Editing Aircraft pilot (section)

===Airline===
There were 290,000 [[airline]] pilots in the world in 2017 and aircraft simulator manufacturer [[CAE Inc.]] forecasts a need for 255,000 new ones for a population of 440,000 by 2027, 150,000 for growth and 105,000 to offset retirement and attrition: 90,000 in Asia-Pacific (average pilot age in 2016: 45.8 years), 85,000 in Americas (48 years), 50,000 in Europe (43.7 years) and 30,000 in Middle East & Africa (45.7 years).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cae.com/uploadedFiles/Content/BusinessUnit/Civil_Aviation/CAE-Airline-Pilot-Demand-Outlook-Spread.pdf|title=Airline Pilot Demand Outlook|at=10-year view|date=June 2017|publisher=CAE Inc.|access-date=June 21, 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170712235720/http://www.cae.com/uploadedFiles/Content/BusinessUnit/Civil_Aviation/CAE-Airline-Pilot-Demand-Outlook-Spread.pdf|archive-date=July 12, 2017|url-status=dead}}</ref>

[[Boeing]] expects 790,000 new pilots in 20 years from 2018, 635,000 for [[commercial aviation]], 96,000 for [[business aviation]] and 59,000 for [[helicopter]]s: {{#expr:261/7.9round0}}% in Asia Pacific (261,000), {{#expr:206/7.9round0}}% in North America (206,000), {{#expr:146/7.9round0}}% in Europe (146,000), {{#expr:64/7.9round0}}% in the Middle East (64,000), {{#expr:57/7.9round0}}% in Latin America (57,000), {{#expr:29/7.9round0}}% in Africa (29,000) and {{#expr:27/7.9round0}}% in Russia/ Central Asia (27,000).<ref>{{cite web |title= Pilot Outlook: 2018 - 2037 |date= July 23, 2018 |publisher= Boeing |url= http://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook/2018-pilot-outlook/}}</ref> By November 2017, due a shortage of qualified pilots, some pilots were leaving [[corporate aviation]] to return to airlines.<!--<ref name=AIN21nonv2017/>--> In one example a [[Global 6000]] pilot, making $250,000 a year for 10 to 15 flight hours a month, returned to [[American Airlines]] with full [[Seniority list|seniority]].<!--<ref name=AIN21nonv2017/>--> A [[Gulfstream G650]] or Global 6000 pilot might earn between $245,000 and $265,000, and recruiting one may require up to $300,000.<!--<ref name=AIN21nonv2017/>--> At the other end of the spectrum, constrained by the available pilots, some small carriers hire new pilots who need 300 hours to jump to airlines in a year.<!--<ref name=AIN21nonv2017/>--> They may also recruit non-career pilots who have other jobs or airline retirees who want to continue to fly.<ref name=AIN21nonv2017>{{cite news|url=https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2017-11-21/bizav-leaders-seeing-shortages-qualified-pilot-pool|title=Bizav Leaders Seeing Shortages in Qualified Pilot Pool|work=AIN|author=Kerry Lynch|date=November 21, 2017|access-date=8 March 2018}}</ref>

====Automation====
The number of airline pilots could decrease as automation replaces copilots and eventually pilots as well. In January 2017 Rhett Ross, CEO of [[Continental Motors, Inc.|Continental Motors]] said "my concern is that in the next two decades—if not sooner—automated and autonomous flight will have developed sufficiently to put downward pressure on both wages and the number and kind of flying jobs available. So if a kid asks the question now and he or she is 18, 20 years from now will be 2037 and our would-be careerist will be 38—not even mid-career. Who among us thinks aviation and especially for-hire flying will look like it does now?" Christian Dries, owner of [[Diamond Aircraft]] Austria said "Behind the curtain, aircraft manufacturers are working on a single-pilot cockpit where the airplane can be controlled from the ground and only in case of malfunction does the pilot of the plane interfere. Basically the flight will be autonomous and I expect this to happen in the next five to six years for freighters."<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.avweb.com/blogs/insider/Will-a-Robot-Steal-Your-Pilot-Job-228279-1.html|title = Will A Robot Steal Your Pilot Job?|access-date=31 July 2017|work=AVweb|date=1 January 2017}}</ref>

In August 2017 financial company [[UBS]] predicted pilotless [[airliner]]s are technically feasible and could appear around 2025, offering around $35bn of savings, mainly in pilot costs: $26bn for [[airline]]s, $3bn for [[business jet]]s and $2.1bn for civil [[helicopters]]; $3bn/year from lower pilot training and [[aviation insurance]] costs due to safer flights; $1bn from flight optimisation (1% of global airlines' $133bn [[jet fuel]] bill in 2016); not counting revenue opportunity from increased [[capacity utilization]].<!--<ref name=UBS7Aug2017/>-->

