Editing Patent (section)

=== Innovation decline ===

The number of patent applications filed each year has been growing for most countries although not smoothly, and jumps in activity are often observed due to changes in local laws. The high number of [[patent families]] for Spain in the 1800s is related to the superior preservation and cataloguing of the data by [[Spanish Patent and Trademark Office]] compared to other countries (see [[1836 U.S. Patent Office fire]]). The US was the World's leader in terms of patent families filed between 1900 and 1966, when Japan took over. Since 2007 [[PR China]] leads.

[[File:Number of patent families published by different authorities vs. earliest priority date.png|thumb|Number of patent families published by different authorities vs. earliest priority date]]

However, in most technologically advanced countries (see, for example, France,<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.juve-patent.com/legal-commentary/the-end-of-quick-and-dirty-french-patent-system-under-scrutiny/|title=The end of quick and dirty? French patent system under scrutiny|first=Christina|last=Schulze|date=15 March 2019|website=JUVE Patent|accessdate=9 June 2023|archive-date=8 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230608144130/https://www.juve-patent.com/legal-commentary/the-end-of-quick-and-dirty-french-patent-system-under-scrutiny/|url-status=live}}</ref> Italy, Japan,<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0352.html|title=Column「Soaring Patent Applications in China」|website=www.rieti.go.jp|accessdate=9 June 2023|archive-date=7 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607021339/https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0352.html|url-status=live}}</ref> Spain, Sweden, the UK<ref>The changing profile of users of the UK patent system. Supporting the innovation ecosystem: Building the evidence base on the drivers of IP. 2021. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009464/The-changing-profile-of-users-of-the-UK-patent-system.pdf {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607021336/https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009464/The-changing-profile-of-users-of-the-UK-patent-system.pdf |date=2023-06-07 }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/facts-and-figures-patent-trade-mark-design-and-hearing-data-2019/facts-and-figures-patent-trade-mark-design-and-hearing-data-2019|title=Facts and figures: patent, trade mark, design and hearing data: 2019|website=GOV.UK|access-date=9 June 2023|archive-date=7 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607153516/https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/facts-and-figures-patent-trade-mark-design-and-hearing-data-2019/facts-and-figures-patent-trade-mark-design-and-hearing-data-2019|url-status=live}}</ref> in the figure on the right, as well as in [[Poland]]<ref>Trends and characteristics of patenting activity in Poland in 1990–2018. 2020. Przegląd Statystyczny. 67/3. J. Kwiatkowski, T. Tomaszewski. {{doi|10.5604/01.3001.0014.7108}}</ref>), the total (i.e. regardless of the priority/inventors' country) number of patent families filed there have been declining in absolute numbers since {{circa|1970s}}–1980s. The decline is even more pronounced when the number of patent applications is normalized by the country's population each year, or when the country of origin rather than country of filing is used.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.globaldata.com/media/disruptor/global-patent-filings-decline-by-14-yoy-in-q2-2022-mainly-led-by-china-reveals-globaldata/|title=Global patent filings decline by 14% YoY in Q2 2022, mainly led by China, reveals GlobalData|work=GlobalData |date=4 August 2022|accessdate=9 June 2023|archive-date=6 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230606170911/https://www.globaldata.com/media/disruptor/global-patent-filings-decline-by-14-yoy-in-q2-2022-mainly-led-by-china-reveals-globaldata/|url-status=live}}</ref> For the US, the population-normalized peak in patenting occurred in 1915,<ref name="Technol Forecast Soc Chang 2005">A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation. 2005. Technol Forecast Soc Chang. 72/8, 980–986. J. Huebner. {{doi|10.1016/j.techfore.2005.01.003}}.</ref> and the number of subsequent patents induced per patent has been mostly declining since 1926.<ref>Combinations of technology in US patents, 1926–2009: a weakening base for future innovation? 2018. Econ Innov New Technol. 27/8, 770–785. M.S. Clancy. {{doi|10.1080/10438599.2017.1410007}}.</ref> A study of 4,512  patents obtained by [[Stanford University]] between 1970 and 2020 showed that the university's patenting activity plateaued in the 2010s.<ref>Systematic analysis of 50 years of Stanford University technology transfer and commercialization. 2022. Patterns. 3/9, 9. W.X. Liang, S. Elrod, D.A. Mcfarland, J. Zou. {{doi|10.1016/j.patter.2022.100584}}.</ref> Incidentally, only 20% of Stanford patents in that dataset produced a positive net income for the university, while the rest was a net loss.

