Editing By-election (section)

== Significance and consequences ==

=== Direct effects ===

By-elections can be crucial when the ruling party has only a small majority. In [[parliamentary system]]s, party discipline is often so strong that the governing party or coalition can only lose a [[vote of no confidence]] after losing enough supporters, whether by floor-crossing or through losing by-elections, for it to become a [[minority government]]. Examples are the [[Callaghan Ministry|Labour government of James Callaghan 1976–1979]] and [[Second Major ministry|Conservative government of John Major 1992–1997]]. In the [[United States Senate]], [[2010 United States Senate special election in Massachusetts|Scott Brown's election]] in 2010 ended the [[filibuster]]-proof [[supermajority]] formerly enjoyed by [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democrats]].

By-elections can also be important if a minority party needs to gain one or more seats in order to gain [[official party status]] or the [[balance of power (parliament)|balance of power]] in a minority or coalition situation. For example, [[Andrea Horwath]]'s win in an [[Ontario]] provincial by-election in 2004 allowed the [[Ontario New Democratic Party]] to regain official party status with important results in terms of parliamentary privileges and funding.

In Australia, a by-election in 1996 in the [[Queensland]] state electoral district of [[Electoral district of Mundingburra|Mundingburra]] overturned the results of the [[1995 Queensland state election|1995 state election]]. In that election, held in July 1995, Wayne Goss and his [[Queensland Labor Party|Labor Party]] had won by a slim 45-seat majority in a 89-seat parliament. The seat of Mundingburra had been awarded to the Labor Party on the basis of a majority of 16 votes. However, in December 1995 the Court of Disputed Returns threw out the result in Mundingburra after it was found that 22 overseas military personnel had been denied the chance to vote. Consequently, a by-election for Mundingburra was held in February 1996, in which the electorate was won by the opposition [[Liberal National Party of Queensland|Liberal Party]], pushing the Goss government into minority. A vote of no confidence in the government was then passed by the opposition, with the support of Independent [[Liz Cunningham]]. Following the no confidence vote,  [[Rob Borbidge]] the leader of the [[Queensland National Party|Nationals]] the senior partner in the coalition became premier until his government's defeat in the [[1998 Queensland state election|1998 state election]].

=== Predictive value ===
Non-experts often interpret by-election results as a [[bellwether]] or early indicator of the results of the next general election, but political scientists generally caution against overinterpretation. The evidence suggests that while the margin of victory relative to the district's normal performance may be relevant, other indicators generally provide stronger evidence with a larger sample size.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Nate Silver |date=September 13, 2011 |title=A Guide to Cutting Through Special-Election Spin |url=http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/13/a-guide-to-cutting-through-special-election-spin/ |website=FiveThirtyEight}}</ref>

A 2016 study of special elections to the [[United States House of Representatives]] found "that while candidate characteristics affect special election outcomes, presidential approval is predictive of special election outcomes as well. Furthermore, we find that the effect of presidential approval on special election outcomes has increased in magnitude from 1995 to 2014, with the 2002 midterm representing an important juncture in the nationalization of special elections."<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Knotts |first1=H. Gibbs |last2=Ragusa |first2=Jordan M. |date=2016-01-02 |title=The Nationalization of Special Elections for the U.S. House of Representatives |journal=Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties |volume=26 |issue=1 |pages=22–39 |doi=10.1080/17457289.2015.1063497 |s2cid=216142342 |issn=1745-7289}}</ref>

Seats which have unexpectedly changed hands in by-elections often revert to the former party in the next general election. One reason for this is that [[voter turnout]] at by-elections tends to be lower and skewed toward highly motivated supporters of the opposition party.

