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===Post-2000 water supply === {{See also|Southwestern North American megadrought}} {{rquote|right|[The Colorado is] a 'deficit' river, as if the river were somehow at fault for its overuse.|[[Marc Reisner]], in ''[[Cadillac Desert]]''{{sfn|Reisner|p=121|1993}}}} When the Colorado River Compact was drafted in the 1920s, it was based on barely 30 years of streamflow records that suggested an average annual flow of {{convert|17.5|e6acre.ft|km3}} past Lee's Ferry.{{sfn|Reisner|p=126|1993}} Modern studies of [[tree ring]]s revealed that those three decades were probably the wettest in the past 500 to 1,200 years and that the natural long-term annual flow past Lee's Ferry is probably closer to {{convert|13.5|e6acre.ft|km3}},<ref>{{cite journal |author1=Stahle, David W. |author2=Fye, Falko K. |author3=Therrell, Matthew D. |title=Interannual to Decadal Climate and Streamflow Variability Estimated from Tree Rings |doi=10.1016/S1571-0866(03)01023-6 |journal=Developments in Quaternary Science |date=2003 |volume=1 |pages=491β504 |series=Developments in Quaternary Sciences |bibcode=2003DevQS...1..491S |isbn=9780444514707}}</ref>{{refn|The discrepancy between the natural flow at Lee's Ferry (13.5 million acre-feet or 16.65 km<sup>3</sup>) and the gauged flow between 1922 and 2020 (10.58 million acre-feet or 13.05 km<sup>3</sup>)<ref name="LeesFerryMonthly"/> is mostly due to water diversions above Lee's Ferry and evaporation from reservoirs, especially Lake Powell.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.usbr.gov/uc/library/envdocs/reports/crs/pdfs/cul2006-2010prov.pdf |title=Upper Colorado River Basin Consumptive Uses and Losses Report 2006-2010 |publisher=U.S. Bureau of Reclamation |date=August 2012 |access-date=June 29, 2013 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121010175929/http://www.usbr.gov/uc/library/envdocs/reports/crs/pdfs/cul2006-2010prov.pdf |archive-date=October 10, 2012}}</ref>|group=n}} with a natural flow at the mouth around {{convert|16.3|e6acre.ft|km3}}.<ref name="Nowak">{{cite web |author=Nowak, Kenneth C. |title=Stochastic Streamflow Simulation at Interdecadal Time Scales and Implications to Water Resources Management in the Colorado River Basin |publisher=University of Colorado |work=Center for Advanced Decision Support for Water and Environmental Systems |url=http://cadswes.colorado.edu/sites/default/files/PDF/Theses-PhD/Nowak-PhD.pdf |date=April 2, 2012 |page=114 |access-date=July 11, 2013 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140501143218/http://cadswes.colorado.edu/sites/default/files/PDF/Theses-PhD/Nowak-PhD.pdf |archive-date=May 1, 2014}}</ref> This has resulted in more water being allocated to river users than actually exists in the Colorado.<ref name="Gelt">{{cite journal |author=Gelt, Joe |url=http://worldcat.org/arcviewer/2/WCA/2009/12/14/H1260824596711/viewer/file2.html |title=Sharing Colorado River Water: History, Public Policy and the Colorado River Compact |journal=Arroyo |publisher=University of Arizona, Water Resources Research Center |volume=10 |date=August 1997 |issue=1 |access-date=February 25, 2014 |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819071625/http://worldcat.org/arcviewer/2/WCA/2009/12/14/H1260824596711/viewer/file2.html |url-status=live }}</ref> Droughts have exacerbated the issue of water over-allocation.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.riverguides.org/Confluence/27/27DroughtWeisheit.pdf |title=Persistent Drought in the Colorado River Basin |author=Weisheit, John |work=Confluence |volume=27 |access-date=May 15, 2012 |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819071530/http://www.riverguides.org/Confluence/27/27DroughtWeisheit.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/policy/pdf/Paleo_Arc.pdf |title=Paleoenvironmental Archives as a source of Climate Information for Natural Resource Management: An Example from Tree Rings and Colorado Water Management |publisher=U.S. Forest Service |author1=Woodhouse, Connie |author-link1=Connie Woodhouse |author2=Webb, Robert S. |author3=Lukas, Jeff |access-date=May 19, 2012 |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819071545/https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/cirmount/policy/pdf/Paleo_Arc.pdf |url-status=live }}</ref> [[File:Lake Mead October 2010.jpg|thumb|left|alt=View of a reservoir where the water level has dropped, showing white deposits on the surrounding mountains|Lake Mead in 2010, showing the "bathtub ring" left behind by low water levels]] The most severe drought on record, the [[southwestern North American megadrought]], began in the early 21st century, in which the river basin has produced above-average runoff in only five years between 2000 and 2021.