Editing Holocene extinction (section)

=== Extinction rate ===
The contemporary rate of extinction is estimated at 100 to 1,000 times higher than the natural [[background extinction rate]]—the typical rate of species loss through natural evolutionary processes.<ref name="Pimm-1995">{{cite journal |last1=Pimm |first1=Stuart L. |last2=Russell |first2=Gareth J. |last3=Gittleman |first3=John L. |last4=Brooks |first4=Thomas M. |year=1995 |title=The Future of Biodiversity |journal=Science |volume=269 |issue=5222 |pages=347–350 |bibcode=1995Sci...269..347P |doi=10.1126/science.269.5222.347 |pmid=17841251 |s2cid=35154695}}</ref><ref name="Teyssèdre-2004" /><ref name="De Vos"/><ref name="lawton95">{{cite journal |author1=Lawton, J. H. |author2=May, R. M. |year=1995 |title=Extinction Rates |journal=Journal of Evolutionary Biology |volume=9 |pages=124–126 |doi=10.1046/j.1420-9101.1996.t01-1-9010124.x |doi-access=free}}</ref> One estimation suggested the rate could be as high as 10,000 times the [[background extinction rate]], though this figure remains controversial.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Lawton |first1=J. H. |last2=May |first2=R. M. |year=1995 |title=Extinction Rates |journal=Journal of Evolutionary Biology |volume=9 |issue=1 |pages=124–126 |doi=10.1046/j.1420-9101.1996.t01-1-9010124.x |doi-access=free}}</ref> [[Theoretical ecologist]] [[Stuart Pimm]] has noted that the extinction rate for plants alone is 100 times higher than normal.<ref>{{cite news |last=Li |first=S. |year=2012 |title=Has Plant Life Reached Its Limits? |newspaper=New York Times |url=http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/has-plant-life-reached-its-limits/ |access-date=10 February 2018 |archive-date=1 October 2019 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191001025602/https://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/20/has-plant-life-reached-its-limits/ |url-status=live }}</ref>

While some argue that the current extinction rates have not yet reached the catastrophic levels of past mass extinctions,<ref>{{cite news |last=Woodward |first=Aylin |date=April 8, 2019 |title=So many animals are going extinct that it could take Earth 10 million years to recover |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/mass-extinction-earth-take-10-million-years-recover-2019-4 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191008072528/https://www.businessinsider.com/mass-extinction-earth-take-10-million-years-recover-2019-4 |archive-date=October 8, 2019 |access-date=April 9, 2019 |work=Business Insider |quote="Lowery doesn't think we've strayed into Sixth Extinction territory yet. But he and Fraass agree that squabbling over what constitutes that distinction is beside the point. "We have to work to save biodiversity before it's gone. That's the important takeaway here," Lowery said. There is consensus on one aspect of the extinction trend, however: Homo sapiens are to blame. According to a 2014 study, current extinction rates are 1,000 times higher than they would be if humans weren't around."}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Brannen |first=Peter |date=13 June 2017 |title=Earth Is Not in the Midst of a Sixth Mass Extinction |url=https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/06/the-ends-of-the-world/529545/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201209100725/https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/06/the-ends-of-the-world/529545/ |archive-date=9 December 2020 |access-date=28 November 2020 |website=The Atlantic |quote=Many of those making facile comparisons between the current situation and past mass extinctions don’t have a clue about the difference in the nature of the data, much less how truly awful the mass extinctions recorded in the marine fossil record actually were.}}</ref> [[Anthony David Barnosky|Barnosky]] et al. (2011) and Hull et al. (2015) point out that extinction rates during past mass extinctions cannot be fully determined due to gaps in the fossil record.<ref name="Barnosky2011" /><ref name="Hull et al. 2015">{{cite journal |last1=Hull |first1=Pincelli M. |last2=Darroch |first2=Simon A. F. |last3=Erwin |first3=Douglas H. |date=17 December 2015 |title=Rarity in mass extinctions and the future of ecosystems |journal=Nature |volume=528 |issue=7582 |pages=345–351 |bibcode=2015Natur.528..345H |doi=10.1038/nature16160 |pmid=26672552 |s2cid=4464936}}</ref> However, they agree that the ongoing biodiversity loss is nonetheless unprecedented.<ref name="Barnosky2011" /> Estimates of species lost per year vary widely—from 1.5 to 40,000 species—but all indicate that human activity is driving this crisis.<ref name="Briggs 2017">{{cite journal |last1=Briggs |first1=John C. |date=12 May 2017 |title=Emergence of a sixth mass extinction? |url=https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/article/122/2/243/3869095 |url-status=live |journal=Biological Journal of the Linnean Society |volume=122 |issue=2 |pages=243–248 |doi=10.1093/biolinnean/blx063 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210822182609/https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/article/122/2/243/3869095 |archive-date=22 August 2021 |access-date=22 August 2021 |doi-access=free}}</ref>

