Editing Hybrid vehicle (section)

==Adoption rate==
While the adoption rate for hybrids in the US is small today (2.2% of new car sales in 2011),<ref>Friday, Stephen On. (2012-04-06) [http://integrityexports.com/2012/04/06/prius-tops-japan-car-sales-in-2011-hybrids-now-16-percent-of-market/ IntegrityExports.com]. IntegrityExports.com. Retrieved on 2012-04-18.</ref> this compares with a 17.1% share of new car sales in Japan in 2011,<ref>Tuesday, Stephen On. (2012-04-10) [http://integrityexports.com/2012/04/10/hybrids-make-up-17-1-of-japans-new-car-sales-honda-has-highest-proportion/ IntegrityExports.com]. IntegrityExports.com. Retrieved on 2012-04-18.</ref> and it has the potential to be very large over time as more models are offered and incremental costs decline due to learning and scale benefits. However, forecasts vary widely. For instance, [[Bob Lutz (businessman)|Bob Lutz]], a long-time skeptic of hybrids, indicated he expects hybrids "will never comprise more than 10% of the US auto market."<ref>[http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-exechybrids-unlikely-to-take-more-than-10-of-us-market-2010-02-13 Marketwatch.com]. Marketwatch.com. Retrieved on 2012-04-18.</ref> Other sources also expect hybrid penetration rates in the US will remain under 10% for many years.<ref>Buss, Dale. (2010-09-12) [https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703632304575451720343127244 WSJ.com]. Online.wsj.com. Retrieved on 2012-04-18.</ref><ref>[http://www.motorauthority.com/blog/1024598_j-d-power-predicts-u-s-diesel-and-hybrid-sales-to-triple-by-2015 Motorauthority.com] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101108113259/http://www.motorauthority.com/blog/1024598_j-d-power-predicts-u-s-diesel-and-hybrid-sales-to-triple-by-2015 |date=2010-11-08 }}. Motorauthority.com (2008-04-07). Retrieved on 2012-04-18.</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20110708204514/https://emagazine.credit-suisse.com/app/article/index.cfm?fuseaction=OpenArticle&aoid=287312&lang=EN Credit-suisse.com]. Emagazine.credit-suisse.com (2010-07-23). Retrieved on 2012-04-18.</ref>

More optimistic views as of 2006 include predictions that hybrids would dominate new car sales in the US and elsewhere over the next 10 to 20 years.<ref>AllianceBernstein, "The Emergence of Hybrid Vehicles: Ending Oil's Stranglehold on Transportation and the Economy," June 2006. [http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/493.html Calcars.org]</ref> Another approach, taken by Saurin Shah, examines the penetration rates (or S-curves) of four analogs (historical and current) to hybrid and electrical vehicles in an attempt to gauge how quickly the vehicle stock could be hybridized and/or electrified in the United States. The analogs are (1) the electric motors in US factories in the early 20th century, (2) diesel-electric locomotives on US railways in the 1920–1945 period, (3) a range of new automotive features/technologies introduced in the US over the past fifty years, and 4) e-bike purchases in China over the past few years. These analogs collectively suggest it would take at least 30 years for hybrid and electric vehicles to capture 80% of the US passenger vehicle stock.<ref>{{cite book| first=Saurin D. |last=Shah |chapter=2 Electrification of Transport and Oil Displacement |title=Plug-In Electrical Vehicles: What Role for Washington |editor-first=David |editor-last=Sandalow |publisher=Brookings Institution |year=2009 |chapter-url= https://books.google.com/books?id=i9XEgUchZzgC&q=saurin%20shah%20and%20oil%20displacement&pg=PA22 |isbn=978-0-8157-0305-1 |access-date=2011-08-11 }}</ref>

The EPA expects the combined market share of new gasoline hybrid light-duty vehicles to reach 13.6% for the 2023 model year from 10.2% in the 2022 model year.<ref>{{cite web |author1=US Environmental Protection Agency |title=2023 EPA Automotive Trends Report |url=https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends/download-automotive-trends-report |website=www.epa.gov |publisher=OAR |access-date=12 December 2023 |page=57 |language=en |date=December 2023}}</ref>