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html |title=Glen Canyon Dam Water Operations |publisher=U.S. Bureau of Reclamation |year=2022 |access-date=May 18, 2022 |archive-date=September 28, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200928134447/https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/gcd.html |url-status=live }}</ref> The region is experiencing a warming trend, which is accompanied by earlier snowmelt, lower precipitation and greater [[evapotranspiration]]. A 2004 study showed that a 1β6 percent decrease of precipitation would lead to runoff declining by as much as 18 percent by 2050.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/docs/Hoerling%20v2%20WWA%20Front%20Range%20Water.pdf |author1=Hoerling, Martin |author2=Eischeid, Jon |title=Outlook for Water in the West at 2050 |publisher=Western Water Assessment |work=NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Climate Change Workshop |date=November 17, 2006 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100609222623/http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/docs/Hoerling%20v2%20WWA%20Front%20Range%20Water.pdf |archive-date=June 9, 2010}}</ref> Since 2000, reservoir levels have fluctuated greatly from year to year, but have experienced a steady long-term decline.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.crwcd.org/media/uploads/CO_River_Uncertain_Future.pdf |title=The Colorado River's Uncertain Future: How Climate Change May Affect Future Planning Decisions on the Colorado River |publisher=Colorado River Water Conservation District |author=Kuhn, Eric |work=CRWCD 49th Annual Convention |date=January 26, 2007 |access-date=February 21, 2012 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111201024238/http://www.crwcd.org/media/uploads/CO_River_Uncertain_Future.pdf |archive-date=December 1, 2011}}</ref> The particularly dry spell between 2000 and 2004 brought Lake Powell to just a third of capacity in 2005, the lowest level on record since initial filling in 1969.<ref>{{cite web |author=Vernieu-Presenter, William S. |url=http://www.gcrg.org/docs/gtslib/vernieu-05.pdf |title=Current Status and Trends of Lake Powell and Glen Canyon Dam Release Water Quality |publisher=Grand Canyon River Guides |work=U.S. Geological Survey, Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center |year=2005 |access-date=May 15, 2012 |archive-date=August 19, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210819071038/http://www.gcrg.org/docs/gtslib/vernieu-05.pdf |url-status=dead}}</ref> In late 2010, Lake Mead was approaching the "drought trigger" elevation of {{convert|1075|ft|m}}, at which water supplies to Arizona and Nevada would be reduced in accordance with the Colorado River Compact.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/10/19/20101019lake-mead-water-level-new-historic-low.html |author=McKinnon, Shaun |title=Lake Mead Sinks to a New Historic Low: If Lake Falls 8 More Feet, Thirsty Ariz. Could Experience Water Restrictions |newspaper=The Arizona Republic |location=Phoenix, Arizona |date=October 19, 2010 |access-date=September 6, 2012 |archive-date=January 17, 2013 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130117144207/http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/10/19/20101019lake-mead-water-level-new-historic-low.html?nclick_check=1 |url-status=live }}</ref> Due to Arizona and Nevada's water rights being junior to California's, their allocations can legally be cut to zero before any reductions are made on the California side.<ref name="Gelt"/><ref>{{cite news |author=Hiltzik, Michael |title=Water war bubbling up between California and Arizona |url=http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-20140620-column.html#page=1 |work=Los Angeles Times |date=2014-06-20 |access-date=2014-09-23 |archive-date=June 24, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210624134813/https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-20140620-column.html#page=1 |url-status=live }}</ref> A wet winter in 2011 temporarily raised lake levels,<ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/04/18/20110418lake-mead-replenished-by-snowfall.html |author=McKinnon, Shaun |title=Lake Mead Replenished by Snowfall |work=azcentral.com |date=April 19, 2011 |access-date=February 21, 2012 |archive-date=January 17, 2013 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20130117112702/http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2011/04/18/20110418lake-mead-replenished-by-snowfall.html?nclick_check=1 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/aug/17/lake-meads-water-level-rises/ |title=Lake Mead's water level rises 30 feet after wet winter |author=Shine, Conor |newspaper=Las Vegas Sun |date=August 17, 2011 |access-date=February 21, 2012 |archive-date=July 25, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160725022127/http://lasvegassun.com/news/2011/aug/17/lake-meads-water-level-rises/ |url-status=live }}</ref> but dry conditions returned in the next two years.