Regulations have to adapt with [[air cargo]] likely at the forefront, but pilotless flights could be limited by [[consumer behaviour]]: 54% of 8,000 people [[Survey (human research)|survey]]ed are defiant while 17% are supportive, with acceptation progressively forecast.<ref name=UBS7Aug2017>{{citation|url=https://files.static-nzz.ch/2017/8/7/93872795-5ab9-4f94-bb3a-f6ed38c6b886.pdf|title=Flying solo – how far are we down the path towards pilotless planes?|work=UBS Global Research|date=7 August 2017|publisher=UBS|author=Jarrod Castle|display-authors=et al|access-date=August 17, 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170817163517/https://files.static-nzz.ch/2017/8/7/93872795-5ab9-4f94-bb3a-f6ed38c6b886.pdf|archive-date=August 17, 2017|url-status=dead}}</ref>

AVweb reporter Geoff Rapoport stated, "pilotless aircraft are an appealing prospect for airlines bracing for the need to hire several hundred thousand new pilots in the next decade. Wages and training costs have been rapidly rising at regional U.S. airlines over the last several years as the major airlines have hired pilots from the regionals at unprecedented rates to cover increased air travel demand from economic expansion and a wave of retirements".<ref name="Rapoport07Aug17">{{cite web|url = https://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Pilotless-Transport-Aircraft-by-2025-says-UBS-229474-1.html|title=Pilotless Transport Aircraft By 2025 Says UBS|access-date=9 August 2017|last=Rapoport|first=Geoff|work=AVweb|date=7 August 2017}}</ref>

Going to pilotless airliners could be done in one bold step or in gradual improvements like by reducing the cockpit crew for long haul missions or allowing single pilot cargo aircraft. The industry has not decided how to proceed yet. Present [[automated]] systems are not [[autonomous]] and must be monitored; their replacement could require [[artificial intelligence]] with [[machine learning]] while present certified [[software]] is [[deterministic]].<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-how-boeing-is-approaching-the-future-of-pi-440217/|title=How Boeing is approaching the future of pilotless airliners|date=21 Aug 2017|author=Stephen Trimble|work=Flightglobal|access-date=8 March 2018}}</ref> As the [[Airbus A350]] would only need minor modifications, [[Air Caraibes]] and [[French Bee]] parent Groupe Dubreuil see two-pilot crews in long-haul operations, without a third pilot for rotation, happening around 2024–2025.<ref>{{cite news |url= https://aviationweek.com/awincommercial/airline-ceo-sees-reduced-long-haul-crew-near-future |title= Airline CEO Sees Reduced Long-Haul Crew In Near Future |date= Dec 11, 2019 |author= Thierry Dubois |work= Aviation Week Network}}</ref>

Single-pilot freighters could start with regional flights.<ref>{{cite news |url= https://www.reuters.com/article/us-singapore-airshow-pilotless/freight-first-as-jetmakers-study-single-pilot-airplanes-idUSKBN1FS0SV|date=February 8, 2018|title=Freight first as jetmakers study single-pilot airplanes|author=Jamie Freed, Tim Hepher|work=[[Reuters]]|access-date=March 8, 2018}}</ref> The [[Air Line Pilots Association]] believe removing pilots would threaten [[aviation safety]] and opposes the April 2018 [[FAA]] Reauthorization Act's Section 744 establishing a [[research and development]] program to assist [[Single-pilot resource management|single-pilot]] cargo aircraft by remote and computer piloting.<ref>{{cite news |url= http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/opinion-why-two-pilots-cockpit-remains-essential |title= Opinion: Why Two Pilots In The Cockpit Remains Essential |date= Jul 31, 2018 |author= Tim Canoll |work= Aviation Week & Space Technology}}</ref>

For French aerospace research center [[Onera]] and avionics manufacturer [[Thales Group|Thales]], artificial intelligence (AI) like consumer [[neural network (machine learning)|neural networks]] learning from large datasets cannot explain their operation and cannot be certified for safe air transport.<!--<ref name=AvWeek26nov2018--> Progress towards ‘explainable’ AIs can be expected in the next decade, as the Onera expects "leads" for a certifiable AI system, along [[European Aviation Safety Agency|EASA]] standards evolution.<ref name=AvWeek26nov2018>{{cite news |url= http://aviationweek.com/defense/no-ai-cockpit-anytime-soon-onera-thales-say |title= No AI In Cockpit Anytime Soon, Onera, Thales Say |date= Nov 26, 2018 |author= Thierry Dubois |work= Aviation Week Network}}</ref>