Editing Conspiracy theory (section)

==Viability ==
As evidence that undermines an alleged conspiracy grows, the number of alleged conspirators also grows in the minds of conspiracy theorists. This is because of an assumption that the alleged conspirators often have competing interests. For example, if Republican President [[George W. Bush]] is allegedly responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the Democratic party did not pursue exposing this alleged plot, that must mean that both the Democratic and Republican parties are conspirators in the alleged plot. It also assumes that the alleged conspirators are so competent that they can fool the entire world, but so incompetent that even the unskilled conspiracy theorists can find mistakes they make that prove the fraud. At some point, the number of alleged conspirators, combined with the contradictions within the alleged conspirators' interests and competence, becomes so great that maintaining the theory becomes an obvious exercise in absurdity.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Novella |first1=Steven |last2=Novella |first2=Bob |last3=Santa Maria |first3=Cara |last4=Novella |first4=Jay |last5=Bernstein |first5=Evan |title=The skeptics' guide to the universe: how to know what's really real in a world increasingly full of fake |date=2018 |publisher=Grand Central Publishing |location=New York |isbn=978-1538760536 |pages=206–207 |edition=First}}</ref>

The physicist [[David Robert Grimes]] estimated the time it would take for a conspiracy to be exposed based on the number of people involved.<ref name="pbs_plos_one">{{cite web|last1=Barajas|first1=Joshua|title=How many people does it take to keep a conspiracy alive?|url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/math-formula-charts-the-lifespan-of-hoaxes/|website=PBS News Hour|publisher=PBS|access-date=22 July 2016|date=15 February 2016|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171013022744/http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/math-formula-charts-the-lifespan-of-hoaxes/|archive-date=13 October 2017|url-status=live}}</ref><ref name="Grimes_PLOS_ONE">{{cite journal|last1=Grimes|first1=David R|author-link1=David Robert Grimes|title=On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs|journal=PLOS ONE|date=26 January 2016|doi=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905|pmid=26812482|volume=11|issue=1|pmc=4728076|pages=e0147905|bibcode=2016PLoSO..1147905G|doi-access=free}}</ref> His calculations used data from the [[PRISM (surveillance program)|PRISM surveillance program]], the [[Tuskegee syphilis experiment]], and the [[FBI Laboratory#Controversy|FBI forensic scandal]]. Grimes estimated that:
* A [[Moon landing conspiracy theories|Moon landing hoax]] would require the involvement of 411,000 people and would be exposed within 3.68 years;
* [[Global warming conspiracy theory|Climate-change fraud]] would require a minimum of 29,083 people (published climate scientists only) and would be exposed within 26.77 years, or up to 405,000 people, in which case it would be exposed within 3.70 years;
* A vaccination conspiracy would require a minimum of 22,000 people (without drug companies) and would be exposed within at least 3.15 years and at most 34.78 years depending on the number involved;
* A conspiracy to [[Big Pharma conspiracy theory|suppress a cure for cancer]] would require 714,000 people and would be exposed within 3.17 years.
Grimes's study did not consider exposure by sources outside of the alleged conspiracy. It only considered exposure from within the alleged conspiracy through whistleblowers or through incompetence.<ref>Novella, Steven, et al. ''The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe: How to Know What's Really Real in a World Increasingly Full of Fake''. Grand Central Publishing, 2018. pp. 209–210.</ref> Subsequent comments on the [[PubPeer]] website<ref>{{Cite web|title=On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs|url=https://pubpeer.com/publications/48DA2B5CAAD0374925C844B5377DF1|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240322070112/https://pubpeer.com/publications/48DA2B5CAAD0374925C844B5377DF1|archive-date=2024-03-22|website=PubPeer}}</ref> point out that these calculations must exclude successful conspiracies since, by definition, we don't know about them, and are wrong by an order of magnitude about [[Bletchley Park]], which remained a secret far longer than Grimes' calculations predicted.