Editing Ice (section)

===Predictions===

[[File:Wunderling_2020_regional_impact.jpg|thumb|Potential regional warming caused by the loss of all land ice outside of East Antarctica, and by the disappearance of Arctic sea ice every year starting from June.<ref name="Wunderling2020" /> While plausible, consistent sea ice loss would likely require relatively high warming,<ref name="Sigmond2018" /> and the loss of all ice in Greenland would require multiple millennia.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="ArmstrongMcKayExplainer" />]]

In the future, the [[Arctic Ocean]] is likely to lose effectively all of its sea ice during at least some Septembers (the end of the ice melting season), although some of the ice would refreeze during the winter. I.e. an ice-free September is likely to occur once in every 40 years if global warming is at {{convert|1.5|C-change|F-change}}, but would occur once in every 8 years at {{convert|2|C-change|F-change}} and once in every 1.5 years at {{convert|3|C-change|F-change}}.<ref name="Sigmond2018">{{Cite journal |last1=Sigmond |first1=Michael |last2=Fyfe  |first2=John C. |last3=Swart  |first3=Neil C. |date=2 April 2018 |title=Ice-free Arctic projections under the Paris Agreement |url=https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0124-y.epdf?sharing_token=s5CzjtDj8gf0ZmN6CCHGztRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PLVuAXOp2dJlBdNTJtKWqWAUYJ9Ns6JXBlxiHaipJXlrKpbiBcmkhRc42ypYk5a3aeceQ5dF5hV39PYKz05y5seLV8NH9jDQsSxYOgWrLL-CjbZkxrUf6gYwBnx-vAhRL3KTUq_7I1sz5MHuQESHzcuFa8mIqycanI0sYAgJoCzHIjO-WCVh51qA0aONgHJ5s%3D&tracking_referrer=interactive.carbonbrief.org |journal=Nature Climate Change |language=en |volume=2 |issue=5 |pages=404–408 |doi=10.1038/s41558-018-0124-y|bibcode=2018NatCC...8..404S |s2cid=90444686 }}</ref> This would affect the regional and global climate due to the [[ice-albedo feedback]]. Because ice is highly reflective of solar energy, persistent sea ice cover lowers local temperatures. Once that ice cover melts, the darker ocean waters begin to absorb more heat, which also helps to melt the remaining ice.<ref name="Dai2019">{{Cite journal |last1=Dai |first1=Aiguo |last2=Luo |first2=Dehai |last3=Song |first3=Mirong |last4=Liu |first4=Jiping |date=10 January 2019 |title=Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing {{CO2}} |journal=Nature Communications |language=en |volume=10 |issue=1 |page=121 |doi=10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9 |pmid=30631051 |pmc=6328634 |bibcode=2019NatCo..10..121D }}</ref>

Global losses of sea ice between 1992 and 2018, almost all of them in the Arctic, have already had the same impact as 10% of [[greenhouse gas]] emissions over the same period.<ref name="Riihelä2021">{{Cite journal |last1=Riihelä |first1=Aku |last2=Bright |first2=Ryan M. |last3=Anttila |first3=Kati |date=28 October 2021 |title=Recent strengthening of snow and ice albedo feedback driven by Antarctic sea-ice loss |journal=Nature Geoscience |language=en |volume=14 |issue=11 |pages=832–836 |doi=10.1038/s41561-021-00841-x |bibcode=2021NatGe..14..832R |hdl=11250/2830682 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> If all the Arctic sea ice was gone every year between June and September ([[polar day]], when the Sun is constantly shining), temperatures in the Arctic would increase by over {{convert|1.5|C-change|F-change}}, while the global temperatures would increase by around {{convert|0.19|C-change|F-change}}.<ref name="Wunderling2020">{{Cite journal |last1=Wunderling |first1=Nico |last2=Willeit |first2=Matteo |last3=Donges |first3=Jonathan F. |last4=Winkelmann |first4=Ricarda |date=27 October 2020 |title=Global warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice |journal=Nature Communications |language=en |volume=10 |issue=1 |page=5177 |doi=10.1038/s41467-020-18934-3 |pmid=33110092 |pmc=7591863 |bibcode=2020NatCo..11.5177W }}</ref>

[[File:Höning 2023 GIS thresholds.jpg|thumb|upright=1.2|Possible equilibrium states of the Greenland ice sheet in response to different equilibrium carbon dioxide concentrations in [[parts per million]]. Second and third states would result in {{convert|1.8|m|ft|0|abbr=on}} and {{convert|2.4|m|ft|0|abbr=on}} of sea level rise, while the fourth state is equivalent to {{convert|6.9|m|ft|0|abbr=on}}.<ref name="Höning2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Höning |first1=Dennis |last2=Willeit |first2=Matteo |last3=Calov |first3=Reinhard |last4=Klemann |first4=Volker |last5=Bagge |first5=Meike |last6=Ganopolski |first6=Andrey |date=27 March 2023 |title=Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions |journal=Geophysical Research Letters |volume=50 |issue=6 |page=e2022GL101827 |doi=10.1029/2022GL101827 |s2cid=257774870}}</ref>]]

