Editing Fusion power (section)

== Economics ==
The EU spent almost {{nowrap|€10 billion}} through the 1990s.<ref>{{cite web|author=Fusion For Energy|title=Fusion For Energy – Bringing the power of the sun to earth|url=http://www.f4e.europa.eu|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191129201922/https://f4e.europa.eu/|archive-date=November 29, 2019|access-date=July 17, 2020|website=f4e.europa.eu}}</ref> [[ITER]] represents an investment of over twenty billion dollars, and possibly tens of billions more, including [[In kind|in kind contributions]].<ref>{{Cite journal|date=2016|title=ITER governing council pushes schedule back five years and trims budget|journal=Physics Today|issue=6 |page=8171 |doi=10.1063/pt.5.029905|bibcode=2016PhT..2016f8171. |issn=1945-0699}}</ref><ref>{{Cite journal|year=2018|title=ITER disputes DOE's cost estimate of fusion project|journal=Physics Today|doi=10.1063/PT.6.2.20180416a |last1=Kramer |first1=David |issue=4 |page=4990 |bibcode=2018PhT..2018d4990K }}</ref> Under the European Union's [[Framework Programmes for Research and Technological Development|Sixth Framework Programme]], nuclear fusion research received {{nowrap|€750 million}} (in addition to ITER funding), compared with {{nowrap|€810 million}} for sustainable energy research,<ref>{{cite web |title=The Sixth Framework Programme in brief |publisher=ec.europa.eu |url= http://ec.europa.eu/research/fp6/pdf/fp6-in-brief_en.pdf |access-date=October 30, 2014}}</ref> putting research into fusion power well ahead of that of any single rival technology. The [[United States Department of Energy]] has allocated $US367M–$US671M every year since 2010, peaking in 2020,<ref>{{cite web |last1=Margraf |first1=Rachel |title=A Brief History of U.S. Funding of Fusion Energy |url=http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2021/ph241/margraf1/ |access-date=July 21, 2021}}</ref> with plans to reduce investment to $US425M in its FY2021 Budget Request.<ref>DOE/CF-0167 – Department of Energy FY 2021 Congressional Budget Request, Budget in Brief, February 2020. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2020/02/f72/doe-fy2021-budget-in-brief_0.pdf {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210718212001/https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2020/02/f72/doe-fy2021-budget-in-brief_0.pdf |date=July 18, 2021 }}</ref> About a quarter of this budget is directed to support ITER.

The size of the investments and time lines meant that fusion research was traditionally almost exclusively publicly funded. However, starting in the 2010s, the promise of commercializing a paradigm-changing [[low-carbon energy]] source began to attract a raft of companies and investors.<ref>{{Cite book|editor=Nuttall, William J. |title=Commercialising fusion energy : how small businesses are transforming big science|date=2020|publisher=Institute of Physics |isbn=978-0750327176|oclc=1230513895}}</ref> Over two dozen start-up companies attracted over one billion dollars from roughly 2000 to 2020, mainly from 2015, and a further three billion in funding and milestone related commitments in 2021,<ref>{{Cite book|last=Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee|url=https://usfusionandplasmas.org/wp-content/themes/FESAC/FESAC_Report_2020_Powering_the_Future.pdf|title=Powering the Future: Fusion & Plasmas|publisher=Department of Energy Fusion Energy Sciences|year=2021|location=Washington|pages=ii|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Helman|first=Christopher|title=Fueled By Billionaire Dollars, Nuclear Fusion Enters A New Age|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2022/01/02/fueled-by-billionaire-dollars-nuclear-fusion-enters-a-new-age/|access-date=January 14, 2022|website=Forbes|language=en}}</ref> with investors including [[Jeff Bezos]], [[Peter Thiel]] and [[Bill Gates]], as well as institutional investors including [[Legal & General]], and energy companies including [[Equinor]], [[Eni]], [[Chevron Corporation|Chevron]],<ref name="Space Race">{{Cite web|last=Windridge|first=Melanie|title=The New Space Race Is Fusion Energy|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniewindridge/2020/10/07/the-new-space-race-is-fusion-energy/|access-date=October 10, 2020|website=Forbes|language=en}}</ref> and the Chinese [[ENN Group]].<ref>{{Citation |last1=Pearson |first1=Richard J. |title=Review of approaches to fusion energy |date=2020 |url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/978-0-7503-2719-0ch2 |work=Commercialising Fusion Energy |access-date=December 13, 2021 |publisher=IOP Publishing |doi=10.1088/978-0-7503-2719-0ch2 |isbn=978-0750327190 |s2cid=234561187 |last2=Takeda |first2=Shutaro}}</ref><ref>{{Citation |last1=Pearson |first1=Richard J. |title=Pioneers of commercial fusion |date=2020 |url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/978-0-7503-2719-0ch7 |work=Commercialising Fusion Energy |access-date=December 13, 2021 |publisher=IOP Publishing |doi=10.1088/978-0-7503-2719-0ch7 |isbn=978-0750327190 |s2cid=234528929 |last2=Nuttall |first2=William J.}}</ref><ref name="Diffusion" /> In 2021, Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) obtained $1.8 billion in scale-up funding, and Helion Energy obtained a half-billion dollars with an additional $1.7 billion contingent on meeting milestones.<ref name="Sets Sights">{{Cite web |title=White House Sets Sights on Commercial Fusion Energy |url=https://www.aip.org/fyi/2022/white-house-sets-sights-commercial-fusion-energy |access-date=May 3, 2022 |website=www.aip.org |date=April 25, 2022 |language=en}}</ref>

