Editing Hugo Chávez (section)

===Economic and social policy===
{{See also|Economic policy of the Hugo Chávez administration|Economy of Venezuela}}
[[File:Evolution of crude oil price.png|thumb|Historical crude oil prices, including the period of the Chávez administration (1998–2013)]]
[[File:Venezuela Economic Indicators, Chávez administration.png|350px|thumbnail|right|<span style="color:#4682B4">The blue line represents annual rates</span><p style="color:#f00;"><span style="color:#f00;">The red line represents trends of annual rates given throughout the period shown</span></p>GDP is in billions of [[community currency|Local Currency Unit]] that has been adjusted for inflation<br /> '''Sources''': [[International Monetary Fund]], [[World Bank]]
]]
From his election in 1998 until his death in March 2013, Chávez's administration proposed and enacted [[populist]] [[Economic policy|economic policies]]. The social programs were designed to be short-term, though after seeing political success as their result, Chávez made the efforts central to his administration and often overspent outside of Venezuela's budget.<ref name=":0">{{Cite book|title=El ocaso del chavismo: Venezuela 2005–2015|last=López Maya|first=Margarita|year=2016|isbn=9788417014254|pages=354–355|publisher=Editorial Alfa }}</ref>

Due to increasing oil prices in the early 2000s which raised funds not seen in Venezuela since the 1980s, Chávez created the [[Bolivarian Missions]], aimed at providing public services to improve economic, cultural, and social conditions,<ref name="p. 54">{{cite web|url=http://www.ops-oms.org.ve/site/pwr/docs/CCS_MS_OPS-OMS.pdf|title=Estrategia de Cooperación de OPS/OMS con Venezuela 2006–2008|date=June 2006|publisher=[[Pan American Health Organization]]|pages=[http://www.ops–oms.org.ve/site/pwr/docs/CCS_MS_OPS–OMS.pdf#page=54 p. 54]|language=es|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061024054050/http://www.ops-oms.org.ve/site/pwr/docs/CCS_MS_OPS-OMS.pdf|archive-date=24 October 2006|access-date=31 December 2006}}</ref><ref name="http">{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com/2006/11/10/eco_art_64504A.shtml|title=Banco de la Vivienda transfirió 66 millardos para subsidios|date=10 November 2006|newspaper=[[El Universal (Caracas)|El Universal]]|access-date=29 December 2006|language=es}}</ref><ref name="Barreiro C">{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com/2006/03/04/eco_art_04206A.shtml|title=Mercal es 34% más barato|last=Barreiro C.|first=Raquel|date=4 March 2006|newspaper=[[El Universal (Caracas)|El Universal]]|access-date=29 December 2006|language=es}}</ref><ref name=FTWD>{{cite book |last1=Heritage |first1=Andrew |title=Financial Times World Desk Reference |date=December 2002 |publisher=[[Dorling Kindersley]] |isbn=9780789488053 |pages=618–21|title-link=Financial Times }}</ref> using these populist policies to maintain political power.<ref name="CHOSUN2">{{Cite news|url=http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2018/05/02/2018050201490.html|script-title=ko:화폐경제 무너졌는데…최저임금 인상에 목매는 베네수엘라|last=남민우|first=기|date=2 May 2018|work=[[The Chosun Ilbo|朝鮮日報]]|access-date=22 May 2018|language=ko|quote=''Venezuela's fall is considered to be mainly caused by the populist policy ... Venezuela, for decades, has increased the number of public sector employees and has promoted populist support to maintain the regime''}}</ref><ref name="FPmarch2013" /><ref name=STRATexpensive>{{cite web|title=Venezuela's Expensive Friendships|url=https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/venezuelas-expensive-friendships|website=[[Stratfor]]|access-date=20 January 2016}}</ref> According to Corrales and Penfold, "aid was disbursed to ''some'' of the poor, and more gravely, in a way that ended up helping the president and his allies and cronies more than anyone else".<ref name="DRAGONp5">{{cite book|last1=Corrales|first1=Javier|last2=Penfold|first2=Michael|title=Dragon in the Tropics: The Legacy of Hugo Chávez|date=2 April 2015|publisher=[[Brookings Institution Press]]|isbn=978-0815725930|page=5}}</ref> The Missions, which were directly overseen by Chávez and often linked to his political campaigns,<ref name=":0" /> entailed the construction of thousands of free medical clinics for the poor<ref name="p. 54"/> and the enactment of food<ref name="Barreiro C"/> and housing subsidies.<ref name="http"/> The quality of life of Venezuelans had also improved temporarily according to a UN Index.<ref name="UN">Charlie Devereux & Raymond Colitt. 7 March 2013. {{cite web|url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-07/venezuelans-quality-of-life-improved-in-un-index-under-chavez.html |title=Venezuelans' Quality of Life Improved in UN Index Under Chavez |publisher=Bloomberg L.P. |access-date=7 March 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141107050220/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-07/venezuelans-quality-of-life-improved-in-un-index-under-chavez.html |archive-date=7 November 2014 |url-status=unfit }}</ref> [[Teresa A. Meade]] wrote that Chávez's popularity strongly depended "on the lower classes who have benefited from these health initiatives and similar policies".<ref>[[Teresa Meade|Meade, Teresa]]. ''A History of Modern Latin America: 1800 to the Present'' (Oxford 2010), p. 313.</ref> Following elections, social programs saw less attention from the government and their overall effectiveness decreased.<ref name=":0" />

