Editing Political status of Taiwan (section)

=== Political ===
{{original research section|date=July 2021}}

Although the situation is complex, most observers believe that it is stable with enough understandings and [[gentlemen's agreement]]s to keep things from breaking out into open warfare. The current controversy is over the term ''one China'', as the PRC insists that the ROC must recognize this term to begin negotiations. Although the Democratic Progressive Party has moderated its support for Taiwan independence, there is still insufficient support within that party for former President Chen Shui-bian to agree to one China. By contrast, the Kuomintang (KMT) and the [[People First Party (Republic of China)|People First Party]] (PFP) appear willing to agree to some variation of one China, and observers believed the position of the PRC was designed to sideline Chen until the [[2004 ROC presidential election|2004 presidential election]] where it was hoped that someone who was more supportive of [[Cross-Strait Unification|Chinese unification]] would come to power. Partly to counter this, Chen Shui-bian announced in July 2002 that if the PRC does not respond to Taiwan's goodwill, Taiwan may "go on its own ... road." {{citation needed|date=January 2020}} What ROC president, Chen Shui-bian, means by this is that there are other ways of combatting China as a powerful hegemon. For example, "If Taiwan's Chen Shui-bian had declared legal independence by a popular referendum, scholars agree that is could have immediately triggered a crisis in China, due to its political sensitivity on the mainland".<ref>Wei, C. N. (2010). "China's Anti-Secession Law and Hu Jintao's Taiwan Policy". ''Yale J. Int'l Aff.'', 5, 112. p. 115, Par. 2, Lines 7–10.</ref> Taiwan's forced establishment of sovereignty scares the PRC; so when they implement laws, such as the Anti-secession law, it angers ROC's public opinion, and actually creates a "rallying around the flag" effect<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Baker |first1=William D. |last2=Oneal |first2=John R. |date=October 2001 |title=Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?: The Nature and Origins of the "Rally 'Round the Flag" Effect |journal=[[Journal of Conflict Resolution]] |language=en |volume=45 |issue=5 |pages=661–687 |doi=10.1177/0022002701045005006 |issn=0022-0027 |jstor=3176318}}</ref> in support of the Taiwanese independence movement.

With Chen's re-election in 2004, Beijing's prospects for a speedier resolution were dampened, though they seemed strengthened again following the Pan-Blue majority in the [[2004 ROC legislative election|2004 legislative elections]]. However, public opinion in Taiwan reacted unfavorably towards the [[Anti-Secession Law|anti-secession law]] passed by the PRC in March 2005. Following two high-profile visits by KMT and PFP party leaders to the PRC, the balance of public opinion appears to be ambiguous, with the Pan-Green Coalition gaining a majority in the [[2005 ROC National Assembly election|2005 National Assembly elections]], but the Pan-Blue Coalition scoring a landslide victory in the 2005 municipal elections.{{cn|date=August 2024}}

Legislative elections were held in Taiwan on [[2008 Republic of China legislative election|12 January 2008]]. The results gave the Kuomintang and the [[Pan-Blue Coalition]] an absolute majority (86 of the 113 seats) in the Legislative Yuan, handing a heavy defeat to President [[Chen Shui-bian]]'s Democratic Progressive Party, which won the remaining 27 seats. The junior partner in the [[Pan-Green Coalition]], the [[Taiwan Solidarity Union]], won no seats.{{cn|date=August 2024}}

The election for the 12th President of ROC was held on [[2008 Republic of China presidential election|22 March 2008]]. Kuomintang candidate Ma Ying-jeou won, with 58% of the vote, ending eight years of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leadership. Along with the 2008 legislative election, Ma's landslide victory brought the Kuomintang back to power in Taiwan. This new political situation has led to a decrease of tension between both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the increase of [[cross-strait relations]], making a declaration of independence, or war, something unlikely.{{cn|date=August 2024}}

Taiwan's [[Straits Exchange Foundation]] (SEF) and its Chinese counterpart&nbsp;– the [[Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait]] (ARATS)&nbsp;– signed four agreements in Taipei on 4 November 2008. Both SEF and ARATS have agreed to address direct sea links, daily charter flights, direct postal service, and food safety.<ref>{{cite news|title=Taiwan reached deals with China at the expense of sovereignty and democracy|publisher=[[European Federation of Taiwanese Associations|EFTA]]|date=6 November 2008|url=http://www.eutaiwan.org/en2.html|access-date=25 June 2009|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110726042820/http://www.eutaiwan.org/en2.html|archive-date=26 July 2011|url-status=dead}}</ref>

It has been reported that China has set a 2049 deadline for the unification of Taiwan with Mainland China, which is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PRC.<ref>{{Cite web|last=Bagshaw|first=Eryk|date=2021-01-29|title=Why Taiwan might be the next global flashpoint|url=https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/why-might-taiwan-be-the-next-global-flashpoint-20210129-p56xya.html|access-date=2021-03-11|website=The Sydney Morning Herald|language=en|archive-date=24 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210224035547/https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/why-might-taiwan-be-the-next-global-flashpoint-20210129-p56xya.html|url-status=live}}</ref> [[General Secretary of the Communist Party|CCP general secretary]] [[Xi Jinping]] has been saying that unification was part of the [[Chinese Dream]].<ref>{{Cite web|title=Taiwan's Tsai shoots down Xi's unification road map|url=https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Taiwan-s-Tsai-shoots-down-Xi-s-unification-road-map|access-date=2021-03-11|website=Nikkei Asia|language=en-GB|archive-date=12 February 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210212073025/https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Taiwan-s-Tsai-shoots-down-Xi-s-unification-road-map|url-status=live}}</ref>

In 2021, the China's Taiwan Affairs Office stated that they would not allow pro-Taiwan independence people into China, including Hong Kong and Macau, naming Taiwanese Premier [[Su Tseng-chang]], Legislative Yuan Speaker [[You Si-kun]] and Foreign Minister [[Joseph Wu]] as people who are "stubbornly pro-Taiwan independence".<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-05/china-taiwan-independence-banned-hong-kong-macau/100599500|title=If you support Taiwan's independence, China won't let you into the mainland, Hong Kong, or Macau|newspaper=[[ABC News (United States)|ABC News]]|date=5 November 2021|via=www.abc.net.au|access-date=5 November 2021|archive-date=5 November 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211105154312/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-05/china-taiwan-independence-banned-hong-kong-macau/100599500|url-status=live}}</ref>