Scenarios developed in the 2000s and early 2010s discussed the effects of the commercialization of fusion power on the future of human civilization.<ref name="Giant Step">{{cite web |last1=Lee |first1=Sing |last2=Saw |first2=Sor Heoh |title=Nuclear Fusion Energy – Mankind's Giant Step Forward |url=http://www.plasmafocus.net/IPFS/2010%20Papers/LSmankind.pdf |access-date=October 30, 2014 |publisher=HPlasmafocus.net}}</ref> Using nuclear fission as a guide, these saw ITER and later [[DEMOnstration Power Station|DEMO]] as bringing online the first commercial reactors around 2050 and a rapid expansion after mid-century.<ref name="Giant Step" /> Some scenarios emphasized "fusion nuclear science facilities" as a step beyond ITER.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Kessel|first1=C. E.|last2=Blanchard|first2=J. P.|last3=Davis|first3=A.|last4=El-Guebaly|first4=L.|last5=Ghoniem|first5=N.|last6=Humrickhouse|first6=P. W.|last7=Malang|first7=S.|last8=Merrill|first8=B. J.|last9=Morley|first9=N. B.|last10=Neilson|first10=G. H.|last11=Rensink|first11=M. E.|date=September 1, 2015|title=The Fusion Nuclear Science Facility, the Critical Step in the Pathway to Fusion Energy|url=https://doi.org/10.13182/FST14-953|journal=Fusion Science and Technology|volume=68|issue=2|pages=225–236|doi=10.13182/FST14-953|bibcode=2015FuST...68..225K |osti=1811772|s2cid=117842168|issn=1536-1055}}</ref><ref name="pilot plants">{{Cite journal |last1=Menard |first1=J. E. |last2=Brown |first2=T. |last3=El-Guebaly |first3=L. |last4=Boyer |first4=M. |last5=Canik |first5=J. |last6=Colling |first6=B. |last7=Raman |first7=R. |last8=Wang |first8=Z. |last9=Zhai |first9=Y. |last10=Buxton |first10=P. |last11=Covele |first11=B. |date=October 1, 2016 |title=Fusion nuclear science facilities and pilot plants based on the spherical tokamak |url=https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0029-5515/56/10/106023 |journal=Nuclear Fusion |volume=56 |issue=10 |pages=106023 |bibcode=2016NucFu..56j6023M |doi=10.1088/0029-5515/56/10/106023 |osti=1335165 |issn=0029-5515 |s2cid=125184562}}</ref> However, the economic obstacles to tokamak-based fusion power remain immense, requiring investment to fund prototype tokamak reactors<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Cardozo|first=N. J. Lopes|date=February 4, 2019|title=Economic aspects of the deployment of fusion energy: the valley of death and the innovation cycle|journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |volume=377|issue=2141|pages=20170444|doi=10.1098/rsta.2017.0444|pmid=30967058|bibcode=2019RSPTA.37770444C|s2cid=106411210|issn=1364-503X|doi-access=free}}</ref> and development of new supply chains,<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Surrey|first=E.|date=February 4, 2019|title=Engineering challenges for accelerated fusion demonstrators|journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences|volume=377|issue=2141|pages=20170442|doi=10.1098/rsta.2017.0442|pmid=30967054|pmc=6365852|bibcode=2019RSPTA.37770442S|issn=1364-503X|doi-access=free}}</ref> a problem which will affect any kind of fusion reactor.<ref>{{Cite book |url=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rXrzFQ83DL2q68UB3BjU2jdFVSRHxxBF/view |title=The Fusion Industry Supply Chain: Opportunities and Challenges |publisher=Fusion Industry Association |year=2023 |location=Washington, DC}}</ref> Tokamak designs appear to be labour-intensive,<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Banacloche|first1=Santacruz|last2=Gamarra|first2=Ana R.|last3=Lechon|first3=Yolanda|last4=Bustreo|first4=Chiara|date=October 15, 2020|title=Socioeconomic and environmental impacts of bringing the sun to earth: A sustainability analysis of a fusion power plant deployment |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544220315681|journal=Energy|language=en|volume=209|pages=118460|doi=10.1016/j.energy.2020.118460|bibcode=2020Ene...20918460B |s2cid=224952718|issn=0360-5442}}</ref> while the commercialization risk of alternatives like inertial fusion energy is high due to the lack of government resources.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Koepke|first=M. E.|date=January 25, 2021|title=Factors influencing the commercialization of inertial fusion energy|url= |journal=Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences|language=en|volume=379|issue=2189|pages=20200020|doi=10.1098/rsta.2020.0020|issn=1364-503X|pmc=7741007|pmid=33280558|bibcode=2021RSPTA.37900020K}}</ref>