By 2100, at least a quarter of mountain glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica would melt,<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Rounce |first1=David R. |last2=Hock |first2=Regine |last3=Maussion |first3=Fabien |last4=Hugonnet |first4=Romain |last5=Kochtitzky |first5=William |last6=Huss |first6=Matthias |last7=Berthier|first7=Etienne |last8=Brinkerhoff |first8=Douglas |last9=Compagno |first9=Loris |last10=Copland |first10=Luke |last11=Farinotti |first11=Daniel |last12=Menounos |first12=Brian |last13=McNabb |first13=Robert W. |date=5 January 2023 |title=Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo1324 |journal=Science |language=en |volume=79 |issue=6627 |pages=78–83 |doi=10.1126/science.abo1324 |pmid=36603094 |bibcode=2023Sci...379...78R |s2cid=255441012 |hdl=10852/108771 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> and effectively all ice caps on non-polar mountains are likely to be lost around 200 years after global warming reaches {{convert|2|C-change|F-change}}.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="ArmstrongMcKayExplainer" /> The West Antarctic ice sheet is highly vulnerable and will likely disappear even if the warming does not progress further,<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.science.org/content/article/discovery-recent-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse-raises-fears-new-global-flood|title=Discovery of recent Antarctic ice sheet collapse raises fears of a new global flood|last=Voosen|first=Paul|date=2018-12-18|website=Science|language=en|access-date=2018-12-28}}</ref><ref name="Carlson2018">{{Cite conference |last1=Carlson |first1=Anders E |last2=Walczak |first2=Maureen H |last3=Beard |first3=Brian L |last4=Laffin |first4=Matthew K |last5=Stoner |first5=Joseph S |last6=Hatfield |first6=Robert G |date=10 December 2018 |title=Absence of the West Antarctic ice sheet during the last interglaciation |url=https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm18/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/421418  |conference=American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting }}</ref><ref name="Naughten2023">{{cite journal |last1=A. Naughten |first1=Kaitlin |last2=R. Holland |first2=Paul |last3=De Rydt |first3=Jan|title=Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century |journal=Nature Climate Change |date=23 October 2023 |volume=13 |issue=11 |pages=1222–1228 |doi=10.1038/s41558-023-01818-x |s2cid=264476246 |doi-access=free |bibcode=2023NatCC..13.1222N }}</ref><ref name="Lau2023">{{Cite journal |last1=Lau |first1=Sally C. Y. |last2=Wilson |first2=Nerida G. |last3=Golledge |first3=Nicholas R.  |last4=Naish |first4=Tim R. |last5=Watts |first5=Phillip C. |last6=Silva |first6=Catarina N. S. |last7=Cooke |first7=Ira R. |last8=Allcock |first8=A. Louise |last9=Mark |first9=Felix C. |last10=Linse |first10=Katrin |date=21 December 2023 |title=Genomic evidence for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse during the Last Interglacial |journal=Science |language=en |volume=382 |issue=6677 |pages=1384–1389 |doi=10.1126/science.ade0664 |pmid=38127761 |bibcode=2023Sci...382.1384L |s2cid=266436146 |url=https://epic.awi.de/id/eprint/58369/1/science.ade0664%281%29.pdf }}</ref> although it could take around 2,000 years before its loss is complete.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022">{{Cite journal |last1=Armstrong McKay |first1=David|last2=Abrams |first2=Jesse |last3=Winkelmann |first3=Ricarda |last4=Sakschewski |first4=Boris |last5=Loriani |first5=Sina |last6=Fetzer |first6=Ingo|last7=Cornell|first7=Sarah |last8=Rockström |first8=Johan |last9=Staal |first9=Arie |last10=Lenton |first10=Timothy |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points |url=https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950 |journal=Science |language=en |volume=377 |issue=6611 |pages=eabn7950 |doi=10.1126/science.abn7950 |pmid=36074831 |hdl=10871/131584 |s2cid=252161375 |issn=0036-8075|hdl-access=free }}</ref><ref name="ArmstrongMcKayExplainer">{{Cite web |last=Armstrong McKay |first=David |date=9 September 2022 |title=Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points – paper explainer |url=https://climatetippingpoints.info/2022/09/09/climate-tipping-points-reassessment-explainer/ |access-date=2 October 2022 |website=climatetippingpoints.info |language=en}}</ref> The Greenland ice sheet will most likely be lost with the sustained warming between {{convert|1.7|C-change|F-change}} and {{convert|2.3|C-change|F-change}},<ref name="Bochow2023">{{cite journal |last1=Bochow |first1=Nils |last2=Poltronieri |first2=Anna |last3=Robinson |first3=Alexander |last4=Montoya |first4=Marisa |last5=Rypdal |first5=Martin |last6=Boers |first6=Niklas |date=18 October 2023 |title=Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet |journal=Nature |volume=622 |issue=7983 |pages=528–536 |bibcode=2023Natur.622..528B |doi=10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9 |pmc=10584691 |pmid=37853149}}</ref> although its total loss requires around 10,000 years.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="ArmstrongMcKayExplainer" /> Finally, the [[East Antarctic ice sheet]] will take at least 10,000 years to melt entirely, which requires a warming of between {{convert|5|C-change|F-change}} and {{convert|10|C-change|F-change}}.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="ArmstrongMcKayExplainer" />

