Editing World War III (section)

== Current potential flashpoints ==
===Russian invasion of Ukraine: 24 February 2022 – present===
{{main|Russian invasion of Ukraine|Nuclear risk during the Russian invasion of Ukraine}}
[[File:Borodianka after Russian bombing, 2022-03-02 (11).jpg|thumb|Buildings destroyed by the Russian [[Bombing of Borodianka]], March 2022]]

On 24 February 2022, Russia's president [[Vladimir Putin]] ordered a full-scale invasion of [[Ukraine]], marking a major escalation of the [[Russo-Ukrainian War]], which began in 2014. The Russian invasion started the largest war in Europe since World War&nbsp;II.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Karmanau |first1=Yuras |last2=Heintz |first2=Jim |last3=Isachenkov |first3=Vladimir |last4=Litvinova |first4=Dasha |others=Photograph by [[Evgeniy Maloletka]] (AP Photo) |date=24 February 2022 |title=Russia presses invasion to outskirts of Ukrainian capital |work=[[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]] |publisher=[[American Broadcasting Company]] |agency=[[Associated Press]] |location=[[Kyiv]] |url=https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-attacks-ukraine-defiant-putin-warns-us-nato-83078619 |url-status=live |access-date=26 February 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220225182137/https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-attacks-ukraine-defiant-putin-warns-us-nato-83078619 |archive-date=25 February 2022 |quote=[a]mounts to the largest ground war in Europe since World War II.}}</ref> Various experts, analysts, and others have described the invasion as heightening the risk of a third world war,<ref>{{cite news |last1=Elliott |first1=Larry |title=Ukraine invasion maybe start of 'third world war', says George Soros |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/24/ukraine-invasion-may-be-start-of-third-world-war-says-george-soros |access-date=25 May 2022 |work=The Guardian |date=24 May 2022 |language=en |archive-date=5 July 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220705182833/https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/24/ukraine-invasion-may-be-start-of-third-world-war-says-george-soros |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-has-world-war-three-already-started-some-security-experts-believe-existential-global-conflict-has-begun-12559039|title=Ukraine invasion: Has World War Three already started? Some security experts believe existential global conflict has begun|publisher=[[Sky News]]|first1=Deborah|last1=Haynes|date=6 March 2022|access-date=6 March 2022|archive-date=6 March 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220306124304/https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-has-world-war-three-already-started-some-security-experts-believe-existential-global-conflict-has-begun-12559039|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.politico.eu/article/fight-ukraine-russia-world-war-risk-real/|title=The fighting is in Ukraine, but risk of World War III is real|publisher=[[Politico]]|first1=David M.|last1=Herszenhorn|date=4 March 2022|access-date=4 March 2022|url-status=live|archive-date=4 March 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220304213411/https://www.politico.eu/article/fight-ukraine-russia-world-war-risk-real/}}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |author1=Skomaskanda, Honderich |author2=Sumi, Holly |date=18 April 2024 |title=Ukraine warns of WW3 ahead of long-stalled Congress aid vote |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68840261 |access-date=19 April 2024 |work=BBC News}}</ref> while others have suggested the contrary.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-isnt-world-war-iii-its-not-even-close|title=Ukraine Isn't World War III. It's Not Even Close.|publisher=[[The Daily Beast]]|first1=Ryan|last1=Faith|date=11 March 2022|access-date=12 March 2022|url-status=live|archive-date=12 March 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220312165320/https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-isnt-world-war-iii-its-not-even-close}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Simhony |first=Limor |title=NATO Intervention in Ukraine Won't Spark World War III |url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/01/nato-intervention-in-ukraine-wont-spark-world-war-iii/ |access-date=2022-10-07 |website=Foreign Policy |language=en-US |archive-date=7 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221007025659/https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/01/nato-intervention-in-ukraine-wont-spark-world-war-iii/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Miller |first=Paul |title=Ukraine Is Not World War III |url=https://thedispatch.com/p/ukraine-is-not-world-war-iii |access-date=2022-10-07 |website=The Dispatch |date=8 March 2022 |archive-date=7 October 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221007025701/https://thedispatch.com/p/ukraine-is-not-world-war-iii |url-status=live }}</ref>