Scenarios since 2010 note computing and material science advances enabling multi-phase national or cost-sharing "Fusion Pilot Plants" (FPPs) along various technology pathways,<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Menard |first1=J. E. |last2=Bromberg |first2=L. |last3=Brown |first3=T. |last4=Burgess |first4=T. |last5=Dix |first5=D. |last6=El-Guebaly |first6=L. |last7=Gerrity |first7=T. |last8=Goldston |first8=R. J. |last9=Hawryluk |first9=R. J. |last10=Kastner |first10=R. |last11=Kessel |first11=C. |date=October 1, 2011 |title=Prospects for pilot plants based on the tokamak, spherical tokamak and stellarator |url=https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0029-5515/51/10/103014 |journal=Nuclear Fusion |volume=51 |issue=10 |pages=103014 |bibcode=2011NucFu..51j3014M |doi=10.1088/0029-5515/51/10/103014 |issn=0029-5515 |s2cid=55781189}}</ref><ref name="pilot plants" /><ref name="Tokamak">{{Cite journal|last1=Hiwatari|first1=Ryoji|last2=Goto |first2=Takuya|date=March 19, 2019|title=Assessment on Tokamak Fusion Power Plant to Contribute to Global Climate Stabilization in the Framework of Paris Agreement|journal=Plasma and Fusion Research |volume=14|pages=1305047|bibcode=2019PFR....1405047H|doi=10.1585/pfr.14.1305047|issn=1880-6821|doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|last=((National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (U.S.). Committee on a Strategic Plan for U.S. Burning Plasma Research))|title=Final report of the Committee on a Strategic Plan for U.S. Burning Plasma Research|isbn=978-0309487443|location=Washington, DC|oclc=1104084761}}</ref><ref>{{Cite book|url=https://drive.google.com/file/d/1w0TKL_Jn0tKUBgUc8RC1s5fIOViH5pRK/view|title=A Community Plan for Fusion Energy and Discovery Plasma Sciences|publisher=American Physical Society Division of Plasma Physics Community Planning Process|year=2020|location=Washington, DC}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|date=April 7, 2020|title=US Plasma Science Strategic Planning Reaches Pivotal Phase|url=https://www.aip.org/fyi/2020/us-plasma-science-strategic-planning-reaches-pivotal-phase|access-date=October 8, 2020|website=www.aip.org|language=en}}</ref> such as the UK [[Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production]], within the 2030–2040 time frame.<ref>{{Cite news|last1=Asmundssom|first1=Jon|last2=Wade|first2=Will|title=Nuclear Fusion Could Rescue the Planet from Climate Catastrophe|work=Bloomberg|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-28/startups-take-aim-at-nuclear-fusion-energy-s-biggest-challenge|access-date=September 21, 2020}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|last=Michaels|first=Daniel|date=February 6, 2020|title=Fusion Startups Step In to Realize Decades-Old Clean Power Dream|language=en-US|work=[[The Wall Street Journal]]|url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/fusion-startups-step-in-to-realize-decades-old-clean-power-dream-11581001383|access-date=October 8, 2020|issn=0099-9660}}</ref><ref name="Early Markets">{{Cite journal|last1=Handley|first1=Malcolm C.|last2=Slesinski|first2=Daniel|last3=Hsu|first3=Scott C.|date=July 10, 2021|title=Potential Early Markets for Fusion Energy|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10894-021-00306-4|journal=Journal of Fusion Energy|volume=40|issue=2|page=18|doi=10.1007/s10894-021-00306-4|issn=0164-0313|arxiv=2101.09150|bibcode=2021JFuE...40...18H |s2cid=231693147}}</ref> Notably, in June 2021, General Fusion announced it would accept the UK government's offer to host the world's first substantial [[Public–private partnership|public-private partnership]] fusion demonstration plant, at [[Culham Centre for Fusion Energy]].