Editing Demographics of Eritrea (section)

== Vital statistics ==

===Demographic and Health Surveys===
The [[United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs]] (UN DESA) Population Division published its ''UN DESA 2019 Revision'' (''World Population Prospects 2019'') data release<ref name="UNDESA2019_data_sources" /> based on several data samples, including the 1995 and 2002 [[Demographic and Health Surveys]] (1995 DHS, 2002 DHS) and the 2010 ''Population and Health Survey'' (2010 PHS), since a full [[census]] had not been carried out in Eritrea {{as of|2010|lc=yes}}.<ref name="PHS2010_full" />{{rp|31}}

The 1995 DHS survey was carried out in Eritrea by the Eritrean National Statistics Office (NSO) and Macro International Inc., collecting data by interviewing 5,054 women aged 15–49 and 1,114 men aged 15–59, chosen to be a statistically representative sample, from September 1995 to January 1996.<ref name="DHS1995_full" />

The 2002 DHS survey was carried out by the NSO (renamed as the ''National Statistics and Evaluation Office''), with support from the [[United States Agency for International Development]] (USAID) and ORC Macro, collecting data with interviews of 8,754 women in Eritrea in the 15–49 age range, in what was considered to be a statistically representative sample of the full population.<ref name="DHS2002_full" /> Key findings of the survey included a drop from 1995 to 2002 of fertility from 6.1 to 4.8 children per woman; improved knowledge of [[contraception]]; a drop in post-neonatal mortality; improved antenatal care; a doubling of the full vaccination rate for 12–23 month old babies from 41 to 76 percent; 38 percent of children under five years old were chronically malnourished or stunted; and near universal knowledge of [[HIV]] and [[AIDS]].<ref name="DHS2002_key_findings" />

In 2010, the NSO, supported by the [[Fafo Foundation|Fafo]] Institute for Applied International Studies, published a ''Population and Health Survey'' (EPHS2010), based on a survey covering 34,423 households by choosing 900 areas around Eritrea, 525 rural and 375 urban, and randomly selecting 40 households in each cluster. Interviews aimed to include all women aged 15–49 and men aged 15–59 who were either residents or visitors in any selected household on the night preceding the interview. Key findings compared to the 1995 DHS survey included a decrease in early childhood mortality, increased children's vaccination, decreased maternal death, and a "wide gap between knowledge and use of [[family planning]]".<ref name="PHS2010_full" />

===Fertility and mortality===
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: right;"
|-
! width="70pt"|Period
! width="70pt"|Live births per 5 years<ref name="UNDESA2019_births" />
! width="70pt"|Deaths per 5 years<ref name="UNDESA2019_mortality" />
! width="70pt"|Natural change per 5 years
! width="70pt"|CBR*<ref name="UNDESA2019_CBR" />
! width="70pt"|CDR*<ref name="UNDESA2019_CDR" />
! width="70pt"|NC*<ref name="UNDESA2019_NatChange" />
! width="70pt"|TFR*<ref name="UNDESA2019_TFR" />
! width="70pt"|IMR*<ref name="UNDESA2019_IMR" />
|-
| 1950–1955 || 204 000|| 128 000|| 76 000|| 47.5|| 29.7 ||17.7|| 6.96|| 199
|-
| 1955–1960 || 233 000|| 128 000|| 105 000||48.8|| 26.8 ||22.0|| 6.96|| 181
|-
| 1960–1965 || 261 000|| 127 000|| 134 000||48.4|| 23.6 ||24.8|| 6.82||160
|-
| 1965–1970 || 291 000|| 133 000|| 158 000||47.4|| 21.7 || 25.7 || 6.70||148
|-
| 1970–1975 || 324 000|| 140 000|| 184 000||46.0|| 19.8 || 26.2||6.62||140
|-
| 1975–1980 || 366 000|| 148 000|| 218 000||45.3|| 18.3 || 27.9|| 6.62|| 132
|-
| 1980–1985 || 422 000|| 161 000|| 261 000||45.2|| 17.3 ||27.7|| 6.70|| 121
|-
| 1985–1990 || 469 000|| 174 000|| 295 000||44.0|| 16.4 || 23.3|| 6.6|| 112
|-
| 1990–1995 || 428 000|| 168 000|| 260 000||38.4|| 15.1 ||19.4|| 6.3||94.4
|-
| 1995–2000 || 359 000|| 140 000|| 219 000||31.9|| 12.5 ||24.0|| 5.6||71.1
|-
| 2000–2005 || 442 000|| 135 000|| 307 000||34.6|| 10.6 ||28.3|| 5.1||59.4
|-
| 2005–2010 || 564 000|| 140 000|| 424 000||37.6|| 9.4 ||28.3|| 4.8||51.6
|-
| 2010–2015 || 552 000|| 134 000|| 418 000||33.9|| 8.2 ||25.7|| 4.35||45.0
|-
| 2015–2020 || 528 000|| 125 000|| 403 000||30.6|| 7.2 ||23.4|| 4.1|| 34.7
|-
|align="left" colspan="9" | * <small>Values per year: CBR = crude birth rate (per 1000); CDR = crude death rate (per 1000); NC = natural change (per 1000); IMR = infant mortality rate per 1000 births; TFR = total fertility rate (number of children per woman)</small>
|}

