Editing Famine (section)

==Risk of future famine==
{{Update|inaccurate=yes|article|date=December 2010}}
[[YALE Climate Communications|YALE climate connections]] reports that, as of 2022, approximately 34% of the world's agricultural land is degraded.<ref>[https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/01/un-report-the-worlds-farms-stretched-to-a-breaking-point/#:~:text=Similarly%2C%20the%20quality%20of%2013%25%20of%20global%20soil%2C,compaction%20and%20erosion%2C%20deforestation%2C%20and%20decreasing%20water%20availability. yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/01/un-report-the-worlds-farms-stretched-to-a-breaking-point] January 19th, 2022

Dana Nuccitelli</ref> If current trends of soil degradation continue in Africa, the continent might be able to feed just 20% of its population by 2030, according to a [[World Health Organization|WHO]] study in 2024.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Hunger numbers stubbornly high for three consecutive years as global crises deepen: UN report |url=https://www.who.int/news/item/24-07-2024-hunger-numbers-stubbornly-high-for-three-consecutive-years-as-global-crises-deepen--un-report#:~:text=If%20current%20trends%20continue,%20about%20582%20million%20people,Development%20(IFAD),%20the%20United%20Nations%20Children's%20Fund%20(UNICEF), |access-date=2024-11-27 |website=www.who.int |language=en}}</ref> As of late 2007, increased farming for use in [[biofuel]]s,<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2104849.0.2008_the_year_of_global_food_crisis.php |title= 2008 the Year of Global Food Crisis (From Sunday Herald)|website=www.sundayherald.com |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090822070637/http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2104849.0.2008_the_year_of_global_food_crisis.php |archive-date=22 August 2009}}</ref> along with world [[oil prices]] at nearly $100 a barrel,<ref>[http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0118/p08s01-comv.html "The global grain bubble"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20091130063759/http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0118/p08s01-comv.html |date=30 November 2009 }}, ''Christian Science Monitor''</ref> has pushed up the price of grain used to feed poultry and dairy cows and other cattle, causing higher prices of wheat (up 58%), soybean (up 32%), and maize (up 11%) over the year.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7284196.stm|title=The cost of food: Facts and figures|publisher=BBC News|access-date=1 February 2016|archive-date=20 January 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090120025945/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7284196.stm|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>''[[The New York Times]]'' (2007 September) [https://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/06/business/06tyson.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/Subjects/W/Wheat At Tyson and Kraft, Grain Costs Limit Profit] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170627090457/http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/06/business/06tyson.html?n=Top/Reference/Times%20Topics/Subjects/W/Wheat |date=27 June 2017 }}</ref> In 2007 [[2007–2008 world food price crisis|Food riots]] took place in many countries across the world.<ref>{{cite news |last=Watts |first=Jonathan |title=Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/dec/04/china.business |newspaper=The Guardian |date=4 December 2007 |access-date=11 December 2016 |archive-date=1 September 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130901074034/http://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/dec/04/china.business |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3500975.ece|title=Environment|newspaper=[[The Times]]|access-date=1 February 2016|archive-date=14 August 2011|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110814134028/http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article3500975.ece|url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Borger |first=Julian |title=Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/feb/26/food.unitednations |newspaper=The Guardian |date=26 February 2008 |access-date=11 December 2016 |archive-date=25 December 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161225150554/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/feb/26/food.unitednations |url-status=live }}</ref> An epidemic of stem rust, which is destructive to [[wheat]] and is caused by race [[Ug99]], has in 2007 spread across Africa and into Asia.<ref>{{cite news|title=Millions face famine as crop disease rages|url=https://www.theguardian.com/science/2007/apr/22/food.foodanddrink|newspaper=The Guardian|date=22 April 2007|access-date=11 December 2016|archive-date=10 May 2019|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190510201759/https://www.theguardian.com/science/2007/apr/22/food.foodanddrink|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name = NewSci>{{cite journal |url = https://www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19425983.700-billions-at-risk-from-wheat-superblight.html |journal = New Scientist |title = Billions at risk from wheat super-blight |date = 3 April 2007 |access-date = 19 April 2007 |issue = 2598 |pages = 6–7 |archive-date = 15 January 2023 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20230115175051/https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19425983-700-billions-at-risk-from-wheat-super-blight/ |url-status = live }}</ref>

Beginning in the 20th century, nitrogen [[fertilizer]]s, new [[pesticide]]s, [[desert farming]], and other agricultural technologies began to be used to increase food production, in part to combat famine. Between 1950 and 1984, as the [[Green Revolution]] influenced agriculture world grain production increased by 250%. Developed nations have shared these technologies with developing nations with a famine problem. However, as early as 1995, there were signs that these new developments may contribute to the decline of arable land (e.g. persistence of pesticides leading to [[soil contamination]], [[Soil salinity|salt accumulation due to irrigation]], [[erosion]]).