<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Ball|first=Philip|date=November 17, 2021|title=The chase for fusion energy|journal=Nature|language=en|volume=599|issue=7885|pages=352–366|doi=10.1038/d41586-021-03401-w|pmid=34789909|s2cid=244346561|doi-access=free}}</ref> The plant will be constructed from 2022 to 2025 and is intended to lead the way for commercial pilot plants in the late 2025s. The plant will be 70% of full scale and is expected to attain a stable plasma of 150 million degrees.<ref>{{Cite web|date=June 16, 2021|title=A Historic Decision: To Demonstrate Practical Fusion at Culham|url=https://generalfusion.com/2021/06/a-historic-decision-to-demonstrate-practical-fusion-at-culham/|access-date=June 18, 2021|website=General Fusion|language=en-US}}</ref> In the United States, cost-sharing public-private partnership FPPs appear likely,<ref>{{Cite web|last=Holland|first=Andrew| author-link = Andrew Holland| date=July 15, 2021|title=Congress Would Fund Fusion Cost-Share Program in Committee-Passed Appropriations Bill|url=https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/post/house-energy-water-subcommittee-includes-cost-share-program-in-their-passed-appropriation-bill|access-date=July 16, 2021|website=Fusion Industry Assn|language=en|archive-date=April 20, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230420002948/https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/post/house-energy-water-subcommittee-includes-cost-share-program-in-their-passed-appropriation-bill|url-status=dead}}</ref> and in 2022 the DOE announced a new Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program as the centerpiece of its Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy,<ref>{{Cite web |last=Sailer |first=Sandy |date=May 31, 2023 |title=Department of Energy Announces Milestone Public-Private Partnership Awards |url=https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/department-of-energy-announces-milestone-public-private-partnership-awards/ |access-date=June 1, 2023 |website=Fusion Industry Association |language=en-US}}</ref> which envisages private sector-led teams delivering FPP pre-conceptual designs, defining technology roadmaps, and pursuing the R&D necessary to resolve critical-path scientific and technical issues towards an FPP design.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Hsu |first=Scott C. |date=May 5, 2023 |title=U.S. Fusion Energy Development via Public-Private Partnerships |journal=Journal of Fusion Energy |volume=42 |issue=1 |page=12 |doi=10.1007/s10894-023-00357-9 |s2cid=258489130 |issn=0164-0313|doi-access=free |bibcode=2023JFuE...42...12H }}</ref> Compact reactor technology based on such demonstration plants may enable commercialization via a fleet approach from the 2030s<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Spangher|first1=Lucas|last2=Vitter|first2=J. Scott|last3=Umstattd|first3=Ryan|date=2019|title=Characterizing fusion market entry via an agent-based power plant fleet model|journal=Energy Strategy Reviews|volume=26|pages=100404|doi=10.1016/j.esr.2019.100404|issn=2211-467X|doi-access=free|bibcode=2019EneSR..2600404S }}</ref> if early markets can be located.<ref name="Early Markets" />

