Editing Petroleum (section)

== Future production ==
{{Update section|date=February 2021}}
[[File:World oil production.webp|thumb|World oil production by average barrels per day between 2011 and 2022]]
[[Consumption function|Consumption]] in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries has been abundantly pushed by automobile sector growth. The [[1980s oil glut|1985–2003 oil glut]] even fueled the sales of low fuel economy vehicles in [[OECD]] countries. The 2008 economic crisis seems to have had some impact on the sales of such vehicles; still, in 2008 oil consumption showed a small increase.

In 2016 Goldman Sachs predicted lower demand for oil due to emerging economies concerns, especially China.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Hume |first=Neil |date=March 8, 2016 |title=Goldman Sachs says commodity rally is unlikely to last |work=Financial Times |url=https://www.ft.com/content/e178653e-e517-11e5-bc31-138df2ae9ee6 |url-status=live |access-date=March 8, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180429093259/https://www.ft.com/content/e178653e-e517-11e5-bc31-138df2ae9ee6 |archive-date=April 29, 2018 |issn=0307-1766}}</ref> The [[BRICS]] (Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) countries might also kick in, as China briefly had the largest automobile market in December 2009.<ref>{{Cite news |last=Chris Hogg |date=February 10, 2009 |title=China's car industry overtakes US |work=BBC News |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7879372.stm |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111019234900/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7879372.stm |archive-date=October 19, 2011}}</ref> In the long term, uncertainties linger; the [[OPEC]] believes that the OECD countries will push low consumption policies at some point in the future; when that happens, it will definitely curb oil sales, and both OPEC and the [[Energy Information Administration]] (EIA) kept lowering their 2020 consumption estimates during the past five years.<ref>{{Cite web |last=OPEC Secretariat |year=2008 |title=World Oil Outlook 2008 |url=http://www.opec.org/library/World%20Oil%20Outlook/pdf/WOO2008.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090407091227/http://www.opec.org/library/World%20Oil%20Outlook/pdf/WOO2008.pdf |archive-date=April 7, 2009}}</ref> A detailed review of [[International Energy Agency]] oil projections have revealed that revisions of world oil production, price and investments have been motivated by a combination of demand and supply factors.<ref name="Wachtmeister2018">{{Cite journal |last1=Wachtmeister |first1=Henrik |last2=Henke |first2=Petter |last3=Höök |first3=Mikael |date=2018 |title=Oil projections in retrospect: Revisions, accuracy and current uncertainty |journal=Applied Energy |volume=220 |pages=138–153 |doi=10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.013 |doi-access=free|bibcode=2018ApEn..220..138W }}</ref> All together, Non-OPEC conventional projections have been fairly stable the last 15 years, while downward revisions were mainly allocated to OPEC. Upward revisions are primarily a result of US [[tight oil]].

Production will also face an increasingly complex situation; while OPEC countries still have large reserves at low production prices, newly found reservoirs often lead to higher prices; offshore giants such as [[Tupi oil field|Tupi]], Guara and [[Tiber oilfield|Tiber]] demand high investments and ever-increasing technological abilities. Subsalt reservoirs such as Tupi were unknown in the twentieth century, mainly because the industry was unable to probe them. [[Enhanced Oil Recovery]] (EOR) techniques (example: [[Daqing Field|DaQing]], China<ref>{{Cite web |last=Ni Weiling |date=October 16, 2006 |title=Daqing Oilfield rejuvenated by virtue of technology |url=http://en.ce.cn/Insight/200610/16/t20061016_8980162.shtml |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111212081616/http://en.ce.cn/Insight/200610/16/t20061016_8980162.shtml |archive-date=December 12, 2011 |website=[[Economic Daily]]}}</ref>) will continue to play a major role in increasing the world's recoverable oil.

The expected availability of petroleum resources has always been around 35 years or even less since the start of the modern exploration. The [[oil constant]], an insider pun in the German industry, refers to that effect.<ref>Samuel Schubert, Peter Slominski UTB, 2010: Die Energiepolitik der EU Johannes Pollak, 235 Seiten, p. 20</ref>

A growing number of divestment campaigns from major funds pushed by newer generations who question the sustainability of petroleum may hinder the financing of future oil prospection and production.<ref>{{Cite web |date=January 27, 2021 |title=Rating agency S&P warns 13 oil and gas companies they risk downgrades as renewables pick up steam |url=http://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/27/rating-agency-sp-warns-13-oil-and-gas-companies-they-risk-downgrades-as-renewables-pick-up-steam |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210127175822/https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jan/27/rating-agency-sp-warns-13-oil-and-gas-companies-they-risk-downgrades-as-renewables-pick-up-steam |archive-date=January 27, 2021 |access-date=January 27, 2021 |website=The Guardian |language=en}}</ref>