====Urban/rural and geographical distribution====
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) (Wanted Fertility Rate) and Crude Birth Rate (CBR) (1995 DHS, Table 3.1;<ref name="DHS1995_full" /> 2002 DHS, Table 4.1;<ref name="DHS2002_full" /><ref>{{cite web|url=http://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/dhs#_r=&collection=&country=&dtype=&from=1890&page=5&ps=&sk=&sort_by=nation&sort_order=&to=2014&topic=&view=s&vk=|title=MEASURE DHS: Demographic and Health Surveys|access-date=31 May 2015}}</ref>)
{| class="wikitable"
|-
! rowspan=2| Year
! colspan=2| Total
! colspan=2| Urban
! colspan=2| Rural
|-
! CBR !! TFR
! CBR !! TFR
! CBR !! TFR
|-
| 1995
| style="text-align:right;"| 37.5
| style="text-align:right;"| 6.10
| style="text-align:right;"| 29.3
| style="text-align:right;"| 4.23
| style="text-align:right;"| 40.3
| style="text-align:right;"| 6.99
|-
| 2002
| style="text-align:right;"| 32
| style="text-align:right;"| 4.8
| style="text-align:right;"| 28
| style="text-align:right;"| 3.5
| style="text-align:right;"| 35
| style="text-align:right;"| 5.7
|-
|}

Fertility geographical distribution as of 2010 (PHS, Table 4–2):<ref name="PHS2010_full" />

{| class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! style="width:100pt;"| Zoba
! style="width:100pt;"| Total fertility rate
! style="width:100pt;"| Mean number of children ever born to women age 40–49
! style="width:100pt;"| Percentage of women age 15-49 currently pregnant
|-
| Debubawi Keih Bahri || 4.2 || 5.4 || 7.6
|-
| Maekel || 3.4 || 4.1 || 5.5
|-
| Semenawi Keih Bahri || 5.4 || 5.9 || 8.1
|-
| Anseba || 5.7 || 6.3 || 8.2
|-
| Gash-Barka || 5.4 || 5.6 || 8.0
|-
| Debub || 5.0 || 6.0 || 7.9
|}

=== Life expectancy ===
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center;"
!Period
!Life expectancy in <br /> Years<ref name="UNDESA2019_LifeExpect" />
|-
|1950–1955
|34.08
|-
|1955–1960
|{{increase}} 36.68
|-
|1960–1965
|{{increase}} 40.08
|-
|1965–1970
|{{increase}} 42.15
|-
|1970–1975
|{{increase}} 44.11
|-
|1975–1980
|{{increase}} 45.91
|-
|1980–1985
|{{increase}} 47.33
|-
|1985–1990
|{{increase}} 48.69
|-
|1990–1995
|{{increase}} 50.77
|-
|1995–2000
|{{increase}} 53.97
|-
|2000–2005
|{{increase}} 56.70
|-
|2005–2010
|{{increase}} 60.71
|-
|2010–2015
|{{increase}} 63.42
|-
|2015–2020
|{{increase}} 65.74
|}