In ''The Future of Life'' (2002), biologist [[E.O. Wilson|Edward Osborne Wilson]] predicted that, if current trend continues, half of Earth's higher lifeforms could be extinct by 2100. More recent studies further support this view. A 2015 study on Hawaiian snails suggested that up to 7% of Earth's species may already be extinct.<ref name="Phys.org-2015">{{cite web |year=2015 |title=Research shows catastrophic invertebrate extinction in Hawai'i and globally |url=http://phys.org/news/2015-08-catastrophic-invertebrate-extinction-hawaii-globally.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191230202726/http://phys.org/news/2015-08-catastrophic-invertebrate-extinction-hawaii-globally.html |archive-date=30 December 2019 |access-date=10 February 2018 |publisher=Phys.org}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Régnier |first1=Claire |last2=Achaz |first2=Guillaume |last3=Lambert |first3=Amaury |last4=Cowie |first4=Robert H. |last5=Bouchet |first5=Philippe |last6=Fontaine |first6=Benoît |date=23 June 2015 |title=Mass extinction in poorly known taxa |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |volume=112 |issue=25 |pages=7761–7766 |bibcode=2015PNAS..112.7761R |doi=10.1073/pnas.1502350112 |pmc=4485135 |pmid=26056308 |doi-access=free}}</ref> A 2021 study also found that only around 3% of the planet's terrestrial surface remains ecologically and [[fauna]]lly intact—areas still with healthy populations of native species and minimal human footprint.<ref>{{cite news|last=Carrington|first=Damian|date=April 15, 2021|title=Just 3% of world's ecosystems remain intact, study suggests|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/15/just-3-of-worlds-ecosystems-remain-intact-study-suggests|work=The Guardian|location=|access-date=April 16, 2021|archive-date=November 24, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211124133706/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/15/just-3-of-worlds-ecosystems-remain-intact-study-suggests|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Plumptre|first1=Andrew J.|last2=Baisero|first2=Daniele|display-authors=etal.|date=2021|title=Where Might We Find Ecologically Intact Communities?|journal=Frontiers in Forests and Global Change|volume=4|issue= |pages= |doi=10.3389/ffgc.2021.626635|bibcode=2021FrFGC...4.6635P |doi-access=free|hdl=10261/242175|hdl-access=free}}</ref> A 2022 study suggests that if global warming continues, between 13% and 27% of terrestrial vertebrate species could be driven to extinction by 2100, with [[Habitat destruction|habitat destructions]] and [[Coextinction|co-extinctions]] accounting for the rest.<ref>{{cite news |last=Newcomb |first=Tim |date=January 18, 2023 |title=Supercomputer Says 27% of Life on Earth Will Be Dead by the End of This Century |url=https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a42556557/supercomputer-mass-extinction-predictions/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230118225320/https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/environment/a42556557/supercomputer-mass-extinction-predictions/ |archive-date=January 18, 2023 |access-date=January 19, 2023 |work=[[Popular Mechanics]] |location=}}</ref><ref name="Strona" /><ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Murali |first1=Gopal |last2=Iwamura |first2=Takuya Iwamura |last3=Meiri |first3=Shai |last4=Roll |first4=Uri |date=January 18, 2023 |title=Future temperature extremes threaten land vertebrates |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05606-z |url-status=live |journal=Nature |language=en |volume=615 |issue=7952 |pages=461–467 |bibcode=2023Natur.615..461M |doi=10.1038/s41586-022-05606-z |pmid=36653454 |s2cid=255974196 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230512155513/https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05606-z |archive-date=May 12, 2023 |access-date=June 21, 2023}}</ref>