The [[Gini coefficient]], a measure of [[income inequality]], dropped from .495 in 1998 to .39 in 2011, putting Venezuela behind only Canada in the Western Hemisphere.<ref name=unstable>{{cite news |title=Chavez leaves Venezuelan economy more equal, less stable |first=Kevin |last=Voigt |url=https://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/06/business/venezuela-chavez-oil-economy/ |publisher=CNN |date=6 March 2013 |access-date=6 March 2013}}</ref> 95% of Venezuelans aged 15 and older could also read and write,<ref>[[UNESCO]], [http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=121&IF_Language=eng&BR_Country=8620 Education in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110811111154/http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/document.aspx?ReportId=121&IF_Language=eng&BR_Country=8620 |date=11 August 2011 }}</ref>{{Primary source inline|date=January 2023}} though some scholars have disputed the claim that literacy improvements during Chavez's presidency resulted from his administration's policies.<ref>{{cite news |title=Propaganda, not policy |url=http://www.economist.com/node/10766504 |access-date=3 May 2014 |newspaper=The Economist|date=28 February 2008}}</ref> The poverty rate fell from 48.6% in 1999 to 32.1% in 2013, according to the Venezuelan government's National Statistics Institute (INE).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ine.gov.ve/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=104&Itemid=45#|website=Instituto Nacional de Estadística|access-date=20 January 2016|format=xls|title=Hogares pobres por ingreso, 1er semestre 1997-1er semestre 2015|language=es|trans-title=Poor households by income, 1997-1er semester 1st semester 2015|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120727181241/http://www.ine.gov.ve/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=104&Itemid=45|archive-date=27 July 2012|url-status=dead}}</ref> The drop of Venezuela's poverty rate compared to [[Poverty in South America|poverty in other South American countries]] was slightly behind that of Peru, Brazil and Panama<ref name=5waysFUSION>{{cite news |last=Keppel |first=Stephen |title=5 Ways Hugo Chavez Has Destroyed the Venezuelan Economy |url=http://fusion.net/abc_univision/news/story/ways-chavez-destroyed-venezuelan-economy-16104 |access-date=21 April 2014 |newspaper=Fusion |date=17 January 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140919223723/http://fusion.net/abc_univision/news/story/ways-chavez-destroyed-venezuelan-economy-16104 |archive-date=19 September 2014}}</ref> with the poverty rate becoming higher than the Latin American average in 2013 according to the UN.<ref name="CSM25march">{{cite news|url=http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2015/0325/Venezuela-Does-an-increase-in-poverty-signal-threat-to-government|title=Venezuela: Does an increase in poverty signal threat to government?|last1=Gallagher|first1=J. J.|date=25 March 2015|access-date=29 March 2015|agency=[[The Christian Science Monitor]]}}</ref> In the two years following Chávez's death, the poverty rate returned to where it had been before his presidency,<ref name=CSM25march/> with a 2017 [[NACLA]] analysis stating that "reductions in poverty and inequality during the Chávez years were real, but somewhat superficial ... structural poverty and inequality, such as the quality of housing, neighborhoods, education, and employment, remained largely unchanged".<ref name=NACLAcrimeREV/>

