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===Conservation status=== {{external media | width = 210px | float = right | headerimage= [[File:Mojave Desert 2020 Dome Fire aftermath.jpg |210px]] | video1 = [https://knowablemagazine.org/article/living-world/2022/can-fire-ravaged-forest-joshua-trees-be-restored "Can a fire-ravaged forest of Joshua trees be restored?"], Tien Nguyen, ''[[Knowable Magazine]]'', March 4, 2022.}} Joshua trees are one of the species predicted to have their range reduced and shifted by [[climate change]].<ref name="ShafBartThom01">{{Cite journal |last1=Shafer |first1=Sarah L. |last2=Bartlein |first2=Patrick J. |last3=Thompson |first3=Robert S. |year=2001 |title=Potential changes in the distributions of western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios |journal=Ecosystems |volume=4 |issue=3 |pages=200โ215 |name-list-style=amp |doi=10.1007/s10021-001-0004-5|bibcode=2001Ecosy...4..200S |citeseerx=10.1.1.569.228 |s2cid=6214861 }}</ref> Concern remains that they will be eliminated from Joshua Tree National Park, with ecological research suggesting a high probability that their populations will be reduced by 90% of their current range by the end of the 21st century,<ref name="Cole2011">{{cite journal |last1=Cole |first1=Kenneth L. |last2=Ironside |first2=Kirsten |last3=Eischeid |first3=Jon |last4=Garfin |first4=Gregg |last5=Duffy |first5=Phillip B. |last6=Toney |first6=Chris |year=2011 |title=Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction |url=http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2011_cole_k001.pdf |url-status=unfit |journal=Ecological Applications |volume=21 |issue=1 |pages=137โ149 |doi=10.1890/09-1800.1 |pmid=21516893 |bibcode=2011EcoAp..21..137C |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111025113005/http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2011_cole_k001.pdf |archive-date=2011-10-25 |access-date=2023-07-30}}</ref><ref name="NPR">{{cite web |last=Shogren |first=Elizabeth |date=2008-02-04 |title=Outlook Bleak for Joshua Trees |url=https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=17628032 |access-date=2012-03-30 |website=[[NPR|National Public Radio]]}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/10/joshua-tree-extinct-mojave-desert-climate-change|title='It makes me angry': is this the end for America's Joshua trees?|last=Singh|first=Maanvi|date=2019-08-10|work=The Guardian|access-date=2019-08-10|language=en-GB|issn=0261-3077}}</ref><ref name=":0">{{Cite news|last=Ufberg|first=Max|date=January 20, 2022|title='Like witnessing a birth in a morgue': the volunteers working to save the Joshua trees|work=The Guardian|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/20/joshua-trees-climate-crisis-wildfires|access-date=January 20, 2022}}</ref> thus fundamentally transforming the ecosystem of the park. Wildfires, invasive grasses, and poor migration patterns for the trees' seeds are all additional factors in the species' imperilment.<ref name=":0"/> As an example, approximately 13%โor more than 1.3 million Joshua treesโin one of the densest Joshua tree populations in the world in [[Mojave National Preserve]] were killed in the [[Dome Fire (2020)|Dome Fire]] in August 2020.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Olalde |first=Mark |date=2020-08-18 |orig-date=2020-08-17 |title=Dome Fire torches 43,000 acres in Mojave National Preserve, many Joshua trees burned |url=https://www.desertsun.com/story/news/2020/08/17/dome-fire-burns-in-mojave-national-park-as-temps-soar/3383180001/ |access-date=2023-07-30 |website=[[The Desert Sun]]}}</ref> Also, concern exists about the ability of the species to migrate to favorable climates due to the extinction of the giant [[Nothrotheriops|Shasta ground sloth]] (''Nothrotheriops shastensis'') 13,000 years ago; ground sloth dung has been found to contain Joshua tree leaves, fruits, and seeds, suggesting that the sloths might have been key to the trees' dispersal. However, ground squirrels are very effective at moving the seeds long distances.<ref name="Cole2011" /><ref name="NPR" /> In March 2022, California Department of Fish and Wildlife conducted a status review of the Western Joshua Tree to determine whether to list the species as threatened under the California Endangered Species Act (CESA).<ref name="California Department of Fish and Wildlife">{{cite web |last=Bonham |first=Charlton H. |title=Report to the Fish and Game Commission Status Review of Western Joshua Tree (Yucca brevifolia) |year=2022 |publisher=California Department of Fish and Wildlife |url=https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/public_lands/pdfs/Western_Joshua_Tree_Status_Review_2022-04-13.pdf |website=Center for Biological Diversity}}</ref> The study showed that the largest threat to ''Yucca brevifolia'' was wildfires, that wildfires were a threat to population density of prone areas but not to the limits of the range itself, that several population studies showed ''Yucca brevifolia'' was abundant, and that although the southern region of the species' range has been reduced, the trend is that the northern region has been expanding over the last 11,700 years as the North American ice cap melted, allowing the species to occupy its current range. The studies showing reduced population after fires used aerial photography to document populations, which would underreport smaller and thus younger trees, as was noted in the review. The review concluded: <blockquote>Based on the criteria described above, the best scientific information available to the Department at this time indicates that western Joshua tree is not in danger of becoming extinct throughout all, or a significant portion, of its range due to one or more causes, including loss of habitat, change in habitat, overexploitation, predation, competition, or disease, and is not likely to become an endangered species in the foreseeable future in the absence of special protection and management efforts required by CESA.</blockquote> In February 2023, [[California]] Governor [[Gavin Newsom]]'s administration proposed a budget trailer bill, the Western Joshua Tree Conservation Act, to focus on protecting the climate-threatened species and permitting development in the Southern California [[desert]]. The legislation requires [[conservation movement|conservation]] plan for this and other species that may be threatened by climate change and would authorize the [[California Department of Fish and Wildlife]] to permit taking a western Joshua tree only under certain conditions.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Sahagun |first1=Louis |date=9 February 2023 |title=Newsom Administration offers legislation to protect western Joshua tree |url=https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-02-09/newsom-offers-joshua-tree-legislation |url-access=subscription |access-date=11 February 2023 |website=Los Angeles Times}}</ref> The legislation requires a fee of up to $2500 for the removal, relocation or trimming of limbs of a Western Joshua tree, including dead trees and limbs.<ref name="A.B. 1008: The Western Joshua Tree Conservation Act">{{cite web |title=The Western Joshua Tree Conservation Act |url=https://trackbill.com/bill/california-assembly-bill-1008-the-western-joshua-tree-conservation-act/2369699 |website=TrackBill |date=29 June 2023 |access-date=29 June 2023}}</ref> This bill was passed by California lawmakers in June 2023<ref>{{cite web |last1=Singh |first1=Maanvi |title=Joshua Trees win long term protection in environmental victory |url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/28/california-protect-joshua-trees-conservation |website=The Guardian |date=28 June 2023 |access-date=29 June 2023}}</ref> and went into effect on July 10, 2023.<ref>{{cite web |title=Western Joshua Tree Conservation |url=https://wildlife.ca.gov/Conservation/Environmental-Review/WJT | website=California Department of Fish and Wildlife |access-date=5 Jan 2024}}</ref>
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