Because of the invasion, at least fifty countries have provided some kind of [[List of military aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War|military aid to Ukraine]], including all [[member states of NATO]].<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia warns of World War III ahead of Western summit on arms to Ukraine |url=https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3175501/ukraine-invasion-russias-foreign-minister-sergey |work=South China Morning Post |date=26 April 2022 |access-date=5 May 2022 |archive-date=5 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220505103450/https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3175501/ukraine-invasion-russias-foreign-minister-sergey |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Biden requests $33 billion for Ukraine fight as Congress passes 'lend-lease' arms authorization |url=https://theweek.com/nancy-pelosi/1013137/nancy-pelosi-meets-with-zelensky-in-kyiv |work=The Week |date=29 April 2022 |access-date=5 May 2022 |archive-date=5 May 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220505103451/https://theweek.com/nancy-pelosi/1013137/nancy-pelosi-meets-with-zelensky-in-kyiv |url-status=live }}</ref> The Russian government has threatened retaliation against countries supplying military aid to Ukraine, and said it meant NATO was waging a "proxy war" against Russia.<ref>{{cite news |title=Russia accuses Nato of 'proxy war' in Ukraine as US hosts crucial defence summit |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/russia-accuses-nato-of-proxy-war-in-ukraine-as-us-hosts-crucial-defence-summit |work=[[The Guardian]] |date=26 April 2022}}</ref> Senior Russian politicians—including president Putin, foreign minister [[Sergey Lavrov]] and [[United Russia]] party leader [[Dmitry Medvedev]]—have made statements widely seen as [[nuclear blackmail]]. They have implied that Russia may use nuclear weapons if certain [[Red lines in the Russo-Ukrainian War|"red lines"]] are crossed, such as helping Ukraine to strike back at mainland Russia.<ref>{{cite news |title=Putin's threat rekindles Cold War fears of nuclear war |publisher=[[PBS]] |url=https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-waves-nuclear-sword-in-confrontation-with-the-west |url-status=live |access-date=27 February 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220227183156/https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-waves-nuclear-sword-in-confrontation-with-the-west |archive-date=27 February 2022 |quote=As for military affairs, even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today's Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. ... Moreover, it has a certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons. In this context, there should be no doubt for anyone that any potential aggressor will face defeat and ominous consequences should it directly attack our country.}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Defiant Putin goes to war in Ukraine with a warning for U.S., NATO |publisher=[[NBC News]] |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-war-warning-us-nato-rcna17497 |url-status=live |access-date=27 February 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220227183152/https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin-war-warning-us-nato-rcna17497 |archive-date=27 February 2022}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Sauer |first=Pjotr |date=2022-09-21 |title=Putin announces partial mobilisation and threatens nuclear retaliation in escalation of Ukraine war |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/putin-announces-partial-mobilisation-in-russia-in-escalation-of-ukraine-war |access-date=2022-09-21 |website=The Guardian |language=en |archive-date=14 January 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230114202406/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/21/putin-announces-partial-mobilisation-in-russia-in-escalation-of-ukraine-war |url-status=live }}</ref> Officials from the United States and NATO, including US president [[Joe Biden]] and NATO secretary general [[Jens Stoltenberg]], have stressed the need to prevent the conflict escalating into a third world war, while also affirming that NATO members will defend each other.<ref>{{cite web |date=28 February 2022 |title=Biden says Americans should not worry about nuclear war after Russian actions |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/us/politics/putin-nuclear-alert-biden-deescalation.