Chávez's populist policies eventually led to a severe socioeconomic crisis in Venezuela.<ref name="CHOSUN2"/> The social works initiated by Chávez's government relied on [[Petroleum|oil products]], the keystone of the Venezuelan economy, with Chávez's administration suffering from [[Dutch disease]] as a result.<ref name=FPmarch2013/><ref name=USVEN>{{cite book |last1=Corrales |first1=Javier |last2=Romero |first2=Carlos |title=U.S.–Venezuela relations since the 1990s : coping with mid-level security threats |date=2013 |publisher=Routledge |location=New York |isbn=978-0415895248 |pages=79–81}}</ref> In 2012, the World Bank also explained that Venezuela's economy was "extremely vulnerable" to changes in oil prices since in 2012 "96% of the country's exports and nearly half of its fiscal revenue" relied on oil production, while by 2008, according to ''[[Foreign Policy]]'', exports of everything but oil "collapsed".<ref name=FPmarch2013/><ref>{{cite web |title=Venezuela Overview |url=http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/venezuela/overview |publisher=World Bank |access-date=13 April 2014}}</ref> The Chávez administration then spent governmental proceeds from the high oil prices on his populist policies to gain the approval of voters.<ref name=FPmarch2013/><ref name=FTWD/>

Economists say that the Venezuelan government's overspending on social programs and strict business policies caused to imbalances in the country's economy, contributing to rising inflation, poverty, low healthcare spending and [[shortages in Venezuela]] going into the final years of his presidency.<ref name="UN"/><ref name="ELPAISfeb2015" /><ref name=FTWD/><ref>{{cite web |title=Health expenditure, total (% of GDP) |url=http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.TOTL.ZS |website=[[World Bank]] |access-date=19 May 2015}}</ref> Such occurrences, especially the risk of [[Default (finance)|default]] and the unfriendliness toward private businesses, led to a lack of foreign investment and stronger foreign currencies,<ref name=STRATexpensive/> though the Venezuelan government argued that the private sector had remained relatively unchanged during Chavez's presidency despite several nationalizations.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/feedarticle/9179275 |title=Despite Chávez, Venezuela economy not socialist |last=James |first=Ian |date=19 July 2010 |work=The Guardian |access-date=17 November 2012 |location=London}}</ref> In January 2013 near the end of Chávez's presidency, [[The Heritage Foundation]] and ''[[The Wall Street Journal]]'' gave Venezuela's economic freedom a score of 36.1, down from 56.1 in 1999, ranking its freedom very low at 174th of 177 countries, with freedom on a downward trend.<ref>{{cite web |title=2013 Index of Economic Freedom |url=http://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2013/book/index_2013.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130415231306/http://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2013/book/index_2013.pdf |archive-date=15 April 2013 |url-status=unfit |publisher=Heritage Foundation |access-date=2 April 2014}}</ref> According to some analysts, the economic problems Venezuela has suffered under President [[Nicolás Maduro]] would likely have emerged even if Chávez had remained president.<ref name=WHARTON>{{cite web |title=Post-Chavez, Venezuela Enters a Downward Spiral |url=http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/post-chavez-venezuela-enters-downward-spiral/ |website=[[Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania]] |access-date=21 February 2015}}</ref>

