Editing Broken windows theory (section)

===Other factors===
Several studies have argued that many of the apparent successes of broken windows policing (such as New York City in the 1990s) were the result of other factors.<ref name= "Order Maintenance Reconsidered">{{Cite journal |last=Thacher |first=David |year=2004 |url=http://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=7152&context=jclc |title=Order Maintenance Reconsidered: Moving beyond Strong Causal Reasoning |format=PDF |journal=Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology |volume=94 |issue=2 |pages=381–414 |doi=10.2307/3491374 |jstor=3491374 |access-date=2016-01-15 |archive-date=2018-07-19 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180719120804/https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=7152&context=jclc |url-status=live }}</ref> They claim that the "broken windows theory" closely relates [[correlation]] with [[causality]]: reasoning prone to [[correlation does not imply causation|fallacy]]. David Thacher, assistant professor of public policy and urban planning at the [[University of Michigan]], stated in a 2004 paper:<ref name= "Order Maintenance Reconsidered" />
{{blockquote|[S]ocial science has not been kind to the broken windows theory. A number of scholars reanalyzed the initial studies that appeared to support it.... Others pressed forward with new, more sophisticated studies of the relationship between disorder and crime. The most prominent among them concluded that the relationship between disorder and serious crime is modest, and even that relationship is largely an artifact of more fundamental social forces.}}

C. R. Sridhar, in his article in the ''[[Economic and Political Weekly]]'', also challenges the theory behind broken windows policing and the idea that the policies of [[William Bratton]] and the [[New York Police Department]] was the cause of the decrease of crime rates in [[New York City]].<ref name="Sridhar 1841–43"/> The policy targeted people in areas with a significant amount of physical disorder and there appeared to be a causal relationship between the adoption of broken windows policing and the decrease in crime rate. Sridhar, however, discusses other trends (such as New York City's economic boom in the late 1990s) that created a "[[perfect storm]]" that contributed to the decrease of crime rate much more significantly than the application of the broken windows policy. Sridhar also compares this decrease in crime rate with other major cities that adopted various policies and determined that the broken windows policy is not as effective.

In a 2007 study called "Reefer Madness" in the journal ''Criminology and Public Policy'', Harcourt and Ludwig found further evidence confirming that [[regression toward the mean|mean reversion]] fully explained the changes in crime rates in the different precincts in New York in the 1990s.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Harcourt |first1=Bernard |last2=Ludwig |first2=Jens |s2cid=19165766 |year=2007 |title=Reefer Madness: Broken Windows Policing and Misdemeanor Marijuana Arrests in New York City, 1989–2000 |url=http://www3.law.columbia.edu/bharcourt/documents/marijuana-arrests.pdf |journal=Criminology and Public Policy |volume=6 |pages=165–182 |via=Columbia.edu |doi=10.1111/j.1745-9133.2007.00427.x |access-date=2017-01-27 |archive-date=2017-02-02 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170202032740/http://www3.law.columbia.edu/bharcourt/documents/marijuana-arrests.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> Further alternative explanations that have been put forward include the waning of the [[crack epidemic (United States)|crack epidemic]],<ref name="SLATE1">{{cite web |url=http://www.slate.com/id/2141424/ |last=Metcalf |first=Stephen |title=The Giuliani Presidency? A new documentary makes the case against the outsized mayor |access-date=2007-09-03 |date=2006-05-11 |website=Slate |archive-date=2007-09-30 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070930230204/http://www.slate.com/id/2141424/ |url-status=live }}</ref> unrelated growth in the prison population by the [[Rockefeller drug laws]],<ref name ="SLATE1"/> and that the number of males from 16 to 24 was dropping regardless of the shape of the US [[population pyramid]].<ref name= "FREAK">{{cite book |last1=Levitt |first1=Steven D. |author1-link=Steven Levitt |first2=Stephen J |last2=Dubner |author2-link=Stephen J. Dubner |title=Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything |publisher=HarperCollins |year=2005 |location=New York |isbn=978-0-06-073132-8 |title-link=Freakonomics}}</ref>

It has also been argued that rates of major crimes also dropped in many other US cities during the 1990s, both those that had adopted broken windows policing and those that had not.<ref>{{Citation |first=Bernard E |last=Harcourt |title=Illusion of Order: The False Promise of Broken Windows Policing |publisher=Harvard |year=2001 |isbn=978-0-674-01590-6}}.</ref> It is thought that this is due to the exposure of children to environmental lead, which leads to loss of impulse control and, when they reach young adulthood, criminal acts. There appears to be a correlation between a 25-year lag between the addition and removal of lead from paint and gasoline and rises and falls in murder arrests.<ref>[http://www.ricknevin.com/uploads/Lucifer_Curves_2-22-15.pdf Lucifer Curves] {{webarchive |url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150225100935/http://www.ricknevin.com/uploads/Lucifer_Curves_2-22-15.pdf |date=February 25, 2015 }}, Rick Nevin, 22 Feb 2015</ref><ref>[https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline America's Real Criminal Element: Lead] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140512040918/https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/01/lead-crime-link-gasoline |date=2014-05-12 }}, ''Mother Jones'', January/February 2013 Issue, Kevin Drum</ref>

In his book, Baltimore criminologist Ralph B. Taylor argues that fixing windows is only a partial and short-term solution. His data supports a materialist view: changes in physical decay, superficial social disorder, and racial composition do not lead to higher crime, but economic decline does. He contends that the example shows that real, long-term reductions in crime require that urban politicians, businesses, and community leaders work together to improve the economic fortunes of residents in high-crime areas.<ref>{{Cite book |url=https://books.google.com/books?id=ildPAAAAMAAJ |title=Breaking Away from Broken Windows: Baltimore Neighborhoods and the Nationwide Fight Against Crime, Grime, Fear, and Decline |isbn=9780813397580 |last1=Taylor |first1=Ralph B. |year=2001 |publisher=Westview Press}}</ref>

In 2015, Northeastern University assistant professor Daniel T. O'Brien criticised the broken theory model. Using his [[Big data|Big Data]] based research model, he argues that the broken window model fails to capture the origins of crime in a neighbourhood. He concludes that crime comes from the [[social dynamics]] of communities and private spaces and spills into public spaces.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://news.northeastern.edu/2015/09/03/new-research-challenges-broken-windows-theory-of-crime-prediction/ |title=New research challenges 'broken windows theory' of crime prediction |date=3 September 2015 |access-date=7 June 2022 |archive-date=13 August 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220813001858/https://news.northeastern.edu/2015/09/03/new-research-challenges-broken-windows-theory-of-crime-prediction/ |url-status=live }}</ref>