[[File:ShrinkingLakeChad-1973-1997-EO.jpg|thumb|upright=0.8|[[Lake Chad]] in a 2001 satellite image, with the actual lake in blue. The lake has shrunk by 95% since the 1960s.<ref>"[http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/04/0426_lakechadshrinks.html Shrinking African Lake Offers Lesson on Finite Resources] {{Webarchive|url=https://archive.today/20120629023727/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2001/04/0426_lakechadshrinks.html |date=29 June 2012 }}". National Geographic News.</ref>]]
In 1994, David Pimentel, professor of ecology and [[agriculture]] at [[Cornell University]], and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), estimated the maximum [[U.S. population]] for a [[sustainability|sustainable economy]] at 200 million.<ref>David Pimentel, Mario Giampietro 1994. Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy. Carrying Capacity Network, 1994. Book, online at http://www.dieoff.com/page55.htm {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190831134815/http://www.dieoff.com/page55.htm |date=31 August 2019 }} with highlights at http://www.dieoff.com/page40.htm {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150416073610/http://www.dieoff.com/page40.htm |date=16 April 2015 }}</ref>

According to geologist [[Dale Allen Pfeiffer]], coming decades could see rising [[food]] prices without relief and massive [[starvation]] on a global level.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2225|title=The Oil Drum: Europe&nbsp;— Agriculture Meets Peak Oil: Soil Association Conference|website=Europe.theoildurm.com|access-date=1 February 2016|archive-date=29 December 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20151229201243/http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2225|url-status=live}}</ref> [[Water deficits]], which are already spurring heavy [[grain]] imports in numerous smaller countries, may soon do the same in larger countries, such as China or India.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HG21Df01.html|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060819214402/http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/HG21Df01.html|url-status=unfit|archive-date=19 August 2006|title=India grows a grain crisis|website=[[Asia Times]] |access-date=1 February 2016}}</ref> The water tables are falling in many countries (including Northern China, the US, and India) due to widespread overconsumption. Other countries affected include Pakistan, Iran, and Mexico. This will eventually lead to [[water scarcity]] and cutbacks in grain harvest. Even while overexploiting its [[aquifers]], China has developed a grain deficit, contributing to the upward pressure on grain prices. Most of the three billion people projected to be added worldwide by mid-century will be born in countries already experiencing [[water shortages]].