====Food and products====
In the 1980s and 1990s, health and nutrition indexes in Venezuela were generally low, and social inequality in access to nutrition was high.<ref>George W. Schuyler. 2002. Globalization and Health: Venezuela and Cuba
Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue canadienne d'études du développement
Vol. 23, Iss. 4,</ref> Chávez made it his stated goal to lower inequality in access to basic nutrition, and to achieve [[food sovereignty]] for Venezuela.<ref>Parker, Dick. 2005. Chávez and the Search for an Alternative to Neoliberalism. Latin American Perspectives 32:39 p. 36</ref> The main strategy for making food available to all economic classes was the controversial policy of creating fixed price ceilings for basic staple foods, which was implemented in 2003.<ref name="bloomberg1">{{cite news |last=Devereux |first=Charlie |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-22/chavez-activates-price-law-to-end-capitalist-speculation-1-.html |title=Chávez Activates Price Law to End Capitalist Speculation |publisher=Bloomberg.com |date=22 November 2011 |access-date=2 February 2013}}</ref> Between 1998 and 2006, malnutrition related deaths fell by 50%.<ref>Derham, Michael. 2010 Politics in Venezuela: Explaining Hugo Chávez. Peter Lang. p. 296.</ref> Chávez also [[expropriate]]d and [[Agrarian reform|redistributed]] 5 million acres of farmland from large landowners.<ref>[https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/19/AR2009061903400.html In Venezuela, Land 'Rescue' Hopes Unmet], Washington Post, 20 June 2009</ref>
[[File:Escasez en Venezuela, Mercal.JPG|250px|thumbnail|left|Shoppers waiting in line at a government-run [[Mission Mercal|MERCAL]] store]]
Price controls initiated by Chávez created product shortages since merchants could no longer afford to import necessary goods.<ref>{{cite news |title=Venezuelan food shortages bode ill for Chavez's re-election |url=http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-08-12/hugo-chavez-venezuela-food-shortages/57021168/1 |access-date=9 October 2012 |newspaper=USA Today |date=13 August 2012 |archive-date=4 February 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140204020223/http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-08-12/hugo-chavez-venezuela-food-shortages/57021168/1 |url-status=dead }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=With Venezuelan Food Shortages, Some Blame Price Controls |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/21/world/americas/venezuela-faces-shortages-in-grocery-staples.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 |access-date=9 October 2012 |newspaper=The New York Times|date=20 April 2012 |first=William |last=Neuman}}</ref> Chávez blamed "speculators and hoarders" for these scarcities<ref name="CNN Food">{{cite news|last=Romo |first=Rafael |title=Food shortages worry Venezuelans |url=http://articles.cnn.com/2011-12-13/americas/world_americas_venezuela-food-shortages_1_food-shortages-traditional-venezuelan-dish-guaicaipuro?_s=PM:AMERICAS |access-date=16 May 2012 |publisher=CNN |date=13 December 2011 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120401204443/http://articles.cnn.com/2011-12-13/americas/world_americas_venezuela-food-shortages_1_food-shortages-traditional-venezuelan-dish-guaicaipuro?_s=PM%3AAMERICAS |archive-date=1 April 2012 }}</ref> and strictly enforced his price control policy, denouncing anyone who sold food products for higher prices.<ref name="bloomberg1"/> In 2011, [[food prices]] in Caracas were nine times higher than when the price controls were put in place and resulted in shortages of cooking oil, chicken, powdered milk, cheese, sugar and meat.<ref name=ECONfood>{{cite news |title=Venezuela's economy: Medieval policies |url=http://www.economist.com/node/21526365 |access-date=21 April 2014 |newspaper=The Economist|date=20 August 2011}}</ref> The price controls increased the demand for basic foods while making it difficult for Venezuela to import goods, causing increased reliance on domestic production. Economists believe this policy increased shortages.<ref name="CNN Food"/><ref name="NYT Food">{{cite news |last=Neuman |first=William |title=With Venezuelan Food Shortages, Some Blame Price Controls |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/21/world/americas/venezuela-faces-shortages-in-grocery-staples.html?pagewanted=all |access-date=16 May 2012 |newspaper=The New York Times |date=20 April 2012}}</ref> Shortages of food then occurred throughout the rest of Chávez's presidency with food shortage rates between 10% and 20% from 2010 to 2013.<ref name="ELUgraph">{{cite news|url=http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/140213/el-ascenso-de-la-escasez|title=El ascenso de la escasez|date=13 February 2014|newspaper=El Universal|access-date=21 April 2014}}</ref> One possible reason for shortages is the relationship between inflation and subsidies, where a lack profitability due to price regulations affects operations. In turn, the lack of dollars made it difficult to purchase more food imports.<ref name="ByNfood">{{cite news|url=http://bancaynegocios.com/los-principales-causas-de-la-escasez-en-venezuela/|title=Las principales causas de la escasez en Venezuela|date=27 March 2014|newspaper=Banca & Negocios|access-date=21 April 2014|url-status=dead|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140422232415/http://bancaynegocios.com/los-principales-causas-de-la-escasez-en-venezuela/|archive-date=22 April 2014}}</ref> Chávez's strategy in response to food shortages consisted of attempting to increase domestic production through nationalizing large parts of the food industry,{{citation needed|date=February 2015}} though such nationalizations allegedly did the opposite and caused decreased production instead.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Minaya |first1=Ezequiel |last2=Schaefer Muñoz |first2=Sara |title=Venezuela Confronts Retail Sector |url=https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-confronts-retail-sector-1423528705 |access-date=1 March 2015 |work=[[The Wall Street Journal]]|date=9 February 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Empty shelves and rhetoric |url=https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21640395-government-offers-no-solutions-mounting-economic-crisis-empty-shelves-and-rhetoric |access-date=1 March 2015 |agency=[[The Economist]]|date=24 January 2015}}</ref>

