Editing Strait of Hormuz (section)

==Ability of Iran to hinder shipping==
{{see also|Military of Iran}}
[[Millennium Challenge 2002]] was a major war game exercise conducted by the United States armed forces in 2002. According to a 2012 article in The Christian Science Monitor, it simulated an attempt by Iran to close the strait. The assumptions and results were controversial. In the article, Iran's strategy beats the materially superior US armed forces.<ref name=CSmon0>{{cite web |url=http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0126/How-Iran-could-beat-up-on-America-s-superior-military |title=How Iran could beat up on America's superior military |last=Peterson |first=Scott |work=csmonitor.com |date=26 January 2012 |access-date=25 February 2012 |archive-date=17 February 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120217154700/http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0126/How-Iran-could-beat-up-on-America-s-superior-military |url-status=live}}</ref>

A 2008 article in ''[[International Security]]'' contended that Iran could seal off or impede traffic in the Strait for a month, and an attempt by the U.S. to reopen it would be likely to escalate the conflict.<ref>[http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18409/closing_time.html Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080821160546/http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18409/closing_time.html |date=21 August 2008}}, by Caitlin Talmadge, ''[[International Security]]'', Harvard Kennedy School</ref> In a later issue, however, the journal published a response which questioned some key assumptions and suggested a much shorter timeline for re-opening.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=O'Neil |first1=William D. |last2=Talmadge |first2=Caitlin |title=Costs and Difficulties of Blocking the Strait of Hormuz |url=http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/isec.2009.33.3.190 |url-status=live |journal=International Security |volume=33 |issue=3 |pages=190–198 |year=2009 |access-date=28 February 2009 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190423163156/https://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/isec.2009.33.3.190 |archive-date=23 April 2019 |s2cid=18420122 |hdl=1721.1/57443 |hdl-access=free |doi=10.1162/isec.2009.33.3.190}}</ref>

In December 2011, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy began a ten-day exercise in international waters along the strait. The Iranian Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari stated that the strait would not be closed during the exercise; Iranian forces could easily accomplish that but such a decision must be made at a political level.<ref>{{cite news |title=Iranian navy begins exercise in waters near strategic oil route |url=http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-12/26/content_14324816.htm |newspaper=[[China Daily]] |date=26 December 2011 |access-date=8 January 2012 |archive-date=28 December 2011 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111228055936/http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-12/26/content_14324816.htm |url-status=live}}</ref><ref name=cncbEasyClose>{{cite news |title=Shutting Off Gulf 'Very Easy': Iran Navy Chief |url=https://www.cnbc.com/id/45803146 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150924081727/https://www.cnbc.com/id/45803146 |url-status=dead |archive-date=24 September 2015 |agency=Reuters |publisher=CNBC |date=28 December 2011 |access-date=8 January 2012}}</ref>

Captain [[John Kirby (admiral)|John Kirby]], a Pentagon spokesman, was quoted in a December 2011 Reuters article: "Efforts to increase tension in that part of the world are unhelpful and counter-productive. For our part, we are comfortable that we have in the region sufficient capabilities to honor our commitments to our friends and partners, as well as the international community." In the same article, Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert at the Brookings Institution, said, "The expectation is that the U.S. military could address any Iranian threat relatively quickly."<ref name=cnbcAnalysis1>{{cite news |title=Hormuz Blockade: Not as Easy as Iran May Think |url=https://www.cnbc.com/id/45813538/Hormuz_Blockade_Not_as_Easy_as_Iran_May_Think |agency=Reuters |publisher=CNBC |date=29 December 2011 |access-date=8 January 2012}}{{dead link|date=November 2024|bot=medic}}{{cbignore|bot=medic}}</ref>

[[Martin Dempsey|General Martin Dempsey]], Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in January 2012 that Iran "has invested in capabilities that could, in fact, for a period of time block the Strait of Hormuz." He also stated, "We've invested in capabilities to ensure that if that happens, we can defeat that."<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-08/iran-able-to-block-strait-of-hormuz-general-dempsey-tells-cbs.html |title=Iran Has Ability to Block Strait of Hormuz, U.S. General Dempsey Tells CBS |date=8 January 2012 |publisher=Bloomberg |access-date=9 January 2012 |first1=Kathleen |last1=Hunter |first2=Viola |last2=Gienger |archive-date=10 January 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120110055805/http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-08/iran-able-to-block-strait-of-hormuz-general-dempsey-tells-cbs.html |url-status=live}}</ref>

A May 2012 article by Nilufer Oral, a Turkish researcher of [[maritime law]], concludes that both the [[UNCLOS]] and the 1958 [[Convention on the High Seas]] would be violated if Iran followed through on its threat to block passage of vessels such as oil tankers, and that the act of passage is not related in law to the imposition of economic sanctions. The article further asserts that a coastal state may prevent "transit or non-suspendable innocent passage" only if: 1) there is threatened or actual use of force, occurring during passage, against the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of a state bordering the strait; or 2) the vessel in any other way violates the principles of international law as embodied in the [[Charter of the United Nations]].<ref name=onasil>{{cite journal |last=Oral |first=Nilufer |title=Transit Passage Rights in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's Threats to Block the Passage of Oil Tankers |journal=Insights |date=3 May 2012 |volume=16 |issue=16 |url=https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/16/issue/16/transit-passage-rights-strait-hormuz-and-iran%E2%80%99s-threats-block-passage |publisher=[[American Society of International Law]] |access-date=26 August 2019 |archive-date=5 October 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161005105452/https://www.asil.org/insights/volume/16/issue/16/transit-passage-rights-strait-hormuz-and-iran%E2%80%99s-threats-block-passage |url-status=live}}</ref>

As of 2013, the treaty had been ratified by 63 states, including most [[NATO]]-bloc and [[Soviet-bloc]] nations but with the notable exceptions of most of the [[OPEC]] and [[Arab League]] nations like [[Syria]], [[Egypt]], [[Jordan]], [[Saudi Arabia]], and [[Iran]], as well as [[China]], [[North Korea]], and [[South Korea]].<ref>{{cite web |url=http://treaties.un.org/Pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXI-2&chapter=21&lang=en |title=United Nations Treaty Collection - Chapter XXI: Law of the Sea |access-date=3 May 2013 |archive-date=17 October 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131017195214/http://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXI-2&chapter=21&lang=en |url-status=dead}}</ref>