After China and India, there is a second tier of smaller countries with large water deficits&nbsp;– Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Mexico, and Pakistan. Four of these already import a large share of their grain. Only Pakistan remains marginally self-sufficient. But with a population expanding by 4 million a year, it will also soon turn to the world market for grain.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.greatlakesdirectory.org/zarticles/080902_water_shortages.htm |title=greatlakesdirectory.org |website=greatlakesdirectory.org |access-date=1 February 2016 |url-status=dead |archive-url=http://arquivo.pt/wayback/20090713064841/http%3A//www%2Egreatlakesdirectory%2Eorg/zarticles/080902_water_shortages%2Ehtm |archive-date=13 July 2009 }}</ref> According to a UN climate report, the [[Himalayas|Himalayan]] glaciers that are the principal dry-season water sources of Asia's biggest rivers&nbsp;– [[Ganges]], [[Indus]], [[Brahmaputra]], [[Yangtze]], [[Mekong]], [[Salween]] and [[Yellow River|Yellow]]&nbsp;– could disappear by 2350 as temperatures rise and human demand rises.{{refn|Initial reports erroneously gave the year 2035 rather than the correct 2350.|group=note}}<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/42387/story.htm |title=Vanishing Himalayan Glaciers Threaten a Billion |website=Planetark.com |date=26 May 2014 |access-date=1 February 2016 |archive-date=29 April 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160429073719/http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/42387/story.htm |url-status=usurped }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8387737.stm |title=Himalayan glaciers melting deadline 'a mistake' |date=5 December 2009 |publisher=BBC |access-date=12 December 2009 |first=Pallava |last=Bagla |archive-date=12 May 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110512024513/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8387737.stm |url-status=live }}</ref> Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the [[drainage basin]] of the Himalayan rivers.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.peopleandplanet.net/pdoc.php?id=3024 |title= Peopleandplanet.net|website=www.peopleandplanet.net |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070819200515/http://www.peopleandplanet.net/pdoc.php?id=3024 |archive-date=19 August 2007}}</ref> India, China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by severe droughts in coming decades.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90781/90879/6222327.html|title=Glaciers melting at alarming speed|website=English.peopledaily.com.cn|access-date=1 February 2016|archive-date=23 September 2013|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130923011323/http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90781/90879/6222327.html|url-status=live}}</ref> In India alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/jul/24indus.htm|title=Ganges, Indus may not survive: climatologists|website=Rediff.com|access-date=1 February 2016|archive-date=11 October 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171011181913/http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/jul/24indus.htm|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3998967.stm|title=Himalaya glaciers melt unnoticed|website=BBC News|access-date=1 February 2016|archive-date=25 February 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200225131425/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3998967.stm|url-status=live}}</ref>

Evan Fraser, a geographer at the [[University of Guelph]] in [[Ontario]], Canada, explores the ways in which [[climate change]] may affect future famines.<ref>Fraser, E. 2007a. Travelling in antique lands: Studying past famines to understand present vulnerabilities to climate change. Climate Change 83:495–514.</ref> To do this, he draws on a range of historic cases where relatively small environmental problems triggered famines as a way of creating theoretical links between climate and famine in the future. Drawing on situations as diverse as the [[Great Famine (Ireland)|Great Famine of Ireland]],<ref>Fraser, E. 2003. Social vulnerability and ecological fragility: building bridges between social and natural sciences using the Irish Potato Famine as a case study. Conservation Ecology 7:9 (online).</ref> a series of weather induced famines in Asia during the late 19th century, and famines in Ethiopia during the 1980s, he concludes there are three "lines of defense" that protect a community's [[food security]] from [[environmental change]]. The first line of defense is the [[Agroecosystem|agro-ecosystem]] on which food is produced: diverse ecosystems with well managed soils high in [[organic matter]] tend to be more resilient. The second line of defense is the wealth and skills of individual households: If those households affected by bad weather such as drought have savings or skills they may be able to do all right despite the bad weather.