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220228011550/https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/us/politics/putin-nuclear-alert-biden-deescalation.html |archive-date=28 February 2022 |access-date=28 February 2022 |website=[[Reuters]] |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Samuels |first1=Brett |date=11 March 2022 |title=Biden: Direct conflict between NATO and Russia would be 'World War III' |url=https://thehill.com/policy/international/597842-biden-direct-conflict-between-nato-and-russia-would-be-world-war-iii |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220325032254/https://thehill.com/policy/international/597842-biden-direct-conflict-between-nato-and-russia-would-be-world-war-iii |archive-date=25 March 2022 |access-date=11 March 2022 |website=The Hill}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last=Khaled |first=Fatma |date=13 March 2022 |title=Russia Hitting NATO Even Accidentally Will Spur 'Full' Response: Sullivan |work=[[Newsweek]] |url=https://www.newsweek.com/russia-hitting-nato-even-accidentally-will-spur-full-response-sullivan-1687559 |access-date=5 May 2022 |archive-date=12 September 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230912152512/https://www.newsweek.com/russia-hitting-nato-even-accidentally-will-spur-full-response-sullivan-1687559 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2022-09-21 |title=Biden denounces Putin's 'overt' nuclear threats, urges UN allies to reject Russia's invasion of Ukraine |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/biden-denounces-putins-overt-nuclear-threats-urges-un-allies-to-reject-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html |access-date=2022-09-21 |website=CNBC |language=en |archive-date=21 September 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220921194052/https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/21/biden-denounces-putins-overt-nuclear-threats-urges-un-allies-to-reject-russias-invasion-of-ukraine.html |url-status=live }}</ref> The US warned Russia's government that the country would suffer "catastrophic" consequences if it used nuclear weapons against Ukraine.<ref>{{cite news |title=U.S. warns Russia of 'catastrophic' consequences if it uses nuclear weapons |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-catastrophic-consequences-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-warns-rcna49365 |work=[[NBC News]] |date=26 September 2022}}</ref><ref>Natasha Turoc, "Biden warns of 'consequential' response from U.S. if Putin uses nuclear weapons". CNBC, 19 September 2022. [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/19/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html]</ref> Former [[Director of the Central Intelligence Agency|CIA Director]], [[David Petraeus]], said NATO would likely respond by destroying all Russian forces in Ukraine.<ref>{{cite news |title=Petraeus: US would destroy Russia's troops if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus |work=[[The Guardian]] |date=2 October 2022}}</ref> Several incidents have risked a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, such as [[Violations of non-combatant airspaces during the Russian invasion of Ukraine|Russian breaches of NATO airspace]] and [[2022 missile explosion in Poland|a missile explosion]] in Poland.<ref>{{Cite news |date=2022-11-15 |title=Explosion kills two in Poland near Ukraine border, with US claiming Russia may not be responsible |language=en-AU |work=ABC News |url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-16/explosion-kills-two-in-poland-near-ukraine-border/101658264 |access-date=2022-11-15 |archive-date=15 November 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221115195021/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-16/explosion-kills-two-in-poland-near-ukraine-border/101658264 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{Cite news |date=2022-11-15 |title=Wybuch w miejscowości Przewodów. Nie żyją dwie osoby |trans-title=Explosion in Przewodów. Two people are dead |language=pl-PL |work=Radio Lublin |url=https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/ |access-date=2022-11-15 |archive-date=15 November 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221115233613/https://radio.lublin.pl/2022/11/wybuch-ciagnika-w-miejscowosci-przewodow-nie-zyja-dwie-osoby/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref name="Joffre-2022">{{Cite news |date=2022-11-15 |title=Polish PM convenes 'urgent' meeting of defense committee |newspaper=The Jerusalem Post |url=https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-722483 |access-date=2022-11-15 |archive-date=15 November 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221115184400/https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-722483 |url-status=live }}</ref> In early 2023, Putin suspended Russia's participation in [[New START]], the last remaining nuclear treaty between Russia and the US,<ref>{{cite news |date=21 February 2023 |title=Putin: Russia suspends participation in last remaining Nuclear Treaty with the US |work=[[Reuters]] |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-russia-suspends-participation-last-remaining-nuclear-treaty-with-us-2023-02-21/ |access-date=18 March 2023 |archive-date=15 March 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230315162729/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-russia-suspends-participation-last-remaining-nuclear-treaty-with-us-2023-02-21/ |url-status=live }}</ref> and announced plans to install Russian tactical nuclear weapons in [[Belarus]].