Editing Recession (section)

===United States===

{{Main|List of recessions in the United States}}
[[File:Recessions in the United States — 1930 through 2021.png|thumb|Recessions in the United States – 1930 through 2021|350px]]
[[File:FFR treasuries.webp|thumb|350px|right|[[Inverted yield curve]]s correlation to recessions
{{legend-line|#F5A623 solid 3px|[[Mortgage loan|30 year mortgage average]]}}
{{legend-line|#F8E71C solid 3px|[[treasury bond|30 Year Treasury Bond]]}}
{{legend-line|#000000 solid 3px|10 Year Treasury Bond}}
{{legend-line|#9013FE solid 3px|2 Year Treasury Bond}}
{{legend-line|#4A90E2 solid 3px|3 month Treasury Bond}}
{{legend-line|#D0021B solid 4px|Effective Federal Funds Rate}}
{{legend-line|#E786F9 solid 4px|[[United States Consumer Price Index|CPI inflation]] year/year}}
{{color box|lightgrey}} [[List of recessions in the United States|Recessions]]
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According to economists, since 1854, the U.S. has encountered 32 cycles of expansions and contractions, with an average of 17 months of contraction and 38 months of expansion.<ref name="nber.org" /> From 1980 to 2018 there were only eight periods of negative economic growth over one fiscal quarter or more,<ref name="autogenerated1">{{cite web|url=https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls|title=Percent change from preceding period|publisher=U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)|access-date=26 November 2018|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180814045606/https://www.bea.gov/national/xls/gdpchg.xls|archive-date=14 August 2018|url-status=dead}}</ref> and four periods considered recessions:
* [[Early 1980s recession|July 1981 – November 1982]]: 15 months
* [[Early 1990s recession|July 1990 – March 1991]]: 8 months
* [[Early 2000s recession|March 2001 – November 2001]]: 8 months
* [[Great Recession|December 2007 – June 2009]]: 18 months<ref>{{cite news |last=Isidore |first=Chris |url=https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/index.htm?postversion=2008120112 |title=It's official: Recession since Dec. '07 |publisher=CNN |date=1 December 2008 |access-date=29 January 2011 |archive-date=14 August 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210814113557/https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/index.htm?postversion=2008120112 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8332773.stm|title= US economy out of recession|date=29 October 2009|publisher=BBC News – Business|access-date=6 February 2010|archive-date=28 July 2020|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200728104138/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8332773.stm|url-status=live}}</ref>

For the last three of these recessions, the NBER decision has approximately conformed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. While the 2001 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded by two quarters of alternating decline and weak growth.<ref name="autogenerated1" />

Since then, the NBER has also declared a 2-month [[COVID-19 recession]] for February 2020 – April 2020.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021|title=Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcement July 19, 2021|website=NBER|date=19 July 2021 |access-date=19 July 2021|archive-date=26 April 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220426170943/https://www.nber.org/news/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcement-july-19-2021|url-status=live}}</ref>

NBER has sometimes declared a recession before a second quarter of GDP shrinkage has been reported, but beginnings and endings can also be declared over a year after they are reckoned to have occurred. In 1947, NBER did not declare a recession despite two quarters of declining GDP, due to strong economic activity reported for employment, industrial production, and consumer spending.<ref>{{cite news |title=What two negative GDP quarters means for 'recession' – and our politics |first=Aaron |last=Blake |date=July 28, 2022 |newspaper=[[The Washington Post]]}}</ref>

An administration generally gets credit or blame for the state of the economy during its time in office;<ref>{{Cite web |url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7215351.stm |title=Economy puts Republicans at risk |date=29 January 2008 |publisher=BBC |access-date=8 March 2008 |archive-date=2 February 2008 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080202054357/http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7215351.stm |url-status=live }}</ref> this state of affairs has caused disagreements about how particular recessions actually started.<ref>[http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/press/2003/fs_bushrecession073103.pdf The Bush Recession] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110204065202/http://budget.senate.gov/democratic/press/2003/fs_bushrecession073103.pdf |date=4 February 2011 }} Prepared by: Democratic staff, [[Senate Budget Committee]], 31 July 2003</ref>

For example, the [[early 1980s recession|1981 recession]] is thought to have been caused by the tight-money policy adopted by [[Paul Volcker]], chairman of the [[Federal Reserve Board of Governors|Federal Reserve Board]], before [[Ronald Reagan]] took office. Reagan supported that policy. Economist [[Walter Heller]], chairman of the [[Council of Economic Advisers]] in the 1960s, said that "I call it a Reagan-Volcker-Carter recession."<ref>{{Cite magazine |url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,922689-2,00.html |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080423212123/http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,922689-2,00.html |url-status=dead |archive-date=23 April 2008 |title=Ready for a Real Downer |date=23 November 1981 |magazine=Time |first=George J.|last=Church}}</ref>