<ref>{{cite journal |last=Papaioannou |first=Kostadis |title=Weather shocks and agricultural commercialization in colonial tropical Africa: did cash crops alleviate social distress? |journal=World Development |volume=94 |issue=3 |date=June 2017 |pages=346–365 |doi=10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.01.019 |url=http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/74029/1/Papaioannou_Weather%20shocks%20and%20agricultural_2017.pdf |access-date=9 December 2019 |archive-date=30 April 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190430060846/http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/74029/1/Papaioannou_Weather%20shocks%20and%20agricultural_2017.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> The final line of defense is created by the formal institutions present in a society. Governments, churches, or NGOs must be willing and able to mount effective relief efforts. Pulling this together, Evan Fraser argues that if an [[ecosystem]] is resilient enough, it may be able to withstand weather-related shocks. But if these shocks overwhelm the ecosystem's line of defense, it is necessary for the household to adapt using its skills and savings. If a problem is too big for the family or household, then people must rely on the third line of defense, which is whether or not the formal institutions present in a society are able to provide help. [[Evan Fraser (academic)|Evan Fraser]] concludes that in almost every situation where an environmental problem triggered a famine you see a failure in each of these three lines of defense.<ref name="Fraser2006">{{cite journal |last1=Fraser |first1=Evan D.G. |title=Food system vulnerability: Using past famines to help understand how food systems may adapt to climate change |journal=Ecological Complexity |date=December 2006 |volume=3 |issue=4 |pages=328–335 |doi=10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.02.006 |bibcode=2006EcoCm...3..328F }}</ref> Hence, understanding how climate change may cause famines in the future requires combining both an assessment of local socio-economic and environmental factors along with [[climate models]] that predict where bad weather may occur in the future.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Simelton |first1=Elisabeth |last2=Fraser |first2=Evan D.G. |last3=Termansen |first3=Mette |last4=Forster |first4=Piers M. |last5=Dougill |first5=Andrew J. |title=Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socio-economic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961–2001) |journal=Environmental Science & Policy |date=June 2009 |volume=12 |issue=4 |pages=438–452 |doi=10.1016/j.envsci.2008.11.005 |bibcode=2009ESPol..12..438S }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Simelton |first1=Elisabeth |last2=Fraser |first2=Evan D. G. |last3=Termansen |first3=Mette |last4=Benton |first4=Tim G. |last5=Gosling |first5=Simon N. |last6=South |first6=Andrew |last7=Arnell |first7=Nigel W. |last8=Challinor |first8=Andrew J. |last9=Dougill |first9=Andrew J. |last10=Forster |first10=Piers M. |title=The socioeconomics of food crop production and climate change vulnerability: a global scale quantitative analysis of how grain crops are sensitive to drought |journal=Food Security |date=6 March 2012 |volume=4 |issue=2 |pages=163–179 |doi=10.1007/s12571-012-0173-4 |s2cid=17190790 }}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Fraser |first1=Evan D.G. |last2=Simelton |first2=Elisabeth |last3=Termansen |first3=Mette |last4=Gosling |first4=Simon N. |last5=South |first5=Andrew |title='Vulnerability hotspots': Integrating socio-economic and hydrological models to identify where cereal production may decline in the future due to climate change induced drought |journal=Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |date=March 2013 |volume=170 |pages=195–205 |doi=10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.04.008 |bibcode=2013AgFM..170..195F }}</ref>

The [[COVID-19 pandemic]], alongside lockdowns and travel restrictions, has prevented movement of aid and greatly impacted food production. As a result, several famines are forecast, which the [[United Nations]] called a crisis "of biblical proportions",<ref>{{Cite news |last=Harvey |first=Fiona |author-link=Fiona Harvey |date=21 April 2020 |title=Coronavirus pandemic 'will cause famine of biblical proportions' |url=https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/21/coronavirus-pandemic-will-cause-famine-of-biblical-proportions |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200712070926/https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/21/coronavirus-pandemic-will-cause-famine-of-biblical-proportions |archive-date=12 July 2020 |access-date=14 July 2020 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref> or "hunger pandemic".<ref>{{Cite web|title=UN food agency chief: World on brink of 'a hunger pandemic'|url=https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/food-agency-chief-world-brink-hunger-pandemic-70269400|website=ABC News|language=en|access-date=14 July 2020|archive-date=24 December 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211224022544/https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/food-agency-chief-world-brink-hunger-pandemic-70269400|url-status=live}}</ref> This pandemic, in conjunction with the [[2019-20 locust infestation]]s and several [[ongoing armed conflicts]], is predicted to form the worst series of famines since the [[Great Chinese Famine]], affecting between 10 and 20 percent of the global population in some way.