Editing John Lott (section)

===Concealed weapons and crime rate===

In a 1997 article written with David B. Mustard<ref name="LottMust97">John R. Lott Jr. and David B. Mustard, "Crime, Deterrence and Right-To-Carry Concealed Handguns", 26 ''Journal of Legal Studies'' 1 (1997) [http://www.law.uchicago.edu/files/files/41.lott_.final_.pdf working paper PDF] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100616105437/http://www.law.uchicago.edu/files/files/41.lott_.final_.pdf |date=2010-06-16 }}; [http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/toc/jls/1997/26/1 journal article PDF] {{subscription required}}.</ref> and Lott's subsequent books ''[[More Guns, Less Crime]]'' and ''[[The Bias Against Guns]]'', Lott argued that allowing adults to carry [[concealed weapon]]s significantly reduces crime in America. In 2004, the [[United States National Academy of Sciences|National Academy of Sciences]] (NAS) National Research Council (NRC) conducted a review of current research and data on firearms and violent crime, including Lott's work, and concluded "that with the current evidence it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage of [[right-to-carry]] laws and crime rates."<ref>[http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309091241/html/2.html NAS, ''Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review'' (2004)] Executive Summary, Major Conclusions, p. 2. Ch. 6 Right-to-Carry Laws, pp. 120–151, reviews research by Lott and others on this issue.</ref> The NAS report wrote of Lott's work, "The initial model specification, when extended to new data, does not show evidence that passage of right-to-carry laws reduces crime. The estimated effects are highly sensitive to seemingly minor changes in the model specification and control variables."<ref name=":3">{{Cite web |last1=Farley |first1=Robert |last2=Robertson |first2=Lori |last3=Kiely |first3=Eugene |date=2012-12-20 |title=Gun Rhetoric vs. Gun Facts |url=https://www.factcheck.org/2012/12/gun-rhetoric-vs-gun-facts/ |access-date=2021-01-02|website=FactCheck.org|language=en-US}}</ref> The criminologist [[James Q. Wilson]] was the only member on the 18-member NAS panel who dissented from this conclusion.<ref>{{cite book |url=http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10881&page=269 |title=Firearms and Violence: A Critical Review |pages=269–270 |isbn=0-309-09124-1 |year=2004 |chapter=Appendix A Dissent |first=James Q. |last=Wilson |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121016133952/http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10881&page=269 |archive-date=October 16, 2012 }}</ref><ref name=":3" /> For similar reasons as highlighted by the NAS, as well as "multiple serious problems with data and methodology", a 2020 comprehensive review of existing research on concealed-carry by the [[RAND Corporation]] discounted Lott's studies.<ref>{{Cite web|title=Effects of Concealed-Carry Laws on Violent Crime |url=https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/analysis/concealed-carry/violent-crime.html|access-date=2021-01-02 |website=rand.org|language=en}}</ref>

Other reviews said that there were problems with Lott's model. A replication by Dan A. Black and [[Daniel Nagin]] found that minor adjustments to Lott and Mustard's model led to the disappearance of the findings.<ref name="Black">{{Cite journal|last=Black|first=Dan A.|author2=Daniel S. Nagin|date=January 1998|title=Do Right-to-Carry Laws Deter Violent Crime?|journal=Journal of Legal Studies|volume=27|issue=1|page=214|doi=10.1086/468019|s2cid=154626760}}</ref><ref name=":4">[http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/mythsofmurder.htm Ted Goertzel, "Myths of Murder and Multiple Regression", ''The Skeptical Inquirer''], Volume 26, No 1, January/February 2002, pp. 19–23. Expanded as:  [http://crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/econojunk.doc Ted Goertzel, "Econometric Modeling as Junk Science"]</ref> In the ''[[New England Journal of Medicine]]'', [[David Hemenway]] argued that Lott failed to account for several key variables, including drug consumption.<ref name="Hemenway">{{Cite journal|last=Hemenway |first=David |date=December 31, 1998 |journal=The New England Journal of Medicine |title=More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding crime and gun-control laws / Making A Killing: The business of guns in America |volume=339 |issue=27 |pages=2029–2030 |doi=10.1056/NEJM199812313392719}}</ref> [[Ian Ayres]] and [[John J. Donohue III|John J. Donohue]] said that the model used by Lott contained significant coding errors and [[systemic bias]].<ref name="shootdown">{{Cite journal|last=Ayres |first=Ian |author2=John J. Donohue III |date=April 2003 |title=Shooting Down the 'More Guns, Less Crime' Hypothesis |journal=Stanford Law Review |volume=55 |issue=4 |page=1193 |doi= 10.2139/ssrn.343781|s2cid=55757925 |url=http://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/fss_papers/1241 }}</ref> In the ''American Journal of Public Health'', [[Daniel Webster (academic)|Daniel Webster]] et al. also raised concerns about flaws in the study, such as misclassification of laws and endogeneity of predictor variables, which they said rendered the study's conclusions "insupportable".<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Webster|first1=D W|last2=Vernick|first2=J S|last3=Ludwig|first3=J|last4=Lester|first4=K J|title=Flawed gun policy research could endanger public safety.|journal=American Journal of Public Health|date=June 1997|volume=87|issue=6|pages=918–921|doi=10.2105/AJPH.87.6.918|pmid=9224169|pmc=1380922}}</ref> Florida State University criminologist [[Gary Kleck]] considered it unlikely that such a large decrease in violent crime could be explained by a relatively modest increase in [[concealed carry in the United States|concealed carry]].<ref>{{Cite book| last=Kleck| first=Gary| title=Targeting Guns: Firearms and Their Control| location=New York| publisher=Aldine de Gruyter| year=1997}}</ref> A 1998 study by [[Jens Ludwig (economist)|Jens Ludwig]] that said it "more effectively control[ed] for unobserved variables that may vary over time" than the Lott and Mustard study concluded that "shall-issue laws have resulted, if anything, in an increase in adult homicide rates."<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Ludwig|first1=Jens|title=Concealed-gun-carrying laws and violent crime: evidence from state panel data|journal=International Review of Law and Economics|date=September 1998|volume=18|issue=3|pages=239–254|doi=10.1016/S0144-8188(98)00012-X|url=http://student-www.uchicago.edu/~ludwigj/papers/IJLE-ConcealedGunLaws-1998.pdf |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221009/http://student-www.uchicago.edu/~ludwigj/papers/IJLE-ConcealedGunLaws-1998.pdf |archive-date=2022-10-09 |url-status=live|citeseerx=10.1.1.487.5452}}</ref> A 2001 study in the ''[[Journal of Political Economy]]'' by University of Chicago economist [[Mark Duggan (economist)|Mark Duggan]] did robustness checks of Lott and Mustard's study and found that the findings of the Lott and Mustard study were inaccurate.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Duggan|first=Mark|date=2001-10-01|title=More Guns, More Crime|journal=Journal of Political Economy|volume=109|issue=5|pages=1086–1114|doi=10.1086/322833|s2cid=33899679|issn=0022-3808}}</ref>