As part of his strategy of food security Chávez started a national chain of supermarkets, the [[Mission Mercal|Mercal network]], which had 16,600 outlets and 85,000 employees that distributed food at highly discounted prices, and ran 6,000 soup kitchens throughout the country.<ref name="FoodFight"/> Simultaneously Chávez expropriated many private supermarkets.<ref name="FoodFight">[https://web.archive.org/web/20100314052640/http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_12/b4171046603604.htm A Food Fight for Hugo Chávez], Business Week, 11 March 2010</ref> The Mercal network was criticized by some commentators as being a part of Chávez's strategy to brand himself as a provider of cheap food, and the shops feature his picture prominently.{{According to whom|date = May 2015}} The Mercal network was also subject to frequent shortages of basic staples such as meat, milk and sugar—and when scarce products arrived, shoppers had to wait in lines.<ref name="FoodFight"/>

====Communes====
After his election in 1998, more than 100,000 state-owned cooperatives—which claimed to represent some 1.5&nbsp;million people—were formed with the assistance of government start-up credit and technical training.<ref name="vene-coop-rev">{{Cite journal |last1=Bowman |first1=Betsy |last2=Stone |first2=Bob |title=Venezuela's Cooperative Revolution |journal=Dollars and Sense |volume=15 |issue=266 |date=July–August 2006 |url=http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2006/0706bowmanstone.html}}</ref>

The Venezuelan government often failed to construct the number of homes they had proposed.<ref name="EUhome">[http://english.eluniversal.com/2006/07/31/en_eco_art_31A756381.shtml Chávez' Government has built 24 percent of scheduled houses.] ''El Universal'' (31 July 2006). {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080411130530/http://english.eluniversal.com/2006/07/31/en_eco_art_31A756381.shtml |date=11 April 2008 }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |title=Misión Vivienda incumplió 70% de su objetivo de 2014 |url=http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2014/12/30/mision-vivienda-incumplio-70-de-su-objetivo-de-2014/ |access-date=4 January 2015 |agency=La Patilla |date=30 December 2014}}</ref> According to Venezuela's ''[[El Universal (Caracas)|El Universal]]'', one of the Chávez administration's outstanding failures was the inability to meet its goals of constructing housing.<ref name="EUhome" />