=== Peak oil ===
{{Main|Peak oil}}
[[Peak oil]] is a term applied to the projection that future petroleum production, whether for individual oil wells, entire oil fields, whole countries, or worldwide production, will eventually peak and then decline at a similar rate to the rate of increase before the peak as these reserves are exhausted.{{Citation needed|date=May 2022}}<ref>{{cite book |last=Islam |first=M. R. |chapter=New Methods of Petroleum Sludge Disposal and Utilization |date=1995 |title=Asphaltenes |pages=219–235 |location=Boston |publisher=Springer US |doi=10.1007/978-1-4757-9293-5_8 |isbn=978-1-4757-9295-9}}</ref> The peak of oil discoveries was in 1965, and oil production per year has surpassed oil discoveries every year since 1980.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Campbell CJ |date=December 2000 |title=Peak Oil Presentation at the Technical University of Clausthal |url=http://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070705152332/http://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.html |archive-date=July 5, 2007}}</ref>

It is difficult to predict the oil peak in any given region, due to the lack of knowledge and/or transparency in the accounting of global oil reserves.<ref>{{Cite web |date=March 31, 2004 |title=New study raises doubts about Saudi oil reserves |url=http://www.iags.org/n0331043.htm |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100529211546/http://www.iags.org/n0331043.htm |archive-date=May 29, 2010 |access-date=August 29, 2010 |publisher=Iags.org}}</ref> Based on available production data, proponents have previously predicted the peak for the world to be in the years 1989, 1995, or 1995–2000. Some of these predictions date from before the recession of the early 1980s, and the consequent lowering in global consumption, the effect of which was to delay the date of any peak by several years. Just as the 1971 U.S. peak in oil production was only clearly recognized after the fact, a peak in world production will be difficult to discern until production clearly drops off.<ref>[http://www.oildecline.com/ Peak Oil Info and Strategies] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120617184210/http://www.oildecline.com/ |date=June 17, 2012 }} "The only uncertainty about peak oil is the time scale, which is difficult to predict accurately."</ref>

In 2020, according to [[BP#Climate policy|BP's Energy Outlook 2020]], peak oil had been reached, due to the changing energy landscape coupled with the [[Financial market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic#Oil prices|economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic]].

While there has been much focus historically on peak oil supply, the focus is increasingly shifting to peak demand as more countries seek to transition to renewable energy. The GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses assesses how the geopolitical position of 156 countries may change if the world fully transitions to renewable energy resources. Former oil exporters are expected to lose power, while the positions of former oil importers and countries rich in renewable energy resources is expected to strengthen.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Overland|first1=Indra|last2=Bazilian|first2=Morgan|last3=Ilimbek Uulu|first3=Talgat|last4=Vakulchuk|first4=Roman|last5=Westphal|first5=Kirsten|date=2019|title=The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition|journal=Energy Strategy Reviews|language=en|volume=26|page=100406|doi=10.1016/j.esr.2019.100406|doi-access=free|bibcode=2019EneSR..2600406O |hdl=11250/2634876|hdl-access=free}}</ref>

=== Unconventional oil ===
{{Update section|date=May 2022}}

[[Unconventional oil]] is petroleum produced or extracted using techniques other than the conventional methods. The calculus for peak oil has changed with the introduction of [[Unconventional (oil & gas) reservoir|unconventional]] production methods. In particular, the combination of [[horizontal drilling]] and [[hydraulic fracturing]] has resulted in a significant increase in production from previously uneconomic plays.<ref>{{Citation | date = May 28, 2015 | title = U.S. Crude Oil Production Forecast – Analysis of Crude Types | publisher = U.S. Energy Information Administration | place = Washington, DC | url = http://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/pdf/crudetypes.pdf | access-date = September 13, 2018 | quote = U.S. oil production has grown rapidly in recent years. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, which reflect combined production of crude oil and lease condensate, show a rise from 5.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2011 to 7.5 million bbl/d in 2013, and a record 1.2 million bbl/d increase to 8.7 million bbl/d in 2014. Increasing production of light crude oil in low-permeability or tight resource formations in regions like the Bakken, Permian Basin, and Eagle Ford (often referred to as light tight oil) account for nearly all the net growth in U.S. crude oil production.<br />EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, issued in May 2015, reflects continued production growth in 2015 and 2016, albeit at a slower pace than in 2013 and 2014, with U.S. crude oil production in 2016 forecast to reach 9.2 million bbl/d. Beyond 2016, the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) projects further production growth, although its pace and duration remains highly uncertain. | archive-date = November 22, 2019 | archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20191122192224/https://www.eia.gov/analysis/petroleum/crudetypes/pdf/crudetypes.pdf | url-status = live }}</ref> Certain rock [[strata]] contain hydrocarbons but have low permeability and are not thick from a vertical perspective. Conventional vertical wells would be unable to economically retrieve these hydrocarbons. Horizontal drilling, extending horizontally through the strata, permits the well to access a much greater volume of the strata. Hydraulic fracturing creates greater permeability and increases hydrocarbon flow to the wellbore.