Similar declines have been noted not only for the number of patents, but also for other measures of innovation output.<ref>Gold ER. The fall of the innovation empire and its possible rise through open science. Research Policy. Jun 2021;50(5):13. 104226. {{doi|10.1016/j.respol.2021.104226}}</ref><ref name="Technol Forecast Soc Chang 2005"/>

Several hypotheses have been proposed as explanations for the observed decline:

# increasing cost of doing research, as "lower-hanging fruits have been picked up";<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.ft.com/content/564ed694-c832-37e2-910d-d2a26a461693|title=It's not about the low hanging fruit, it's about the ideas|first=Izabella|last=Kaminska|newspaper=Financial Times|date=13 September 2017|access-date=9 June 2023|archive-date=6 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230606131453/https://www.ft.com/content/564ed694-c832-37e2-910d-d2a26a461693|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://sciencebusiness.net/news/75591/The-rising-cost-of-research|title=The rising cost of research|website=Science&#124;Business|accessdate=9 June 2023|archive-date=7 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607100405/https://sciencebusiness.net/news/75591/The-rising-cost-of-research|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="ReferenceA">Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? 2020. Am Econ Rev. 110/4, 1104–1144. N. Bloom, C.I. Jones, J. Van Reenen, M. Webb. {{doi|10.1257/aer.20180338}}.</ref>
# decrease in productivity per researcher;<ref>Bloom, Nicholas, Jones, Charles I., Van Reenen, John, Webb, Michael, 2020. Are Ideas getting harder to find? Am. Econ. Rev. 110 (4), 1104–1144</ref><ref>Are 'Flow of Ideas' and 'Research Productivity' in secular decline? 2022. Technol Forecast Soc Chang. 174/16. P. Cauwels, D. Sornette. {{doi|10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121267}}.</ref><ref name="ReferenceA"/> This occurred because factor (1) (higher hanging fruits) overwhelms increased efficiency in computation, automation, big data analysis and communication.
# human civilization is reaching the limits of the human brain rather than technological limits. "For the first time in history people are bombarded with far more information than they can process."<ref>A possible declining trend for worldwide innovation. 2005. Technol Forecast Soc Chang. 72/8, 980–986. J. Huebner. {{doi|10.1016/j.techfore.2005.01.003}}</ref>
# It has also been suggested<ref>How does technology and population progress relate? An empirical study of the last 10,000 years. 2016. Technol Forecast Soc Chang. 103/57–70. J.L. Dong, W. Li, Y.H. Cao, J.W. Fang. {{doi|10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.011}}</ref> that the rate of innovation is proportional to the rate of population growth (rather than to the total population), and that the observed decline in research productivity is related to the resource-limited [[Malthusian growth model]].
# increasing fragmentation of patent encumbrance<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ipwatchdog.com/2018/09/13/patent-encumbrances-reduce-market-value/id=101187/|title=Patent Encumbrances Can Reduce Market Value up to 100 Percent|date=13 September 2018|access-date=9 June 2023|archive-date=6 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230606131454/https://ipwatchdog.com/2018/09/13/patent-encumbrances-reduce-market-value/id=101187/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="mckinsey.com">{{Cite web|url=https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/every-company-is-a-software-company-six-must-dos-to-succeed|title=Every company is a software company: Six 'must dos' to succeed &#124; McKinsey|website=www.mckinsey.com|accessdate=9 June 2023|archive-date=7 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607222017/https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/every-company-is-a-software-company-six-must-dos-to-succeed|url-status=live}}</ref> and increasing number and cost of