Other academics praised Lott's methodology, including [[Florida State University]] economist [[Bruce L. Benson|Bruce Benson]],<ref name="Benson">{{Cite journal|last=Benson|first=Bruce L.|date=September 1999|title=Review of ''More Guns, Less Crime''|journal=Public Choice|volume=100|issue=3–4|pages=309–313|doi=10.1023/A:1018689310638|s2cid=150500420}}</ref> [[Cardozo School of Law]] professor [[John O. McGinnis]],<ref name="McGinnis">{{Cite journal|last=McGinnis|first=John O.|date=July 20, 1998|title=Trigger Happiness|journal=[[National Review]]|volume=50|issue=13|page=49}}</ref> [[College of William and Mary]] professor [[Carlisle Moody]],<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Moody|first1=Carlisle E.|date=October 2001|title=Testing for the Effects of Concealed Weapons Laws: Specification Errors and Robustness|journal=The Journal of Law and Economics|volume=44|issue=s2|pages=799–813|doi=10.1086/323313|s2cid=154918586}}</ref> [[University of Mississippi]] professor William F. Shughart,<ref name="Shughart">{{Cite journal|last1=Shughart|first1=William F.|last2=Lott|first2=John R.|date=April 1, 1999|title=More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws: Review|journal=Southern Economic Journal|volume=65|issue=4|pages=978–981|doi=10.2307/1061296|jstor=1061296}}</ref> and SUNY economist Florenz Plassmann and University of Adelaide economist John Whitley.<ref name="Plassmann and Whitley">"[http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Plassmann_Whitley.pdf Plassmann and Whitley Stanford Law Review (2003)]" Confirming More Guns, Less Crime, by Florenz Plassmann and John Whitley, 2003, p. 1361</ref>

Referring to the research done on the topic, ''[[The Chronicle of Higher Education]]'' wrote in 2003 that "Mr. Lott's research has convinced his peers of at least one point: No scholars now claim that legalizing concealed weapons causes a major increase in crime."<ref name="CHE">{{Cite journal|last=Glenn |first=David |date=May 9, 2003 |title='More Guns, Less Crime' Thesis Rests on a Flawed Statistical Design, Scholars Argue |journal=[[The Chronicle of Higher Education]] |volume=49 |issue=35 |page=A18 |url= http://chronicle.com/weekly/v49/i35/35a01801.htm |access-date=2007-05-27}}</ref> As Lott critics Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III pointed out, "Lott and Mustard have made an important scholarly contribution in establishing that these laws have not led to the massive bloodbath of death and injury that some of their opponents feared. On the other hand, we find that the statistical evidence that these laws have reduced crime is limited, sporadic, and extraordinarily fragile."<ref name="shootdown" /> A 2008 article in ''[[Econ Journal Watch]]'' surveyed peer-reviewed empirical academic studies, and found that 10 supported the proposition that right-to-carry reduces crime, 8 supported no significant effect and none supported an increase.<ref>[http://econjwatch.org/file_download/234/2008-09-moodymarvell-com.pdf Carlisle E. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, "The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws"], ''Econ Journal Watch'' Vol. 5, Iss. 3 (2008).</ref> The article was rebutted by [[Ian Ayres]] and [[John J. Donohue III|John J. Donohue]] in the same journal in 2009.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://econjwatch.org/articles/yet-another-refutation-of-the-more-guns-less-crime-hypothesis-with-some-help-from-moody-and-marvell|title=Yet Another Refutation of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis—With Some Help From Moody and Marvell · Econ Journal Watch: Law and economics, criminal justice policy, guns and crime|website=econjwatch.org|date=January 2009 |language=en|access-date=2017-09-13}}</ref>

In 2013, Lott founded the nonprofit organization Crime Prevention Research Center to study the relationship between gun laws and crime. As of July 2015, he was also the organization's president.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/07/john-lott-guns-crime-data | title=When the Gun Lobby Tries to Justify Firearms Everywhere, It Turns to This Guy | work=Mother Jones | date=28 July 2015 | access-date=6 February 2016 | author=Lurie, Julia}}</ref> The board of directors for the organization includes guitarist [[Ted Nugent]], conservative talkshow host [[Lars Larson]] and former sheriff [[David Clarke (sheriff)|David Clarke]].<ref name=":2" /> In 2020, Lott left the organization to take a position in the Trump administration.<ref name=":2" />