<ref>{{cite news |author=Perry, Tony |title=As Colorado River drought worsens, water officials parley |work=Los Angeles Times |date=May 27, 2013 |url=https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-xpm-2013-may-27-la-me-ln-as-drought-worsens-along-colorado-river-water-officials-discuss-moving-forward-20130527-story.html |access-date=July 9, 2013 |archive-date=July 24, 2013 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130724233655/http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/27/local/la-me-ln-as-drought-worsens-along-colorado-river-water-officials-discuss-moving-forward-20130527 |url-status=live }}</ref> In 2014, the Bureau of Reclamation cut releases from Lake Powell by 10 percent βthe first such reduction since the 1960s, when Lake Powell was being filled for the first time.<ref>{{cite news |author=Johnson, Terrell |title=Dwindling Colorado River Forces First-Ever Cuts in Lake Powell Water Releases |url=http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/drought-lake-powell-lake-mead-climate-change-20130818 |work=The Weather Channel |date=August 20, 2013 |access-date=January 16, 2014 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140113020305/http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/drought-lake-powell-lake-mead-climate-change-20130818 |archive-date=January 13, 2014}}</ref> This resulted in Lake Mead dropping to its lowest recorded level since 1937, when it was first being filled.<ref>{{cite news |author=Brean, Henry |title=Lake Mead sinks to a record low |work=Las Vegas Review-Journal |url=http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nevada/lake-mead-sinks-record-low |date=2014-07-11 |access-date=2014-10-02 |archive-date=January 3, 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150103032005/http://www.reviewjournal.com/news/nevada/lake-mead-sinks-record-low |url-status=live }}</ref> Water year 2018 had a much lower-than-average snowpack.<ref>{{cite news |url=http://knau.org/post/colorado-river-water-shortage-could-be-declared-2020 |title=Colorado River Water Shortage Could be Declared in 2020 |author=Sevigny, Melissa |work=KNAU |date=2018-05-17 |access-date=2018-05-24 |archive-date=August 18, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210818042930/https://www.knau.org/post/colorado-river-water-shortage-could-be-declared-2020 |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.ecowatch.com/colorado-river-water-shortage-2569729456.html |title=Unprecedented Colorado River Water Shortage Could Be Declared in 2020 |author=Chow, Lorraine |work=EcoWatch |date=2018-05-17 |access-date=2018-05-24 |archive-date=May 24, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200524233910/https://www.ecowatch.com/colorado-river-water-shortage-2569729456.html |url-status=live }}</ref> In July 2021, after two more extremely dry winters, Lake Powell fell below the previous low set in 2005. In response, the Bureau of Reclamation began releasing water from upstream reservoirs in order to keep Powell above the minimum level for [[hydropower]] generation.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2021/07/22/lake-powell-level-about/ |title=Lake Powell level about to hit a historic low as West's water crisis deepens |author=Brian Maffly |work=Salt Lake Tribune |date=2021-07-22 |access-date=July 31, 2021 |archive-date=August 18, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210818095410/https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2021/07/22/lake-powell-level-about/ |url-status=live }}</ref><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.cpr.org/2021/07/24/lake-powell-lowest-water-level-on-record-heres-what-that-means-for-colorado-and-states-that-rely-on-it/ |title=Lake Powell Just Hit Its Lowest Level On Record. Here's What That Means For Colorado And States That Rely On It |work=Colorado Public Radio |author=Michael Elizabeth Sakas |date=2021-07-24 |access-date=July 31, 2021 |archive-date=August 15, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210815042611/https://www.cpr.org/2021/07/24/lake-powell-lowest-water-level-on-record-heres-what-that-means-for-colorado-and-states-that-rely-on-it/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Lake Mead fell below the {{convert|1075|ft|m|adj=on}} level expected to trigger federally mandated cuts to Arizona and Nevada's water supplies for the first time in history, and is expected to continue declining into 2022.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/13/hoover-dam-lake-mead-severe-drought-us-west |title=Severe drought threatens Hoover dam reservoir β and water for US west |work=The Guardian |author=Oliver Milman |date=2021-07-13 |access-date=July 31, 2021 |archive-date=August 25, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210825214104/https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jul/13/hoover-dam-lake-mead-severe-drought-us-west |url-status=live }}</ref> On August 16, 2021, the Bureau of Reclamation released the Colorado River Basin August 2021 24-Month Study, and for the first time declared a shortage and that because of "ongoing historic drought and low runoff conditions in the Colorado River Basin, downstream releases from Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam will be reduced in 2022 due to declining reservoir levels."