====Currency controls====
{{further|Economy of Venezuela#Currency Black Market}}
[[File:Venezuela Black Market 2010-2014.png|370px|thumbnail|right|<span style="color:#4682B4">Blue line represents implied value of the [[Venezuelan bolívar#Hard bolívar|hard bolívar]] (VEF) compared to the [[United States dollar|US dollar]] (USD)</span><p style="color:#f00;"><span style="color:#f00;">The red line represents what the Venezuelan government officially rates the hard bolívar</span><br /><small>'''Sources''': Banco Central de Venezuela, Dolar Paralelo, Federal Reserve Bank, International Monetary Fund</small></p>]]
In the first few years of Chavez's office, his newly created social programs required large payments to make the desired changes. On 5 February 2003, the government created [[CADIVI]], a currency control board charged with handling foreign exchange procedures. Its creation was to control [[capital flight]] by placing limits on individuals and only offering them so much of a foreign currency.<ref>CADIVI, [http://www.cadivi.gov.ve/cadivi/cadivi.html CADIVI, una medidia necesaria] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081205143924/http://www.cadivi.gov.ve/cadivi/cadivi.html |date=5 December 2008 }}</ref> This limit to foreign currency led to a creation of a currency [[black market]] economy since Venezuelan merchants rely on foreign goods that require payments with reliable foreign currencies. As Venezuela printed more money for their social programs, the bolívar continued to devalue for Venezuelan citizens and merchants since the government held the majority of the more reliable currencies.<ref>{{cite web |last=Hanke |first=Steve |title=The World's Troubled Currencies |url=http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article41552.html |publisher=The Market Oracle |access-date=26 January 2014}}</ref>

The implied value or "black market value" is what Venezuelans believe the [[Venezuelan bolívar#Hard bolívar|hard bolívar]] is worth compared to the United States dollar.<ref>{{cite news |title=Venezuela's black market rate for US dollars just jumped by almost 40% |url=http://qz.com/192395/venezuelas-black-market-rate-for-us-dollars-just-jumped-by-almost-40/#/h/56869,3/ |access-date=27 March 2014 |newspaper=Quartz |date=26 March 2014}}</ref> The high rates in the black market make it difficult for businesses to purchase necessary goods since the government often forces these businesses to make price cuts. This leads to businesses selling their goods and making a low profit.<ref>{{cite news |last=Pons |first=Corina |title=McDonald's Agrees to Cut the Price of a Venezuelan Big Mac Combo |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-14/mcdonald-s-agrees-to-cut-the-price-of-a-venezuelan-big-mac-combo.html |access-date=26 January 2014 |newspaper=Bloomberg L.P. |date=14 January 2014}}</ref> Since businesses make low profits, this leads to shortages since they are unable to import the goods that Venezuela is reliant on.<ref>{{cite news |last=Goodman |first=Joshua |title=Venezuela overhauls foreign exchange system |url=http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-01-22/venezuela-food-giant-warns-production-at-risk |access-date=26 January 2014 |newspaper=Bloomberg L.P. |date=22 January 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140214224213/http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-01-22/venezuela-food-giant-warns-production-at-risk |archive-date=14 February 2014}}</ref> Chavez used exchange rate subsidies to underwrite imports; this policy was not welfare-maximizing, but rather benefited special interests.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Gulotty|first1=Robert|last2=Kronick|first2=Dorothy|date=2021|title=The Arbitrage Lobby: Theory and Evidence on Dual Exchange Rates|journal=International Organization|volume=76|pages=105–125|language=en|doi=10.1017/S002081832100031X|issn=0020-8183|doi-access=free}}</ref>