=== Indirect impact ===
[[File:MaryEllenSmith1918SunsetMag.tif|thumb|200px|[[Mary Ellen Smith]] became the first woman in the [[Legislative Assembly of British Columbia]] in a 1918 by-election, the first election in which women of the province could vote.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.leg.bc.ca/dyl/Pages/1917-Women-Win-the-Right-to-Vote.aspx |title=1917 – Women Win the Right to Vote |website=Legislative Assembly of British Columbia}}</ref>]]
By-election upsets can have a psychological impact by creating a sense of momentum for one party or a sense of impending defeat for a government. For example, in Canada, [[Deborah Grey]]'s [[1989 Beaver River federal by-election|1989 by-election victory]] in [[Beaver River (federal electoral district)|Beaver River]] was seen as evidence that the newly formed [[Reform Party of Canada]] would be a serious political contender and that it posed a serious political threat for the ruling [[Progressive Conservative Party of Canada|Progressive Conservatives]]. Similarly, the upset 1960 by-election victory of [[Walter Pitman]] in [[Peterborough (electoral district)|Peterborough]] as a "[[New Party (Canada)|New Party]]" candidate was a significant boost for the movement to replace the [[Co-operative Commonwealth Federation]] with an unnamed "New Party" which would be integrated with the labour movement. Pitman's candidacy in a riding in which the CCF was traditionally weak was seen as a test of this concept, and his upset victory convinced the CCF and the labour movement to launch the [[New Democratic Party]] (NDP). [[Gilles Duceppe]]'s 1990 upset landslide by-election victory in [[Laurier—Sainte-Marie]] with 66% of the vote on behalf of the newly formed [[Bloc Québécois]] was the first electoral test for what was initially a loose parliamentary formation created two months earlier after several Quebec MPs defected from the Progressive Conservative and Liberal parties to protest the failure of the [[Meech Lake Accord]] and provided the first indication that the party could be a serious force in the province of Quebec. On the strength of the by-election victory, the BQ went on to be officially formed as a party in 1991 and win 54 seats in the 1993 federal election, enough to form the Official Opposition.

By-elections may occur singly or in small bunches, especially if the authority responsible for calling them has discretion over the timing and can procrastinate. They are sometimes bunched to save money, as holding multiple by-elections is likely to cost more than holding a by-election to fill the vacancies all at once. In Canada, in 1978, [[By-elections to the 30th Canadian Parliament|15 by-elections were held on a single date]], restoring the House of Commons to 264 members. The media called it a "mini-election", a test of the Liberal government's popularity with a general election due in less than a year. In Hong Kong, in January 2010, five members of the Legislative Council from the [[Pro-democracy camp]], one from each of Hong Kong's five geographical constituencies, resigned and stood in simultaneous by-elections, at which the entire electorate would participate, in an attempt to stage a [[Five Constituencies Referendum|de facto referendum]] on democratizing the Hong Kong political system. The effect of the manoeuvre was blunted when the [[Pro-Beijing camp]] refused to stand candidates against them.

=== Upsets ===

==== Australia ====

The [[1918 Swan by-election]] was held following the death of [[John Forrest]]. The seat was traditionally a safe seat for the [[Nationalist Party (Australia)|Nationalist Party]] against the [[Australian Labor Party|Labor Party]], but the emergence of the [[National Party of Australia|Country Party]] lead to a "[[Spoiler effect|three-cornered contest]]". As Australia used a [[first-past-the-post]] system at the time, the conservative vote was split between the Country and Nationalists, allowing Labor candidate [[Edwin Corboy]] to come in first place and win the seat. The Swan by-election is cited as the reason for the introduction of [[Instant-runoff voting|preferential voting]], to prevent Labor from benefiting from a divided opposition in the future.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Green |first=Antony |author-link=Antony Green |year=2004 |title=History of Preferential Voting in Australia |url=http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2004/guide/prefhistory.htm |access-date=2020-06-15 |website=Antony Green Election Guide: Federal Election 2004 |publisher=Australian Broadcasting Corporation}}</ref>

The [[2018 Wentworth by-election]] was held after the resignation of former prime minister [[Malcolm Turnbull]], who had served as the member for [[Division of Wentworth|Wentworth]] since 2004. Wentworth was considered an exceptionally safe seat for the [[Liberal Party of Australia|Liberal Party]], as it had only ever been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessor parties since its creation in 1901. Former Ambassador to Israel [[Dave Sharma]] was preselected as the Liberal Party's candidate for the by-election. The major challenger in the by-election was independent candidate [[Kerryn Phelps]]. A huge 17.7% [[two-party-preferred]] swing was required for the Liberal Party to lose the seat. Ultimately, the Liberals suffered a 19.0% swing to Phelps, the largest by-election swing in Australian history, which won her the seat. This loss deprived the Liberal Party of its majority in federal Parliament, forcing them into a [[minority government]].

