Editing World War III (section)

==Hypothetical scenarios==
In 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of World War&nbsp;II, physicist [[Albert Einstein]] suggested that any outcome of a possible World War&nbsp;III would be so catastrophic upon [[Civilization|human civilization]] so as to revert mankind to the [[Stone Age]]. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War{{nbsp}}III might be fought with, Einstein warned, "''I know not with what weapons World War{{nbsp}}III will be fought, but World War{{nbsp}}IV will be fought with sticks and stones''".<ref name="einstein">''The New Quotable Einstein''. Alice Calaprice (2005), p. 173.</ref><ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna7406337 |title=The culture of Einstein |last=Johnson |first=M. Alex |date=18 April 2005 |website=MSNBC |language=en |access-date=27 January 2018 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180208205219/http://www.nbcnews.com/id/7406337#.WmyV55OdU3g |archive-date=8 February 2018 |url-status=live }}</ref>

As for the [[Human extinction|extermination of the human race]] as a [[Nuclear holocaust|consequence of atomic war]], [[Leslie A. White]] challenged Einstein, "this too may be admitted as possibility, and all we can say is that if it is to come, it will come. Extravagant expressions of horror will not alter the course of events."<ref>{{Cite book |last= |first= |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=MgwAAAAAMBAJ&q=condon |title=Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists |date=1946-03-15 |publisher=Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. |language=en |access-date=28 March 2023 |archive-date=4 June 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230604144015/https://books.google.com/books?id=MgwAAAAAMBAJ&q=condon |url-status=live }}</ref> [[Crane Brinton]] also doubted the psychological pacification of Einstein: "Teachers, preachers, educators, even politicians are telling the growing generation that there must be no war and, therefore, there will be no war. I have doubts as to whether this is wise teaching…" In spite of the atomic bomb, there will be another general war and humanity will survive it, according to Brinton.<ref>Brinton, Crane, (1948). ''From Many to One: The Process of Political Integration, the Problem of World Government'', (Westport: Greenwood Press), p 4.</ref> [[James Burnham]] of the [[Office of Strategic Services]] (the precursor to the [[Central Intelligence Agency|CIA]]), also believed in survival: The uniqueness of the atomic weapons is commonly found in that they can totally annihilate human life, including through climatic and geological chain reaction, but such is not the case. The great principles of military strategy stand unaltered. An atomic war will look different from older wars but it will be decided by the same combination of resources, morale and strategy.<ref>Burnham, James, (1947). ''Struggle for the World'', (New York: The John Day Company), pp 26, 28-29.</ref>

A 1998 ''[[New England Journal of Medicine]]'' overview found that "Although many people believe that the threat of a nuclear attack largely disappeared with the end of the Cold War, there is considerable evidence to the contrary".<ref name="Forrow-1998"/> In particular, the [[United States – Russia mutual detargeting|United States–Russia mutual detargeting agreement]] in 1994 was largely symbolic and did not change the amount of time required to launch an attack. The most likely "accidental-attack" scenario was believed to be a [[Second strike|retaliatory launch]] due to a false warning, similar to the 1983 incident.<ref name="Forrow-1998">{{cite journal |last1=Forrow |first1=Lachlan |last2=Blair |first2=Bruce G. |last3=Helfand |first3=Ira |last4=Lewis |first4=George |last5=Postol |first5=Theodore |last6=Sidel |first6=Victor |last7=Levy |first7=Barry S. |last8=Abrams |first8=Herbert |last9=Cassel |first9=Christine |title=Accidental Nuclear War — A Post–Cold War Assessment |journal=New England Journal of Medicine |date=30 April 1998 |volume=338 |issue=18 |pages=1326–1332 |doi=10.1056/NEJM199804303381824|pmid=9562589 |doi-access=free  |issn=0028-4793 }}</ref> Historically, World War&nbsp;I happened through an escalating crisis; World War&nbsp;II happened through deliberate action. Hypothesized flashpoints in the 2010s and the 2020s include the [[Russian invasion of Ukraine]], [[Territorial disputes in the South China Sea|Chinese expansion into adjacent islands and seas]],<ref name="Singer-2015">{{cite news |title=This Is What World War III Will Look Like |url=https://time.com/3934583/world-war-3/ |date=2015 |access-date=22 March 2020 |magazine=Time |language=en |archive-date=29 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200329011526/https://time.com/3934583/world-war-3/ |url-status=live }}</ref> [[Sino-Indian border dispute]], [[PRC threat of military operation against Taiwan|Chinese threats of military operation against Taiwan]], [[Indo-Pakistani wars and conflicts|Indo-Pakistani wars border conflicts]], and [[foreign involvement in the Syrian civil war]]. Other hypothesized risks are that a war involving or between [[Saudi Arabia]] and [[Iran]], [[Israel]] and Iran, [[United States]] and Iran, [[India]] and [[Pakistan]], [[Ukraine]] and [[Russia]], [[Poland]] and [[Belarus]], [[South Korea]] and [[North Korea]], or [[Taiwan]] and [[China]] could escalate via alliances or intervention into a war between "great powers" such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, China, India, Japan or an all out war between military alliances [[NATO]] and [[CSTO]], or even the possibility of a "rogue commander" under any nuclear power might launch an unauthorized strike that escalates into a full-blown war.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Rosenbaum |first1=Ron |author-link=Ron Rosenbaum| title=How the end begins: the road to a nuclear World War III |date=2011 |publisher=Simon & Schuster |isbn=978-1-4391-9007-4 |edition=1st Simon & Schuster hardcover}}</ref>