<ref>{{Cite web|date=16 May 2020|title=COVID 19 Today and China's Great Famine|url=https://www.theglobalist.com/united-states-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid19-china-mao-zedong-great-famine/|website=The Globalist|language=en-US|access-date=14 July 2020|archive-date=20 June 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200620025324/https://www.theglobalist.com/united-states-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid19-china-mao-zedong-great-famine/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |last=Harvey |first=Fiona |author-link=Fiona Harvey |date=21 April 2020 |title=Coronavirus crisis could double number of people suffering acute hunger – UN |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/global-hunger-could-be-next-big-impact-of-coronavirus-pandemic |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200616221317/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/global-hunger-could-be-next-big-impact-of-coronavirus-pandemic |archive-date=16 June 2020 |access-date=14 July 2020 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}}</ref>

Western nations suspended humanitarian aid to [[Afghanistan]] following the [[Taliban]]'s takeover of the country in August 2021.<ref>{{cite news |title=Afghanistan: Can the Taliban avert a food crisis without foreign aid? |url=https://www.dw.com/en/afghanistan-can-the-taliban-avert-a-food-crisis-without-foreign-aid/a-59790464 |work=Deutsche Welle |date=11 November 2021 |access-date=13 November 2021 |archive-date=26 December 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221226203615/http://www.dw.com/en/afghanistan-can-the-taliban-avert-a-food-crisis-without-foreign-aid/a-59790464 |url-status=live }}</ref> The United States has [[Afghan frozen assets|frozen about $9 billion]] in assets belonging to the [[Da Afghanistan Bank|Afghan central bank]]s,<ref>{{cite news |title=Taliban blames U.S. as 1 million Afghan kids face death by starvation |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/afghanistan-taliban-blames-us-as-1-million-kids-face-starvation/ |work=CBS News |date=20 October 2021 |access-date=13 November 2021 |archive-date=12 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220512115310/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/afghanistan-taliban-blames-us-as-1-million-kids-face-starvation/ |url-status=live }}</ref> blocking the Taliban from accessing billions of dollars held in U.S. bank accounts.<ref>{{cite news |title=Is the United States Driving Afghanistan Toward Famine? |url=https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=30&emc=edit_int_20211029&instance_id=44044&nl=the-interpreter&productCode=INT&regi_id=57806557&segment_id=72971&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fde4d3c8a-f805-5843-bf23-d2fd9a6bcf70&user_id=9aa4b6ac6a6bfa9626d966e353fed48b |work=The New York Times |date=29 October 2021 |access-date=13 November 2021 |archive-date=13 December 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221213141440/https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=30&emc=edit_int_20211029&instance_id=44044&nl=the-interpreter&productCode=INT&regi_id=57806557&segment_id=72971&te=1&uri=nyt%3A%2F%2Fnewsletter%2Fde4d3c8a-f805-5843-bf23-d2fd9a6bcf70&user_id=9aa4b6ac6a6bfa9626d966e353fed48b |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Afghanistan's hunger crisis is a problem the U.S. can fix |url=https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/afghanistan-s-hunger-crisis-problem-u-s-can-fix-n1283618 |work=MSNBC |date=10 November 2021 |access-date=13 November 2021 |archive-date=13 December 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221213141454/https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/afghanistan-s-hunger-crisis-problem-u-s-can-fix-n1283618 |url-status=live }}</ref> In October 2021, more than half of Afghanistan's 39 million people faced an acute [[Food security|food shortage]].<ref>{{cite news |title='Countdown to catastrophe': half of Afghans face hunger this winter – UN |url=https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/oct/25/countdown-to-catastrophe-half-of-afghans-face-hunger-this-winter-un |work=The Guardian |date=25 October 2021 |access-date=13 November 2021 |archive-date=9 June 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220609005548/https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/oct/25/countdown-to-catastrophe-half-of-afghans-face-hunger-this-winter-un |url-status=live }}</ref> On 11 November 2021, the ''[[Human Rights Watch]]'' reported that Afghanistan is facing widespread famine due to collapsed economy and broken banking system. The [[World Food Programme|UN World Food Programme]] has also issued multiple warnings of worsening food insecurity.<ref>{{cite news |title=Afghanistan Facing Famine: UN, World Bank, US Should Adjust Sanctions, Economic Policies |url=https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/11/11/afghanistan-facing-famine |work=Human Rights Watch |date=11 November 2021 |access-date=13 November 2021 |archive-date=12 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220512115310/https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/11/11/afghanistan-facing-famine |url-status=live }}</ref>