<ref name="Aug16">{{cite web |url=https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/3950 |title=Reclamation announces 2022 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead |date=Aug 16, 2021 |website=usbr.gov |publisher=[[United States Bureau of Reclamation]] |access-date=2021-08-19 |archive-date=August 17, 2021 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20210817005912/https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/%23/news-release/3950 |url-status=live }}</ref> The Lower Basin reductions will reduce the annual apportionments β Arizona's by 18 percent, Nevada's by 7 percent, and Mexico's by 5 percent.<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/overnight-energy-federal-government-announces-first-ever-water-shortage-in-lake-mead-colorado-river-biden-administration-releases-guidance-limiting-international-financing-for-fossil-fuels-biden-administration-to-review-federal-coal-leasing/ar-AANocbi |title=OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Federal government announces first-ever water shortage in Lake Mead, Colorado River |Biden administration releases guidance limiting international financing for fossil fuels |Biden administration to review federal coal leasing |last=Budryk |first=Zack |date=Aug 17, 2021 |website=msn.com |publisher=[[MSN]] |access-date=2021-08-19 |archive-date=August 28, 2021 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20210828075952/https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/overnight-energy-federal-government-announces-first-ever-water-shortage-in-lake-mead-colorado-river-biden-administration-releases-guidance-limiting-international-financing-for-fossil-fuels-biden-administration-to-review-federal-coal-leasing/ar-AANocbi |url-status=live }}</ref> On June 14, 2022, Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton told the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural resources that additional cuts of 2β4 million acre-feet were required to stabilize reservoir levels in 2023. Touton warned that if states were unable to negotiate the requisite cuts the Interior department may use its legal authority to cut releases.<ref>{{cite web |title=Full Committee Hearing To Examine Short And Long Term Solutions To Extreme Drought In The Western U.S. |url=https://www.energy.senate.gov/hearings/2022/6/full-committee-hearing-to-examine-short-and-long-term-solutions-to-extreme-drought-in-the-western-u-s |website=Senate Committee on Energy and Natural resources |date=June 14, 2022 |publisher=United States Senate |access-date=16 December 2022 |archive-date=December 16, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221216053044/https://www.energy.senate.gov/hearings/2022/6/full-committee-hearing-to-examine-short-and-long-term-solutions-to-extreme-drought-in-the-western-u-s |url-status=live }}</ref> When the states were unable to come to an agreement about how to share the proposed cuts, Reclamation began the legal steps to unilaterally reduce releases from Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams in 2023.<ref name="Reuters">{{cite news |last1=Trotta |first1=Daniel |title=U.S. warns western states it may impose Colorado River water cuts |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-warns-western-states-it-may-impose-colorado-river-water-cuts-2022-10-28/ |access-date=16 December 2022 |work=Reuters |date=28 October 2022 |archive-date=December 16, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221216053042/https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-warns-western-states-it-may-impose-colorado-river-water-cuts-2022-10-28/ |url-status=live }}</ref> As of December 2022 the lower basin states of Nevada, Arizona, and California had not agreed on how to reduce water use by the approximately 30% required to keep levels in lakes Mead and Powell from crashing.<ref name="Las Vegas Review Journal">{{cite news |last1=Lochhead |first1=Colton |title=Las Vegas water boss urges states to take action to keep lakes from crashing |url=https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas-water-boss-urges-states-to-take-action-to-keep-lakes-from-crashing-2695166/ |access-date=16 December 2022 |agency=Las Vegas Review Journal |date=15 December 2022 |archive-date=December 16, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221216053042/https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/las-vegas-water-boss-urges-states-to-take-action-to-keep-lakes-from-crashing-2695166/ |url-status=live }}</ref> The Bureau of Reclamation had projected that water levels at Lake Powell could fall low enough that by July 2023 Glen Canyon Dam would no longer be able to generate any hydropower, a scenario referred to as "dead pool".