Editing Social Security (United States) (section)

=== Demographic and revenue projections ===
{{See also|Pensions crisis|Dependency ratio|Sub-replacement fertility|Economic consequences of population decline}}
In each year since 1982, OASDI tax receipts, interest payments and other income had exceeded benefit payments and other expenditures, for example by more than $150{{spaces}}billion in 2004.<ref name="www.ssa.gov.661">{{cite web | title=OASDI Trust Funds (See above) | url=http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4a3.html | access-date=2005-12-03}}</ref> However, as the "[[post–World War II baby boom|baby boomers]]" moved out of the work force and into retirement, expenses came to exceed tax receipts and then, exceeded all OASDI trust income, including interest, starting in 2018 (see chart Social Security Revenue and Cost, above). At that point the system began drawing on its trust fund Treasury Notes, and will continue to pay benefits at the then current levels until the Trust Fund is exhausted.

When the costs of the Social Security program started to exceed income in 2018, the trust fund began to empty and, without changes made to the system, will be fully depleted in the future. In a survey of 210 members of the [[American Economics Association]] published in November 2006, 85 percent agreed with the statement: "The gap between Social Security funds and expenditures will become unsustainably large within the next fifty years if current policies remain unchanged."<ref>{{Cite journal | last1=Whaples | first1=Robert | author-link1=Robert Whaples | date=November 2006 | title=Do Economists Agree on Anything? Yes! | url=https://people.uwec.edu/jamelsem/fte/fte/efl/teacher_stuff/articles/economists_agree.pdf | journal=[[The Economists' Voice]] | volume=3 | issue=9 | pages=1–6 | doi=10.2202/1553-3832.1156 | s2cid=201123406}}</ref>

Furthermore, increased spending for the Social Security program will occur at the same time as increases in demand for [[Medicare (United States)|Medicare]], as a result of the aging of the baby boomers. One projection illustrates the relationship between the two programs:

<blockquote>From 2004 to 2030, the combined spending on Social Security and Medicare is expected to rise from 8% of national income (gross domestic product) to 13%. Two-thirds of the increase occurs in Medicare.<ref name="www.washingtonpost.com.666">{{Cite news | title=It's More Than Social Security | url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A8100-2005Jan13.html | access-date=2005-12-03 | newspaper=[[The Washington Post]] | last=Samuelson | first=Robert J. | date=2005-01-14}}</ref></blockquote>

In May 2024, the Treasury Department issued the annual trustees report for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds with depletion date projections for the funds estimated at 2033 and 2098 respectively and by 2035 when combined.<ref name="Konish 2024">{{cite news | last=Konish | first=Lorie | date=May 6, 2024 | title=Social Security now expected to run short on funds in 2035, one year later than previously projected, Treasury says | publisher=CNBC | url=https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/06/social-security-expected-to-run-short-on-funds-in-2035-government-says.html | access-date=May 7, 2024}}</ref><ref name="Duehren 2024">{{cite news | last=Duehren | first=Andrew | date=May 7, 2024 | title=Social Security Funds Are Running Dry. Don't Panic. | work=The Wall Street Journal | publisher=News Corp | url=https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/social-security-insolvency-funding-charts-f41a1194 | access-date=May 7, 2024}}</ref><ref name="Hinkle 2024">{{cite press release | last=Hinkle | first=Mark | date=May 6, 2024 | title=Strong Economy, Low Unemployment, and Higher Job and Wage Growth Extend Social Security Trust Funds to 2035 | publisher=Social Security Administration | url=https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2024/#5-2024-1 | access-date=May 7, 2024}}</ref><ref name="SSA annual report 2024 p. 6">{{cite report | title=The 2024 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Trust Funds | year=2024 | publisher=Social Security Administration | page=6 | url=https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TR/2024/tr2024.pdf | access-date=May 7, 2024}}</ref>

==== Ways to eliminate the projected shortfall ====
[[File:AFSCME supporter holding sign over his head - Hands Off Our Social Security.jpg|thumb|upright|A February 2013 protest]]<!--[[wp:caption]]: "Not every image ..."-->
The Social Security program is predicted to run out of money to pay all prospective benefits at today's level of benefits in 2034.<ref name="Social Security Administration" /> Ways to extend that date are as follows.

* '''Lift the payroll ceiling'''. The payroll ceiling is now adjusted for inflation.<ref>{{cite report | title=CBO tax report 2009 | url=http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43373 | access-date=October 15, 2013}}</ref> [[Robert Reich]], former [[United States Secretary of Labor]], suggests lifting the ceiling on income subject to Social Security taxes, which is $168,600 as of 2024.<ref name="Reich 2013">{{cite news | title=What's the 'Chained CPI,' Why It's Bad for Social Security and Why the White House Shouldn't Be Touting It (VIDEO) | first=Reich | last=Robert | author-link=Robert Reich | url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/chained-cpi_b_3016471.html | newspaper=Huffington Post | date=2013-04-04 | access-date=2013-04-11}}</ref>
* '''Increase Social Security taxes'''. If workers and employers each paid 8.0% (up from today's 6.2%), it would provide solvency through 2090. Self-employed persons would pay 16.00% on earnings (up from today's 12.4%) under this proposal.<ref>{{Cite web | url=https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/charts/chart_run274.html | access-date=April 7, 2023 | title=Long Range Solvency Provisions}}</ref>
* '''Raise the retirement age(s)'''. Raising the normal retirement age by two months per year until it reaches 69 in 2034 would reduce payouts and improve solvency.<ref>{{Cite web | url=https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/charts/chart_run223.html#graph | title=Long-Range Effects of Proposal C1.4 | website=Social Security Administration Research, Statistics, and Policy Analysis | language=en | access-date=2023-04-07}}</ref>
* '''Means-test benefits'''. A phase out of Social Security benefits for those who already have income over $48,000/year ($4,000/month) would eliminate over 20% of the funding gap. This is not very popular, with only 31% of surveyed households favoring it.<ref name="nasi.org">{{cite report | title=National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI) survey | publisher=National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI) | url=http://www.nasi.org/ | access-date=October 15, 2013}}</ref>
* '''Change the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA)'''. Several proposals have been discussed. Effects of COLA reductions would be cumulative over time and would affect some groups more than others. Poverty rates would increase.<ref>{{Cite web | url=https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/policybriefs/pb2008-03.html | title=Distributional Effects of Reducing the Cost-of-Living Adjustments | website=Social Security Administration Research, Statistics, and Policy Analysis | language=en | access-date=2020-01-26}}</ref>
* '''Reduce benefits for new retirees'''. If Social Security benefits were reduced by 3% to 5% for new retirees, about 18% to 30% percent of the funding gap would be eliminated.{{Citation needed|date=January 2014}}
* '''Average in more working years'''. Social Security benefits are now based on an average of a worker's 35 highest paid annual salaries with zeros averaged in if there are fewer than 35 years of covered wages. The averaging period could be increased to 38 or 40 years, which could potentially reduce the deficit by 10% to 20%, respectively.{{Citation needed|date=January 2014}}
* '''Require all newly hired people to join Social Security'''. Over 90% of all workers already pay FICA and SECA taxes, so there is not much to gain by this. There would be an early increase in Social Security income that would be partially offset later by the benefits they might collect when they retire.{{Citation needed|date=January 2014}}