<ref>{{Cite web |last1=Chen |first1=Heather |last2=Humayun |first2=Hira |last3=Knight |first3=Mariya |last4=Carey |first4=Andrew |last5=Gigova |first5=Radina |last6=Kostenko |first6=Maria |date=2023-03-26 |title=Russia plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Putin says |url=https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/25/world/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-belarus-intl-hnk/index.html |access-date=2023-03-31 |website=CNN |archive-date=31 March 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230331052514/https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/25/world/russia-putin-nuclear-weapons-belarus-intl-hnk/index.html |url-status=live }}</ref>

Russian threats have been described as a way to intimidate Western countries, to deter them from helping Ukraine.<ref>{{cite web |last1=Giles |first1=Keir |title=Russian nuclear intimidation |url=https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/russian-nuclear-intimidation/introduction-and-context |website=[[Chatham House]] |date=3 October 2023}}</ref> Fearing escalation, NATO countries held back from sending advanced weapons to Ukraine, and forbade Ukraine to fire NATO weapons into Russia.<ref>{{cite web |date=6 September 2023 |title=Fake of the week: Russia is waging war against NATO in Ukraine |url=https://www.euractiv.pl/section/demokracja/news/fake-of-the-week-russia-is-waging-war-against-nato-in-ukraine/ |website=[[Euractiv]]}}</ref> Since July 2024, they have allowed Ukraine to use NATO weapons to strike military targets in Russia, but only near the border in self-defense.<ref>{{cite news |title=The West finally allowed Ukraine to strike back at Russia — and it seems to be working |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/14/europe/western-weapons-ukraine-russia-intl-cmd/ |work=[[CNN]] |date=15 July 2024}}</ref> Russia's government has not followed through on its threats against NATO and has not used nuclear weapons, despite most of its "[[Red lines in the Russo-Ukrainian War|red lines]]" being crossed.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Dickinson |first1=Peter |title=Putin is becoming entangled in his own discredited red lines |url=https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-is-becoming-entangled-in-his-own-discredited-red-lines/ |work=[[Atlantic Council]] |date=17 September 2014}}</ref>

[[Iran]] and [[North Korea]] have provided weapons and ammunition to Russia during the invasion, including ballistic missiles.<ref>{{cite news |title=Exclusive: Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/ |work=[[Reuters]] |date=21 February 2024}}</ref> In 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a [[North Korean–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership|defense pact]], and that November, Russia further escalated the conflict by deploying 10,000 North Korean troops on its border to fight Ukraine.<ref>{{cite news |title=North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-ratifies-mutual-defence-treaty-with-russia-2024-11-11/ |work=[[Reuters]] |date=11 November 2024}}</ref> In November 2024, Putin said that the war "has acquired elements of a global character", adding that Russia was entitled to strike military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against mainland Russia.<ref>[https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-fired-hypersonic-ballistic-missile-ukraine-warning-west-2024-11-21/ Putin says Ukraine war is going global]. Reuters</ref>

In February 2025, U.S. President [[Donald Trump]], his Vice President [[JD Vance]], and Ukrainian President [[Volodymyr Zelenskyy]] met to discuss signing an agreement for U.S. access to Ukrainian oil, gas, and rare earths. During the meeting, an argument erupted, with President Trump at one point chiding Zelenskyy for not being grateful enough for U.S. military and political support for Ukraine during the war, telling him he was "gambling with World War Three."<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-03-01 |title=Donald Trump accuses Zelensky of 'gambling with World War Three' |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9dejydynngo |access-date=2025-03-20 |website=www.bbc.com |language=en-GB}}</ref> The agreements were not signed, and Trump later said that Zelenskyy "is not ready for peace if America is involved because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations."<ref>{{Cite news |last=Roth |first=Andrew |last2=Gambino |first2=Lauren |date=2025-03-01 |title=Ukraine ‘gambling with world war three’, Trump tells Zelenskyy in fiery meeting |url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/28/trump-zelenskyy-meeting-ukraine-aid-war |access-date=2025-03-20 |work=The Guardian |language=en-GB |issn=0261-3077}} </ref>Currently the two forces, Russia and Ukraine, are considering a 30-day ceasefire.