Editing John Maynard Keynes (section)

===In the 1920s===

Keynes had completed his ''[[A Treatise on Probability]]'' before the war but published it in 1921.{{r|2003 Skidel|p=283}} The work was a notable contribution to the philosophical and mathematical underpinnings of [[probability theory]], championing the important view that ''probabilities'' were no more or less than [[truth value]]s intermediate between simple truth and falsity. Keynes developed the first upper-lower probabilistic [[interval (mathematics)|interval]] approach to probability in chapters 15 and 17 of this book, as well as having developed the first decision weight approach with his conventional coefficient of risk and weight, ''c'', in chapter 26. In addition to his academic work, the 1920s saw Keynes active as a journalist selling his work internationally and working in London as a financial consultant. In 1924 Keynes wrote an obituary for his former tutor [[Alfred Marshall]] which [[Joseph Schumpeter]] called "the most brilliant life of a man of science I have ever read".<ref>
{{cite book
|last=Schumpeter
|first=Joseph
|title= Ten Great Economists
|year=2003
|page= 271
|isbn=1-932512-09-8
|publisher=Simon Publications
}}
</ref> [[Mary Paley Marshall]] was "entranced" by the memorial, while [[Lytton Strachey]] rated it as one of Keynes's "best works".{{r|2003 Skidel|p=342}}

In 1922 Keynes continued to advocate reduction of German reparations with ''A Revision of the Treaty''.{{r|2003 Skidel|p=245}} He attacked the post-World War I deflation policies with ''[[A Tract on Monetary Reform]]'' in 1923{{r|2003 Skidel|p=329}}{{snd}}a trenchant argument that countries should target stability of domestic prices, avoiding deflation even at the cost of allowing their currency to depreciate. Britain suffered from high unemployment through most of the 1920s, leading Keynes to recommend the depreciation of [[Pound sterling|sterling]] to boost jobs by making British exports more affordable. From 1924 he was also advocating a fiscal response, where the government could create jobs by spending on public works.{{r|2003 Skidel|pp=343–344}} During the 1920s Keynes's pro-stimulus views had only limited effect on policymakers and mainstream academic opinion{{snd}}according to [[Hyman Minsky]] one reason was that at this time his theoretical justification was "muddled".<ref name="Minksky"/> The ''Tract'' had also called for an end to the gold standard. Keynes advised it was no longer a net benefit for countries such as Britain to participate in the [[gold standard]], as it ran counter to the need for domestic policy autonomy. It could force countries to pursue deflationary policies at exactly the time when expansionary measures were called for to address rising unemployment. The Treasury and Bank of England were still in favour of the gold standard and in 1925 they were able to convince the then Chancellor [[Winston Churchill]] to re-establish it, which had a depressing effect on British industry. Keynes responded by writing ''The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill'' and continued to argue against the gold standard until Britain finally abandoned it in 1931.{{r|2003 Skidel|pp=352–355}}