patent litigations;<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.worldipreview.com/news/patent-lawsuits-and-damages-on-the-rise-in-us-21137|title=Patent lawsuits and damages on the rise in US|first=Newton|last=Media|website=World IP Review|accessdate=9 June 2023|archive-date=6 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230606131455/https://www.worldipreview.com/news/patent-lawsuits-and-damages-on-the-rise-in-us-21137|url-status=live}}</ref>
# decreasing value of patents in post-industrial economies, as businesses prefer less risky and more profitable investments in software rather than in hardware,<ref>Venture Capital and Cleantech: The wrong model for energy innovation. 2017. Energy Policy. 102/385–395. B.E. Gaddy, V. Sivaram, T.B. Jones, L. Wayman. {{doi|10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.035}}</ref><ref name="mckinsey.com"/> which can be protected more effectively and at a lower cost by using [[copyrights]], [[trade secrets]], [[first mover advantage]], [[download limitations]] (see [[digital economy]]).<ref>Industrial R&D and national innovation policy: an institutional reappraisal of the US national innovation system. 2022. Ind Corp Change. 31/5, 1152–1176. I.A. Shaikh, K. Randhawa. {{doi|10.1093/icc/dtac019}}.</ref> A related decline of manufacturing share in the [[GDP]] of [[post-industrial]] countries has been reported in some studies.<ref>IP Canada Report. 2016. https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/canadian-intellectual-property-office/sites/default/files/attachments/2022/IP_Canada_Report_2016_en.pdf {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607012342/https://ised-isde.canada.ca/site/canadian-intellectual-property-office/sites/default/files/attachments/2022/IP_Canada_Report_2016_en.pdf |date=2023-06-07 }}</ref>
# a slow-down in patent applications in the US has been attributed to court decisions in [[Mayo Collaborative Services v. Prometheus Laboratories, Inc.]](2012), [[Association for Molecular Pathology v. Myriad Genetics, Inc.]] (2013) and  [[Alice Corp. v. CLS Bank International]] (2014) limiting the eligibility of [[business method]] and biological patents.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://ipwatchdog.com/2022/02/09/its-not-just-covid-understanding-the-drop-in-u-s-patent-application-filings/id=145491/|title=It's Not Just COVID: Understanding the Drop in U.S. Patent Application Filings|date=9 February 2022|access-date=9 June 2023|archive-date=7 June 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607010835/https://ipwatchdog.com/2022/02/09/its-not-just-covid-understanding-the-drop-in-u-s-patent-application-filings/id=145491/|url-status=live}}</ref> Similar restrictions on software patents have been enacted in other countries.<ref>Patenting software-related inventions in Europe. 2019. Research Handbook on Patent Law and Theory, 2nd Edition. 106–131. S. Schohe, C. Appelt, H. Goddar. {{doi|10.4337/9781785364129.00014}}.</ref>
# the number of patent applications from PR China is expected to go down after 2025, when government subsidies for patent filing are  to expire.<ref>https://www.law360.com/articles/1358644 {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607011310/https://www.law360.com/articles/1358644 |date=2023-06-07 }} ; https://www.managingip.com/article/2a7cr03ux3sqhecb3m7sw/data-china-firms-patent-filings-fall-after-gov-cancels-subsidies {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230607023155/https://www.managingip.com/article/2a7cr03ux3sqhecb3m7sw/data-china-firms-patent-filings-fall-after-gov-cancels-subsidies |date=2023-06-07 }}</ref>
# patents that are registered but not commercialized, as is the case in around 50% of them, function as a barrier to the registration of similar ideas, effectively creating a growing zone of non-patentability.<ref>Sariel, Aviram, Daniel Mishori, and Joseph Agassi. "The re-inventor's dilemma: a tragedy of the public domain." Journal of Intellectual Property Law & Practice 10.10 (2015): 759-766.</ref>