According to a peer-reviewed study published in the journal ''[[Nature Food]]'' in August 2022, a full-scale nuclear war between the United States and Russia, releasing over 150 Tg of stratospheric soot, could indirectly kill more than five billion people by [[starvation]] during a [[nuclear winter]]. More than two billion people could die of starvation from a smaller-scale (5–47 Tg) nuclear war between India and Pakistan.<ref>{{cite journal |title=Global food insecurity and famine from the reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection |journal=[[Nature Food]] |date=15 August 2022 |doi=10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0 |last1=Xia |first1=Lili |last2=Robock |first2=Alan |last3=Scherrer |first3=Kim |last4=Harrison |first4=Cheryl S. |last5=Bodirsky |first5=Benjamin Leon |last6=Weindl |first6=Isabelle |last7=Jägermeyr |first7=Jonas |last8=Bardeen |first8=Charles G. |last9=Toon |first9=Owen B. |last10=Heneghan |first10=Ryan |volume=3 |issue=8 |pages=586–596 |pmid=37118594 |s2cid=251601831 |doi-access=free |hdl=11250/3039288 |hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=World Nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia would kill more than 5 billion people – just from starvation, study finds |url=https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nuclear-war-5-billion-people-starvation-deaths-study/ |work=CBS News |date=16 August 2022 |access-date=7 November 2022 |archive-date=26 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221026190805/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nuclear-war-5-billion-people-starvation-deaths-study/ |url-status=live }}</ref> In the event of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States, 99% of the population in the belligerent countries, as well as Europe and China, would die.<ref name="Tegmark-2023">{{cite magazine |last=Tegmark |first=Max |date=29 June 2023 |title=Here's How Bad a Nuclear War Would Actually Be |magazine=Time |url=https://time.com/6290977/nuclear-war-impact-essay/ |access-date=10 August 2023 |archive-date=22 January 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240122053620/https://time.com/6290977/nuclear-war-impact-essay/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

Some scenarios involve risks due to upcoming changes from the known status quo. In the 1980s the [[Strategic Defense Initiative]] made an effort at nullifying the USSR's nuclear arsenal; some analysts believe the initiative was "destabilizing".<ref>{{cite news |last1=Rosen |first1=Armin |title=A Newly Declassified CIA Paper Details A Tense Subplot In The Cold War Arms Race |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/why-missile-defense-terrified-the-soviets-2014-10 |access-date=22 March 2020 |work=Business Insider |date=2014 |archive-date=22 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200322204517/https://www.businessinsider.com/why-missile-defense-terrified-the-soviets-2014-10 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=Lepore |first1=Jill |title=The Atomic Origins of Climate Science |url=https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/the-atomic-origins-of-climate-science |access-date=22 March 2020 |magazine=The New Yorker |date=2017 |language=en |archive-date=15 July 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200715163218/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/30/the-atomic-origins-of-climate-science |url-status=live }}</ref> In his book ''Destined for War'', [[Graham Allison]] views the global rivalry between the established power, the US, and the rising power, China, as an example of the [[Thucydides Trap]]. Allison states that historically, "12 of 16 past cases where a rising power has confronted a ruling power" have led to fighting.<ref>Graham Allison (2017). ''Destined for War'', Scribe, p. 215</ref>  In 2020 and 2023, the ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' advanced its Doomsday Clock, citing among other factors a predicted destabilizing effect from upcoming [[Hypersonic flight#Hypersonic weapons development|hypersonic weapons]].<ref>{{cite news |title=Pentagon successfully tests nuclear-capable hypersonic missile |url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/21/world/us-military-tests-nuclear-hypersonic-missile/ |access-date=22 March 2020 |work=The Japan Times Online |agency=AFP-JIJI |date=21 March 2020 |archive-date=21 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200321134929/https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/21/world/us-military-tests-nuclear-hypersonic-missile/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