The widespread adoption of non-nuclear renewable energy has transformed the energy landscape. Such renewables are projected to supply 74% of global energy by 2050.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Global Energy Perspectives 2019|url=https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/oil%20and%20gas/our%20insights/global%20energy%20perspective%202019/mckinsey-energy-insights-global-energy-perspective-2019_reference-case-summary.ashx|website=Energy Insights- Mckinsey}}</ref> The steady fall of renewable energy prices challenges the economic competitiveness of fusion power.<ref name="Energy Mix">{{Cite journal|last1=Nicholas|first1=T. E. G.|last2=Davis|first2=T. P.|last3=Federici|first3=F.|last4=Leland|first4=J. E.|last5=Patel|first5=B. S.|last6=Vincent|first6=C.|last7=Ward|first7=S. H.|date=February 2021|title=Re-examining the Role of Nuclear Fusion in a Renewables-Based Energy Mix|journal=Energy Policy|volume=149|pages=112043|arxiv=2101.05727|doi=10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112043|bibcode=2021EnPol.14912043N |s2cid=230570595}}</ref>

[[File:20201019 Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE, Lazard) - renewable energy.svg|thumb|upright=1.5|Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for various sources of energy including wind, solar and nuclear energy<ref name=LazardLCOE_2024>{{cite web |title=Lazard LCOE Levelized Cost Of Energy+ |url=https://www.lazard.com/media/xemfey0k/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2024-_vf.pdf |publisher=Lazard |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240828224744/https://www.lazard.com/media/xemfey0k/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2024-_vf.pdf |archive-date=August 28, 2024 |page=16 |date=June 2024 |url-status=live}}</ref>]]

Some economists suggest fusion power is unlikely to match other [[renewable energy]] costs.<ref name="Energy Mix" /> Fusion plants are expected to face large start up and [[capital cost]]s. Moreover, operation and maintenance are likely to be costly.<ref name="Energy Mix" /> While the costs of the [[China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor]] are not well known, an EU DEMO fusion concept was projected to feature a [[levelized cost of energy]] (LCOE) of $121/MWh.<ref>{{Cite journal|date=June 1, 2018|title=Approximation of the economy of fusion energy|journal=Energy|language=en|volume=152|pages=489–497|doi=10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.130|issn=0360-5442|doi-access=free|last1=Entler|first1=Slavomir|last2=Horacek|first2=Jan|last3=Dlouhy|first3=Tomas|last4=Dostal|first4=Vaclav|bibcode=2018Ene...152..489E }}</ref>

Fuel costs are low, but economists suggest that the energy cost for a one-gigawatt plant would increase by $16.5 per MWh for every $1 billion increase in the capital investment in construction. There is also the risk that easily obtained lithium will be used up making batteries. Obtaining it from seawater would be very costly and might require more energy than the energy that would be generated.<ref name="Energy Mix" />

In contrast, [[Renewable energy|renewable]] levelized cost of energy estimates are substantially lower. For instance, the 2019 levelized cost of energy of [[solar energy]] was estimated to be $40-$46/MWh, [[Onshore wind farm|on shore wind]] was estimated at $29-$56/MWh, and [[Offshore wind power|offshore wind]] was approximately $92/MWh.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Levelized Cost of Energy and Levelized Cost of Storage 2019|url=http://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2019/|access-date=June 1, 2021|website=Lazard.com|language=en|archive-date=February 19, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230219103421/http://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2019/|url-status=dead}}</ref>

However, fusion power may still have a role filling energy gaps left by renewables,<ref name="Early Markets" /><ref name="Energy Mix" /> depending on how administration priorities for energy and environmental justice influence the market.<ref name="Sets Sights" /> In the 2020s, socioeconomic studies of fusion that began to consider these factors emerged,<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Griffiths |first1=Thomas |last2=Pearson |first2=Richard |last3=Bluck |first3=Michael |last4=Takeda |first4=Shutaro |date=October 1, 2022 |title=The commercialisation of fusion for the energy market: a review of socio-economic studies |journal=Progress in Energy |volume=4 |issue=4 |pages=042008 |doi=10.1088/2516-1083/ac84bf |bibcode=2022PrEne...4d2008G |s2cid=251145811 |issn=2516-1083|doi-access=free }}</ref> and in 2022 EUROFusion launched its Socio-Economic Studies and Prospective Research and Development strands to investigate how such factors might affect commercialization pathways and timetables.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Kembleton |first1=R. |last2=Bustreo |first2=C. |date=2022 |title=Prospective research and development for fusion commercialisation |journal=Fusion Engineering and Design |volume=178 |pages=113069 |doi=10.1016/j.fusengdes.2022.113069 |s2cid=247338079 |issn=0920-3796|doi-access=free |bibcode=2022FusED.17813069K }}</ref> Similarly, in April 2023 Japan announced a national strategy to industrialise fusion.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Otake |first=Tomoko |date=April 14, 2023 |title=Japan adopts national strategy on nuclear fusion as competition intensifies |url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/04/14/national/japan-national-strategy-nuclear-fusion/ |access-date=April 19, 2023 |website=The Japan Times |language=en-US}}</ref> Thus, fusion power may work in tandem with other renewable energy sources rather than becoming the primary energy source.<ref name="Energy Mix" /> In some applications, fusion power could provide the base load, especially if including integrated thermal storage and cogeneration and considering the potential for retrofitting coal plants.<ref name="Early Markets" /><ref name="Energy Mix" />