==== Canada ====
In 1942, the Conservatives' [[Arthur Meighen]] (who had already served as Prime Minister during the 1920s) sought to re-enter the [[House of Commons of Canada]] through a by-election in [[York South]]. His surprise defeat at the hand of [[Joseph W. Noseworthy]] of the [[Co-operative Commonwealth Federation]] ended his political career, and may also have been a factor in the Conservative Party's decision to move to the left and rebrand itself the Progressive Conservative Party under Meighen's replacement. Noseworthy's victory was also a significant breakthrough for the CCF giving it credibility as a national party where it has previously been seen as a Western Canadian regional protest party.

On November 1, 1944, General [[Andrew McNaughton]] was appointed to Cabinet as [[Minister of National Defence (Canada)|Minister of Defence]] without having a seat in parliament, after his predecessor resigned during the [[Conscription Crisis of 1944]]. A by-election was arranged in [[Grey North]] which the opposition [[Progressive Conservative Party of Canada|Progressive Conservative party]] contested. The major campaign issue became the government's policy of "limited conscription" during World War II, which McNaughton supported, and which the Conservatives rejected. They called, instead, for "full conscription". McNaughton was defeated in the February 1945 by-election. As a result, with confidence in his government undermined, Prime Minister [[William Lyon Mackenzie King]] called the [[1945 Canadian federal election|1945 federal election]] several weeks later; originally he had intended to postpone the election until the war was clearly won. McNaughton sought a seat in the 1945 contest but was again defeated, and resigned shortly after.

The most recent example of a cabinet minister appointed from outside parliament having to resign after losing a by-election was in 1975, when Minister of Communications [[Pierre Juneau]] was appointed to [[Pierre Trudeau]]'s Liberal cabinet directly from the private sector, and tried to enter parliament through a by-election in [[Hochelaga (electoral district)|Hochelaga]]. Juneau unexpectedly lost to the Progressive Conservative candidate and resigned from cabinet 10 days after his by-election defeat.

In [[Ontario]], [[John Tory]], leader of the [[Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario]] ran in a 2009 by-election in [[Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock (provincial electoral district)|Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock]], after he convinced one of his caucus members to step down, in hopes of re-entering the [[Ontario legislature]]. His by-election defeat resulted in his resignation as party leader.

==== Hong Kong ====

In the [[March 2018 Hong Kong by-elections]], the [[pro-democracy camp]] lost their majority status for the first time in the [[Geographical constituency]] part of the [[Legislative Council of Hong Kong]] By-elections were held after six pro-democracy lawmakers were disqualified by the [[High Court of Hong Kong]] during the [[oath-taking controversy]]. The pro-democracy camp was considered safe in the de facto [[first past the post]] by-election because both pro-democracy camp and [[pro-Beijing camp]] would only nominate one candidate to fill in the by-election. However, the pro-democracy camp lost twice in [[Kowloon West (1998 constituency)|Kowloon West]], which had been considered a safe seat for them.