===Migration===
{{image frame
|content={{Graph:Chart
|type= line
|xType=date
|linewidth=1 
|showSymbols= 
|width= 
|colors= #FF8317,#BFB000,#001E00,#87CEEB,#000000
|showValues=
|xAxisTitle= Final year of 5-year period
|xAxisAngle= -90
|x= 1955,1960,1965,1970,1975,1980,1985,1990,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,2020
|yAxisTitle= Net migrants in thousands
|yAxisMin = 
|yScaleType =
|yAxisFormat = 
|legend=Eritrean net migration
|y1Title=2019
|y1=0.997, 3, 6.997, 4.999, 10, 10, 10, -40.0, -314.772, -129.998, 227.29, -80.009, -246, -199.29
|y2Title=2015
|y2=0.997, 3, 6.997, 4.999, 10, 10, 10, -40, -400.002, -70, 110.001, -160.001, -160.001
|y3Title=2010
|y3=0.175, 2.212, 6.356, 2.91, 7.773, 53.231, 49.2, -3.8, -358.661, -8.887, 229.376, 55
|yGrid=
|xGrid=
}}
|width=420
|caption=Eritrean migration (immigrants minus emigrants; [[United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs|UN DESA]] Revisions 2010 to 2019). ''Negative'' numbers indicate more ''emigration'' than immigration; ''positive'' numbers indicate more ''immigration''. Sources: [[United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs]] (UN DESA) Population Division: (Revisions 2012<ref name="UNDESA2012_MIGR_NET_NUMBERS" /> and 2017 are almost identical to Revisions 2010 and 2015, respectively.<ref name="UNDESA2017_MIGR_NET_NUMBERS" />)
* Revision 2010<ref name="UNDESA2010_MIGR_NET_NUMBERS" />
* Revision 2015<ref name="UNDESA2015_MIGR_NET_NUMBERS" />
* Revision 2019<ref name="UNDESA2019_MIGR_NET_NUMBERS" />
|border=no
}}
In 2015, there was a major outflow of emigrants from Eritrea. ''[[The Guardian]]'' attributed the emigration to Eritrea being "a totalitarian state where most citizens fear arrest at any moment and dare not speak to their neighbours, gather in groups or linger long outside their homes", with a major factor being the conditions and long durations of [[Eritrean Army#National service|conscription in the Eritrean Army]].<ref name="Guardian_not_at_war_fled" /> At the end of 2018, the [[United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees]] (UNHCR) estimated that about 507,300 Eritreans were refugees who had fled Eritrea.<ref name="HRW_ER_2019" /> Factors corresponding to emigration include the "lack of political, religious and social freedom", economic reasons and indefinite military service. Young people choosing to flee Eritrea often keep their plans secret from their families in order to decrease their families' stress and risk of being fined or imprisoned. Payment to people smugglers is typically made when a refugee arrives in Libya and provides the smugglers with a telephone number of a diaspora contact who is expected to pay.<ref name="Conversation_ER_why_emigrate" /> Several refugees given educational opportunities while residing in refugee camps in Ethiopia felt that they lacked long-term life opportunities beyond obtaining academic degrees, motivating them to attempt further emigration to Europe.<ref name="Conversation_ER_why_risky_migration" />

During the first four half decades of the twenty-first century, [[United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs|UN DESA]] Population Division, in its ''2019 Revision'' of ''World Population Prospects'', estimated that Eritrea had 227 thousand more immigrants than emigrants during 2000–2005 (more people arrived than left), and had net outflows afterwards, with 80 thousand net emigrants during 2005–2010, 246 thousand during 2010–2015 and 199 thousand during 2015–2020.<ref name="UNDESA_migration_worldwide_2019" /> 
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