Editing Simon–Ehrlich wager (section)

==The proposed second wager==
Understanding that Simon wanted to bet again, Ehrlich and climatologist [[Stephen Schneider (scientist)|Stephen Schneider]] counter-offered, challenging Simon to bet on 15 current trends, betting $1,000 that each will get worse (as in the previous wager) over a ten-year future period.<ref name=ehrlich-1998/>

The bets were:
* The three years 2002–2004 will, on average, be warmer than 1992–1994.
* There will be more [[carbon dioxide]] in the [[Earth's atmosphere|atmosphere]] in 2004 than in 1994.
* There will be more [[nitrous oxide]] in the atmosphere in 2004 than 1994.
* The concentration of [[ozone]] in the lower atmosphere (the [[troposphere]]) will be greater than in 1994.
* Emissions of the air pollutant [[sulfur dioxide]] in [[Asia]] will be significantly greater in 2004 than in 1994.
* There will be less fertile [[cropland]] per person in 2004 than in 1994.
* There will be less [[Agriculture|agricultural]] soil per person in 2004 than 1994.
* There will be on average less [[rice]] and [[wheat]] grown per person in 2002–2004 than in 1992–1994.
* In [[developing nations]] there will be less [[firewood]] available per person in 2004 than in 1994.
* The remaining area of virgin tropical moist [[forest]]s will be significantly smaller in 2004 than in 1994.
* The [[ocean]]ic [[fishery]] harvest per person will continue its downward trend and, thus, in 2004, will be smaller than in 1994.
* There will be fewer [[plant]] and [[animal]] [[species]] still extant in 2004 than in 1994.
* More people will die of [[AIDS]] in 2004 than in 1994.
* Between 1994 and 2004, [[Male infertility crisis|sperm cell counts of human males will continue]] to decline, and reproductive disorders will continue to increase.
* The [[Income inequality|gap in wealth]] between the richest 10% of humanity and the poorest 10% will be greater in 2004 than in 1994.

Simon declined Ehrlich and Schneider's offer to bet, and used the following analogy to explain why he did so:<ref>{{cite web| url = http://jasoncollins.org/2011/05/20/the-simon-ehrlich-bet/| title = The Simon-Ehrlich bet - Jason Collins blog| date = 20 May 2011}}</ref>

{{Blockquote|Let me characterize their offer as follows. I predict, and this is for real, that the average performances in the next [[Olympic Games|Olympics]] will be better than those in the last Olympics. On average, the performances have gotten better, Olympics to Olympics, for a variety of reasons. What Ehrlich and others says {{sic}} is that they don't want to bet on athletic performances, they want to bet on the conditions of the track, or the weather, or the officials, or any other such indirect measure.}}

In his 1981 book ''[[The Ultimate Resource]]'', Simon noted that not all decreases in resources or increases in unwanted effects correspond to overall decreases in human wellbeing.<ref name="Simon-1981">{{cite book|last1=Simon|first1=Julian|title=The Ultimate Resource|date=August 1981|publisher=Princeton University Press|location=Princeton|isbn=069109389X|edition=Hardcover|url=https://archive.org/details/ultimateresource00juli|url-access=registration}}</ref> Hence, there can be an "optimal level of pollution", which accepts some increases in certain kinds of pollution in a way that increases overall wellbeing while acknowledging that any increase in pollution is nevertheless a cost that must be considered in any such calculation.{{R|Simon-1981|p=143}} Simon's theory of resource development actually predicts some of the aforementioned trends, which do not in and of themselves even qualify as costs (unlike pollution). E.g., he pointed out that, due to increased efficiency, the amount of cropland required and actually used to grow food for each person has decreased over time and is likely to continue to do so {{R|Simon-1981|p=5}}. The same might potentially be true of decreased reliance on firewood in developing countries and per capita use of specific food sources like rice, wheat, and fish if economic development makes a diverse range of alternative foods available. Some have also proven false, e.g., the amount of ozone in the lower atmosphere has decreased from 1994 to 2004.<ref>{{Cite web |last=US EPA |first=OAR |date=2016-05-04 |title=Ozone Trends |url=https://www.epa.gov/air-trends/ozone-trends |access-date=2024-05-23 |website=www.epa.gov |language=en}}</ref>

If Simon had taken the bet, he would have lost on 11 out of 15 trends.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Desrochers |first1=Pierre |last2=Geloso |first2=Vincent |last3=Szurmak |first3=Joanna |title=Care to Wager Again? An Appraisal of Paul Ehrlich's Counterbet Offer to Julian Simon, Part 2: Critical Analysis |journal=Social Science Quarterly |date=March 2021 |volume=102 |issue=2 |pages=808–829 |doi=10.1111/ssqu.12920 |url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ssqu.12928}}</ref>