Emerging technologies, such as [[artificial intelligence]], could hypothetically generate risk in the decades ahead. A 2018 [[RAND Corporation]] report has argued that AI and associated information technology "will have a large effect on nuclear-security issues in the next quarter century". A hypothetical future AI could provide a destabilizing ability to track "second-launch" launchers. Incorporating AI into decision support systems used to decide whether to launch, could also generate new risks, including the risk of an [[Adversarial machine learning|adversarial exploitation]] of such an AI's algorithms by a third party to trigger a launch recommendation.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Browne |first1=Ryan |title=A.I. could lead to a nuclear war by 2040, think tank warns |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/ai-could-lead-to-a-nuclear-war-by-2040-rand-corporation-warns.html |access-date=22 March 2020 |work=CNBC |date=25 April 2018 |language=en |archive-date=22 March 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200322204500/https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/25/ai-could-lead-to-a-nuclear-war-by-2040-rand-corporation-warns.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>Geist, Edward and Andrew J. Lohn, How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War?. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2018. [https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE296.html] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200322204503/https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE296.html|date=22 March 2020}}.</ref> A perception that some sort of emerging technology would lead to "world domination" might also be destabilizing, for example by leading to fear of a pre-emptive strike.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Sotala|first1=Kaj|last2=Yampolskiy|first2=Roman V|date=19 December 2014|title=Responses to catastrophic AGI risk: a survey|journal=Physica Scripta|volume=90|issue=1|page=12|doi=10.1088/0031-8949/90/1/018001|issn=0031-8949|doi-access=free}}</ref>

[[Cyberwarfare]] is the exploitation of technology by a nation-state or international organization to attack and destroy the opposing nation's information networks and computers. The damage can be caused by computer viruses or denial-of-service attacks (DoS). Cyberattacks are becoming increasingly common, threatening cybersecurity and making it a global priority.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Cyber Warfare |url=https://www.rand.org/topics/cyber-warfare.html |access-date=2022-05-02 |website=www.rand.org |language=en |archive-date=22 April 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220422105046/https://www.rand.org/topics/cyber-warfare.html |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Garon-2018">{{Cite journal |last=Garon |first=Jon M. |date=2018 |title=Cyber-World War III: Origins |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/26777962 |journal=Journal of Law & Cyber Warfare |volume=7 |issue=1 |pages=1–60 |jstor=26777962 |issn=2578-6245 |access-date=2 May 2022 |archive-date=2 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220502040218/https://www.jstor.org/stable/26777962 |url-status=live }}</ref> There has been a proliferation of state-sponsored attacks. The trends of these attacks suggest the potential of a cyber World War III.<ref name="Garon-2018"/> The world's leading militaries are developing cyber strategies, including ways to alter the enemy's command and control systems, early warning systems, logistics, and transportation.<ref name="Garon-2018"/> The [[Russian invasion of Ukraine|2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine]] has sparked concerns about a large-scale [[cyberattack]], with Russia having previously launched cyberattacks to compromise organizations across Ukraine. Nearly 40 discrete attacks were launched by Russia which permanently destroyed files in hundreds of systems across dozens of organizations, with 40% aimed at critical infrastructure sectors in Ukraine.<ref name=overview>{{Cite web |date=April 27, 2022 |title=An overview of Russia's cyberattack activity in Ukraine Special Report: Ukraine Digital Security Unit |url=https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RE4Vwwd |website=Microsoft |access-date=2 May 2022 |archive-date=2 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220502132256/https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RE4Vwwd |url-status=live }}</ref> Russia's use of cyberwarfare has turned the war into a large-scale "hybrid" war in Ukraine.<ref name=overview/>