Editing Economic growth (section)

=== Resource constraint ===
{{See also|Energy returned on energy invested|Substitute good|Mining|Peak minerals|Steady-state economy#Present situation: Exceeding global limits to growth}}
Many earlier predictions of resource depletion, such as [[Thomas Malthus]]' 1798 predictions about approaching famines in Europe, ''[[The Population Bomb]]'',<ref name="oswego.edu">{{cite web |url=http://www.oswego.edu/~edunne/200ch17.html |title=Chapter 17: Growth and Productivity-The Long-Run Possibilities |publisher=Oswego.edu |date=1999-06-10 |access-date=2010-12-22 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101218063522/http://www.oswego.edu/~edunne/200ch17.html |archive-date=2010-12-18 }}</ref><ref name="reason.com">{{cite web|first=Ronald | last = Bailey |url=http://www.reason.com/news/show/34758.html |title=Science and Public Policy |publisher=Reason.com |date=2004-02-04 |access-date=2010-12-22}}</ref> and the [[Simon–Ehrlich wager]] (1980)<ref name="wired.com">{{cite magazine|url=https://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html |title=The Doomslayer |magazine=Wired |first=Ed |last=Regis |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080516050031/http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.02/ffsimon_pr.html |archive-date=2008-05-16 }}</ref> have not materialized. Diminished production of most resources has not occurred so far, one reason being that advancements in technology and science have allowed some previously unavailable resources to be produced.<ref name="wired.com" /> In some cases, [[Substitute good|substitution]] of more abundant materials, such as plastics for cast metals, lowered growth of usage for some metals. In the case of the limited resource of land, famine was relieved firstly by the revolution in transportation caused by railroads and steam ships, and later by the [[Green Revolution]] and chemical fertilizers, especially the [[Haber process]] for ammonia synthesis.<ref name="Wells1891">{{cite book
|title=Recent Economic Changes and Their Effect on Production and Distribution of Wealth and Well-Being of Society
|last=Wells
|first=David A.
|year=1891 |publisher= D. Appleton and Co.|location= New York|isbn= 978-0-543-72474-8 |url= https://archive.org/details/recenteconomicc01wellgoog }}Opening line of the Preface.</ref><ref>{{cite book |title= Enriching the Earth: Fritz Haber, Carl Bosch, and the Transformation of World Food Production
|last=Smil
|first=Vaclav |year=2004
|publisher= MIT Press
|isbn= 978-0-262-69313-4
}}</ref>

Resource quality is composed of a variety of factors including ore grades, location, altitude above or below sea level, proximity to railroads, highways, water supply and climate. These factors affect the capital and operating cost of extracting resources. In the case of minerals, lower grades of mineral resources are being extracted, requiring higher inputs of capital and energy for both extraction and processing. [[Copper]] ore grades have declined significantly over the last century.<ref>{{cite book |title= Energy and Resource Quality: The ecology of the Economic Process
|last1=Hall |first1=Charles A.S. 
|last2= Cleveland |first2=Cutler J.
|last3=Kaufmann |first3=Robert
|year=1992 |publisher= University Press of Colorado |location= Niwot, Colorado }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web
 | last = Lyon
 | first =Christioher
 | title = Declining South America copper ore grades require ingenuity
|publisher=Mining Weekly
 | date = July 3, 2015
 | url = http://www.miningweekly.com/article/declining-copper-ore-grades-require-ingenuity-2015-07-03/rep_id:3650
}}</ref> Another example is [[natural gas]] from shale and other low permeability rock, whose extraction requires much higher inputs of energy, capital, and materials than conventional gas in previous decades. Offshore oil and gas have exponentially increased cost as water depth increases.

Some physical scientists like Sanyam Mittal regard continuous economic [[Exponential growth#Limitations of models|growth]] as unsustainable.<ref name="Bartlett 2013">{{cite web |url=http://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html |title=Arithmetic, Population and Energy |last=Bartlett |first=Albert Allen |author-link=Albert Allen Bartlett |publisher=albartlett.org |date=2013 |access-date=2014-07-22 |quote=You cannot sustain population growth and / or growth in the rates of consumption of resources.}}</ref><ref name="Murphy 2011">{{cite web |url=http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ |title=Galactic-Scale Energy |last=Murphy |first=Tom |work=Do the Math |date=2011-07-12 |access-date=2014-07-22 |quote=continued growth in energy use becomes physically impossible within conceivable timeframes ... all economic growth must similarly end. }}</ref> Several factors may constrain economic growth – for example: finite, peaked, or [[resource depletion|depleted resources]].

In 1972, ''[[The Limits to Growth]]'' study modeled limitations to infinite growth; originally ridiculed,<ref name="oswego.edu" /><ref name="reason.com" /><ref name="aei.org">{{cite web |last=Hayward |first=Steven F. |url=http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.21588/pub_detail.asp |title=That Old Time Religion |publisher=AEI |access-date=2010-12-22 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090418014446/http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.21588/pub_detail.asp |archive-date=2009-04-18 }}</ref> some of the predicted trends have materialized, raising concerns of an impending [[societal collapse|collapse]] or decline due to resource constraints.<ref name="Turner 2010">{{cite journal |last=Turner |first=Graham |title=A Comparison of the Limits of Growth with Thirty Years of Reality |journal=Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion |issn=1834-5638 |series=CSIRO Working Paper Series|date=June 2008 |url=http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf|access-date=2010-10-20|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20101128151523/http://www.csiro.au/files/files/plje.pdf |archive-date=2010-11-28 |url-status=dead}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |last1=Hall |first1=C. |last2=Day |first2=J. |year=2009 |title=Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil |journal=American Scientist |volume=97 |issue=3| pages=230–238 |doi=10.1511/2009.78.230}}</ref><ref>{{cite book
 | last = Meadows
 | first = D H
| author2 =Randers
 | title = Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
 | publisher =Chelsea Green Publishing
| year =2004
| isbn =978-1-931498-58-6
}}</ref>

[[Malthusianism|''Malthusians'']] such as [[William R. Catton, Jr.]] are skeptical of technological advances that improve resource availability. Such advances and increases in efficiency, they suggest, merely accelerate the drawing down of finite resources. Catton claims that increasing rates of resource extraction are "...stealing ravenously from the future".<ref>"Overshoot" by William Catton, p. 3 [1980]</ref>