==== Singapore ====
{{main|By-elections in Singapore}}

Under Article 49(1) of the [[Constitution of Singapore]],<ref>{{cite web | url=https://sso.agc.gov.sg/Act/CONS1963?ProvIds=pr49-#pr49- | title=Constitution of the Republic of Singapore – Singapore Statutes Online }}</ref> a by-election should be called for any vacancy arising from a constituency—particularly [[Single Member Constituency]]<ref>{{cite web | url=https://sso.agc.gov.sg/Act/PEA1954?ProvIds=pr24-#pr24- | title=Parliamentary Elections Act 1954 – Singapore Statutes Online }}</ref>—within a reasonable time period.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.elitigation.sg/gd/s/2013_SGCA_39 | title=&#91;2013&#93; Sgca 39 }}</ref> Since the introduction of partial self-governance in 1955, 34 by-elections have been held, and some have been major upsets:
* In the [[1957 Cairnhill by-election]], the then-ruling [[Labour Front]] government saw its vote collapse to 19.23% from 47.58% in the [[1955 Singaporean general election|previous general election]].
* Each by-election in 1961 was important for the survival of the ruling party's small majority.
** After being dismissed as the [[Ministry of National Development (Singapore)|Minister for National Development]], [[Ong Eng Guan]] resigned his seat. Standing in the [[1961 Singaporean by-elections|1961 by-election in Hong Lim]] as an independent, he polled 73.31% of the vote, the largest loss of votes for an incumbent party in a by-election.
** The [[1961 Singaporean by-elections|1961 by-election in Anson]] saw a comeback by the opposition leader, the [[Workers' Party (Singapore)|Workers' Party]] Chairperson and former [[Chief Minister of Singapore|Chief Minister]], [[David Marshall (Singaporean politician)|David Marshall]].
* In the [[1981 Anson by-election]], the Workers' Party Secretary-General [[J. B. Jeyaretnam]] broke the ruling PAP's monopoly in Parliament, marking the first opposition presence since 1966 and the re-entry of the Workers' Party into Singapore's legislature since 1961.
* The [[2013 Punggol East by-election]] was the first time the [[People's Action Party]] lost a seat in a by-election since 1981 and the last time the ruling party failed to retain a constituency in a by-election.

==== Ireland ====

A [[2014 Dublin South-West by-election|by-election]] held in [[Dublin South-West]] during 2014 provided a very surprising upset. The [[Sinn Féin]] candidate, Cathal King, was the favourite to take the seat. Sinn Féin had done extremely well in the area during [[2014 Irish local elections|that year's local elections]]. Sinn Féin captured high percentages of the first preference vote across the constituency. However, the [[Anti-Austerity Alliance]] candidate, [[Paul Murphy (Irish politician)|Paul Murphy]], was elected on the eighth count. Although Murphy had received a lower first preference total than Cathal King, he outperformed the Sinn Féin candidate in attracting transfers. Murphy then took his seat in the [[31st Dáil]]. As a direct result of this defeat in the by-election, Sinn Féin hardened their stance against [[Irish Water]] and called for the complete abolition of water charges in Ireland.

==== United Kingdom ====
In 1965, the [[British Foreign Secretary]] [[Patrick Gordon Walker]] stood in the [[1965 Leyton by-election|Leyton by-election]] for election to the [[UK Parliament]], having been defeated in controversial circumstances in [[Smethwick in the 1964 general election|Smethwick]] at the previous year's [[1964 United Kingdom general election|general election]]. His appointment as a senior minister while not a member of either house of Parliament was against convention, and he therefore sought to regularise the position by standing in the first available by-election, which was at [[Leyton]] in January 1965. However a strong swing against Labour resulted in Gordon Walker's defeat: as a result, he resigned as Foreign Secretary.

==== United States ====

In 2010, [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]] [[Scott Brown (politician)|Scott Brown]] defeated [[Martha Coakley]] in the [[2010 United States Senate special election in Massachusetts|Massachusetts special election to the United States Senate]]. Coakley, a [[Democratic Party (United States)|Democrat]], had been widely expected to win, but Brown unexpectedly closed the gap and won, a shocking result in the heavily-Democratic state of Massachusetts. This eliminated the Democratic Party's [[Filibuster in the United States Senate|filibuster-proof]] majority of 60 votes. Another upset occurred in the [[2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama|2017 special election in Alabama]], one of the most heavily Republican states in the nation. Democrat [[Doug Jones (politician)|Doug Jones]] defeated Republican [[Roy Moore]] in a close race after Moore was [[Roy Moore sexual misconduct allegations|accused of sexual assault by multiple women]].