If all the ice on Earth melted, it would result in about {{Convert|70|m|ftin|abbr=on}} of sea level rise,<ref>{{cite web |title=How would sea level change if all glaciers melted? |url=https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-would-sea-level-change-if-all-glaciers-melted |website=United States Geological Survey |date=23 September 2021 |access-date=15 January 2024 }}</ref> with some {{Convert|53.3|m|ftin|abbr=on}} coming from East Antarctica.<ref name="Fretwell2013">{{cite journal |last1=Fretwell |first1=P. |last2=Pritchard |first2=H. D. |last3=Vaughan |first3=D. G. |last4=Bamber |first4=J. L. |last5=Barrand |first5=N. E. |last6=Bell |first6=R. |last7=Bianchi |first7=C. |last8=Bingham |first8=R. G. |last9=Blankenship |first9=D. D. |last10=Casassa |first10=G. |last11=Catania |first11=G. |last12=Callens |first12=D. |last13=Conway |first13=H. |last14=Cook |first14=A. J. |last15=Corr |first15=H. F. J. |last16=Damaske |first16=D. |last17=Damm |first17=V. |last18=Ferraccioli |first18=F. |last19=Forsberg |first19=R. |last20=Fujita |first20=S. |last21=Gim |first21=Y. |last22=Gogineni |first22=P. |last23=Griggs |first23=J. A. |last24=Hindmarsh |first24=R. C. A. |last25=Holmlund |first25=P. |last26=Holt |first26=J. W. |last27=Jacobel |first27=R. W. |last28=Jenkins |first28=A. |last29=Jokat |first29=W. |last30=Jordan |first30=T. |last31=King |first31=E. C. |last32=Kohler |first32=J. |last33=Krabill |first33=W. |last34=Riger-Kusk |first34=M. |last35=Langley |first35=K. A. |last36=Leitchenkov |first36=G. |last37=Leuschen |first37=C. |last38=Luyendyk |first38=B. P. |last39=Matsuoka |first39=K. |last40=Mouginot |first40=J. |last41=Nitsche |first41=F. O. |last42=Nogi |first42=Y. |last43=Nost |first43=O. A. |last44=Popov |first44=S. V. |last45=Rignot |first45=E. |last46=Rippin |first46=D. M. |last47=Rivera |first47=A. |last48=Roberts |first48=J. |last49=Ross |first49=N. |last50=Siegert |first50=M. J. |last51=Smith |first51=A. M. |last52=Steinhage |first52=D. |last53=Studinger |first53=M. |last54=Sun |first54=B. |last55=Tinto |first55=B. K. |last56=Welch |first56=B. C. |last57=Wilson |first57=D. |last58=Young |first58=D. A. |last59=Xiangbin |first59=C. |last60=Zirizzotti |first60=A. |title=Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica |journal=The Cryosphere |date=28 February 2013 |volume=7 |issue=1 |pages=375–393 |doi=10.5194/tc-7-375-2013 |bibcode=2013TCry....7..375F |doi-access=free |hdl=1808/18763 |hdl-access=free }}</ref> Due to [[isostatic rebound]], the ice-free land would eventually become {{Convert|301|m|ftin|abbr=on}} higher in Greenland and {{Convert|494|m|ftin|abbr=on}} in Antarctica, on average. Areas in the center of each landmass would become up to {{Convert|783|m|ftin|abbr=on}} and {{Convert|936|m|ftin|abbr=on}} higher, respectively.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Paxman |first1=Guy J. G. |last2=Austermann |first2=Jacqueline |last3=Hollyday |first3=Andrew |date=6 July 2022 |title=Total isostatic response to the complete unloading of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets |journal=Scientific Reports |volume=12 |issue=1 |page=11399 |doi=10.1038/s41598-022-15440-y |pmid=35794143 |pmc=9259639 |bibcode=2022NatSR..1211399P }}</ref> The impact on global temperatures from losing West Antartica, mountain glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet is estimated at {{convert|0.05|C-change|F-change}}, {{convert|0.08|C-change|F-change}} and {{convert|0.13|C-change|F-change}}, respectively,<ref name="Wunderling2020" /> while the lack of the East Antarctic ice sheet would increase the temperatures by {{convert|0.6|C-change|F-change}}.<ref name="ArmstrongMcKay2022" /><ref name="ArmstrongMcKayExplainer" />