The 2019 ''[[Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services]]'', published by the United Nations [[Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services|IPBES]], estimated that about one million species are currently at risk of extinction within decades due to human activities.<ref>{{cite news |last=Plumer |first=Brad |date=May 6, 2019 |title=Humans Are Speeding Extinction and Altering the Natural World at an 'Unprecedented' Pace |work=[[The New York Times]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/climate/biodiversity-extinction-united-nations.html |url-status=live |url-access=subscription |access-date=May 6, 2019 |archive-url=https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220103/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/06/climate/biodiversity-extinction-united-nations.html |archive-date=2022-01-03 |quote=“Human actions threaten more species with global extinction now than ever before,” the report concludes, estimating that “around 1 million species already face extinction, many within decades, unless action is taken.”}}{{cbignore}}</ref><ref>{{cite press release |date=May 6, 2019 |title=Media Release: Nature's Dangerous Decline 'Unprecedented'; Species Extinction Rates 'Accelerating' |work=[[Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services]] |url=https://www.ipbes.net/media-release-nature%e2%80%99s-dangerous-decline-%e2%80%98unprecedented%e2%80%99-species-extinction-rates-%e2%80%98accelerating%e2%80%99 |access-date=May 6, 2019 |archive-date=June 21, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230621205520/https://www.ipbes.net/media-release-nature%E2%80%99s-dangerous-decline-%E2%80%98unprecedented%E2%80%99-species-extinction-rates-%E2%80%98accelerating%E2%80%99 |url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |date=May 6, 2019 |title=World is 'on notice' as major UN report shows one million species face extinction |work=UN News |url=https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/05/1037941 |access-date=January 8, 2020 |archive-date=March 2, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200302155207/https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/05/1037941 |url-status=live }}</ref> Organized human existence is jeopardised by increasingly rapid destruction of the systems that support life on Earth, according to the report, the result of one of the most comprehensive studies of the health of the planet ever conducted.<ref name="Watts2019" />  Moreover, the 2021 ''Economics of Biodiversity'' review, published by the UK government, asserts that "biodiversity is declining faster than at any time in human history."<ref>{{cite web |last=Dasgupta |first=Partha |author-link=Partha Dasgupta |date=2021 |title=The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review Headline Messages |publisher=UK government |page=1 |url=https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957629/Dasgupta_Review_-_Headline_Messages.pdf |access-date=December 15, 2021 |quote=Biodiversity is declining faster than at any time in human history. Current extinction rates, for example, are around 100 to 1,000 times higher than the baseline rate, and they are increasing. |archive-date=May 20, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220520070152/https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957629/Dasgupta_Review_-_Headline_Messages.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Carrington |first=Damian |date=February 2, 2021 |title=Economics of biodiversity review: what are the recommendations? |work=The Guardian |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/02/economics-of-biodiversity-review-what-are-the-recommendations |access-date=15 December 2021 |archive-date=24 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220524182314/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/02/economics-of-biodiversity-review-what-are-the-recommendations |url-status=live }}</ref> According to a 2022 study published in ''[[Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment]]'', a survey of more than 3,000 experts says that the extent of the mass extinction might be greater than previously thought, and estimates that roughly 30% of species "have been globally threatened or driven extinct since the year 1500."<ref>{{cite news|last=Melillo|first=Gianna|date=July 19, 2022|title=Threat of global extinction may be greater than previously thought, study finds|work=The Hill|url=https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/environment/3565945-threat-of-global-extinction-may-be-greater-than-previously-thought-study-finds/|access-date=July 20, 2022|archive-date=July 19, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220719180734/https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/environment/3565945-threat-of-global-extinction-may-be-greater-than-previously-thought-study-finds/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Isbell |first1=Forest |last2=Balvanera|first2=Patricia|display-authors=etal.|date=2022 |title=Expert perspectives on global biodiversity loss and its drivers and impacts on people|journal=Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment |volume=21|issue=2|pages=94–103|doi=10.1002/fee.2536|s2cid=250659953|doi-access=free|hdl=10852/101242|hdl-access=free}}</ref> In a 2022 report, IPBES listed unsustainable fishing, hunting, and [[Overlogging|logging]] as some of the primary drivers of the global extinction crisis.<ref>{{cite news|last=Briggs|first=Helen|date=July 8, 2022|title=Unsustainable logging, fishing and hunting 'driving extinction'|work=BBC|url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62094405|access-date=August 8, 2022|archive-date=August 1, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220801105751/https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62094405|url-status=live}}</ref> 

A 2023 study published in ''[[PLOS One]]'' shows that around two million species are threatened with extinction, double the estimate put forward in the 2019 IPBES report.<ref>{{cite news |last=Weston|first=Phoebe |date=November 8, 2023 |title=Number of species at risk of extinction doubles to 2 million, says study|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/species-at-risk-extinction-doubles-to-2-million-aoe|work=The Guardian |location= |access-date=November 9, 2023}}</ref> According to a 2023 study published in ''[[PNAS]]'', at least 73 [[genera]] of animals have gone extinct since 1500. If humans had never existed, the study estimates it would have taken 18,000 years for the same genera to have disappeared naturally, leading the authors to conclude that "the current generic extinction rates are 35 times higher than expected background rates prevailing in the last million years under the absence of human impacts" and that human civilization is causing the "rapid mutilation of the tree of life."<ref>{{cite news|last=Rozsa|first=Matthew|date=September 19, 2023|title=Experts warn of a "biological holocaust" as human-caused extinction "mutilates" the tree of life|url=https://www.salon.com/2023/09/19/experts-warn-of-a-biological-holocaust-as-human-caused-extinction-mutilates-the-tree-of-life/|work=[[Salon.com]]|location=|access-date=September 19, 2023|archive-date=September 19, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230919114125/https://www.salon.com/2023/09/19/experts-warn-of-a-biological-holocaust-as-human-caused-extinction-mutilates-the-tree-of-life/|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1= Ceballos|first1=Gerardo|last2=Ehrlich|first2=Paul R.|date=2023 |title=Mutilation of the tree of life via mass extinction of animal genera|url= |journal=[[Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America]]|volume=120 |issue=39 |pages=e2306987120|doi=10.1073/pnas.2306987120|doi-access=free |pmid=37722053 |pmc=10523489 |bibcode=2023PNAS..12006987C |access-date=}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|last=Greenfield|first=Patrick|date=September 19, 2023|title='Mutilating the tree of life': Wildlife loss accelerating, scientists warn|url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/19/mutilating-the-tree-of-life-wildlife-loss-accelerating-scientists-warn|work=The Guardian|location=|access-date=September 19, 2023|archive-date=September 25, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230925213112/https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/sep/19/mutilating-the-tree-of-life-wildlife-loss-accelerating-scientists-warn|url-status=live}}</ref>