Editing Baltic Sea (section)

== Future change ==

[[Climate change]], and [[Water pollution|pollution]] from agriculture and forestry, impose such strong effects on the ecosystems of the Baltic sea, that there is a concern the sea will turn from a [[carbon sink]] to a source of [[Carbon dioxide|CO2]] and [[methane]].<ref>{{cite web |last1=Korkman |first1=Anna |title=Warming Baltic Sea: a red flag for global oceans |url=https://phys.org/news/2024-07-baltic-sea-red-flag-global.html |website=Phys.org |access-date=19 July 2024}}</ref> Modelling climate change and the impact of well characterised factors such as post-glacial rebound before the year 2050, is complicated by the unique properties of the Baltic Sea area compared to say the adjacent North Sea and controversy as to the relative contributions of socio-economic factors such as land use to any warming component.<ref name="Meier2022">{{cite journal|last1=Meier|first1=H.M.|last2=Kniebusch, M.|last3=Dieterich, C.|last4=Gröger, M.|last5=Zorita, E.|last6=Elmgren, R.V|last7=Myrberg, K.|last8=Ahola, M.P.|last9=Bartosova, A.|last10=Bonsdorff, E.|last11=Börgel, F.|date=15 March 2022|title=Climate change in the Baltic Sea region: a summary|journal=Earth System Dynamics|volume=13|issue=1|pages=457–593|doi=10.5194/esd-13-457-2022|doi-access=free|bibcode=2022ESD....13..457M|hdl=11250/3043839|hdl-access=free}}</ref>{{rp|p=537}} These include its current brackish water, the southern subbasin tendency to have a vertical stratification of the halocline, and the northern subbasin seasonal sea ice cover.<ref name="Meier2022"/>{{rp|p=458}} [[Analytic confidence|High confidence]] future projections include: air temperature warming, more heavy precipitation episodes, less snow with less perifrost and glacial ice mass in northern catchment areas, more mild winters, raised mean water temperature with more marine heatwaves, intensified seasonal [[thermocline]]s without change in the [[thermohaline circulation]], and [[sea level rise]].<ref name="Meier2022"/>{{rp|pp=547, 458–9}} There are many more projections but these have lower confidence.<ref name="Meier2022"/>{{rp|pp=547, 458–9}}<ref group="note">All future projections have limits and make assumptions. The cause of the [[Younger Dryas]] which impacted on the Baltic area is unknown and such an event is not considered in most Baltic Sea future modelling.</ref>