/http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/508092/1/265.full.pdf|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Hitzman|first1=M. W.|last2=Reynolds|first2=N. A.|last3=Sangster|first3=D. F.|last4=Allen|first4=C. R.|last5=Carman|first5=C. F.|date=2003|title=Classification, genesis, and exploration guides for Nonsulfide Zinc deposits|journal=Economic Geology|volume=98|issue=4|pages=685–714|doi=10.2113/gsecongeo.98.4.685|bibcode=2003EcGeo..98..685H }}</ref>

Minerals projected by some to enter production decline during the present century:

* [[Aluminium]] (2057)<ref name="sciencedirect.com"/>
* Iron (2068)<ref name="sciencedirect.com"/>
Such projections may change, as new discoveries are made<ref name="sciencedirect.com" /> and typically misinterpret available data on Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves.<ref name=":0" /><ref name=":1" />
* [[Phosphor]] (2048). The last 80% of world reserves are only one mine.{{Cn|date=April 2024}}

=== Petroleum ===
{{excerpt|Oil depletion}}