<ref>{{cite news |last1=Partlow |first1=Joshua |title=Officials fear 'complete doomsday scenario' for drought-stricken Colorado River |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/01/drought-colorado-river-lake-powell/ |access-date=16 December 2022 |agency=The Washington Post |date=1 December 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221209152836/https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/12/01/drought-colorado-river-lake-powell/ |archive-date=December 9, 2022}}</ref> Arizona proposed a plan that severely cut allocations to California, and California responded with a plan that severely cut allocations to Arizona, failing to reach consensus. In April 2023, the federal government proposed cutting allocations to Nevada, Arizona, and California evenly which would cut deliveries by as much as one-quarter to each state, rather than according to senior water rights.<ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/climate/colorado-river-water-cuts-drought.html |title=White House Proposes Evenly Cutting Water Allotments From Colorado River |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |author=Christopher Flavelle |date=April 11, 2023 |access-date=April 13, 2023 |archive-date=April 13, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230413192525/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/11/climate/colorado-river-water-cuts-drought.html |url-status=live }}</ref> In May 2023, the states finally reached a temporary agreement to prevent a "dead pool", reducing allocations by 3 million acre-feet over three years (until the end of 2026). 700,000 acre-feet were to be negotiated later among California, Arizona, and Nevada.<ref name="deal">{{cite news |url=https://www.sltrib.com/news/nation-world/2023/05/22/do-or-die-talks-reach-deal-keep/ |title=Do-or-die talks reach deal to keep Colorado River from going dry, for now |author=Christopher Flavelle |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |date=May 22, 2023 |access-date=June 10, 2023 |archive-date=June 10, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230610013841/https://www.sltrib.com/news/nation-world/2023/05/22/do-or-die-talks-reach-deal-keep/ |url-status=live }}</ref> The cuts were less than the federal government had demanded, and so further cuts will be needed after 2026.<ref name="deal" /> Fewer cuts were needed in the short term because the Colorado River Basin experienced an unusually rainy and snowy weather in early 2023.<ref name="deal" /><ref>{{cite news |url=https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-04-08/colorado-river-snowpack-california |title=Drought-ravaged Colorado River gets relief from snow. But long-term water crisis remains |author=Ian James |newspaper=[[The Los Angeles Times]] |date=8 April 2023 |access-date=April 13, 2023 |archive-date=April 13, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230413210949/https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2023-04-08/colorado-river-snowpack-california |url-status=live }}</ref> The agreement also became easier to negotiate because many cuts are being offset by one-time federal funding.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-states-reach-colorado-river-water-conservation-deal-interior-dept-2023-05-22/ |title=Western states reach 'historic' deal to help save Colorado River |website=[[Reuters]] |access-date=June 10, 2023 |archive-date=June 10, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230610013840/https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-states-reach-colorado-river-water-conservation-deal-interior-dept-2023-05-22/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Billions of dollars in funding for programs in the Colorado River Basin to recycle water, increase efficiency, and competitive grants to pay water rights holders not to use water from the river are being provided by the [[Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act]] and [[Inflation Reduction Act]], and other programs funded through the [[United States Environmental Protection Agency]] and [[United States Department of the Interior]]. These are projected to reduce demand by hundreds of thousands of acre-feet per year.<ref>{{Cite web |url=https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/06/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-investments-to-protect-the-colorado-river-system/ |title=FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces New Investments to Protect the Colorado River System |first=The White |last=House |date=April 6, 2023 |website=The White House |access-date=April 13, 2023 |archive-date=April 13, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230413231804/https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/06/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-new-investments-to-protect-the-colorado-river-system/ |url-status=live }}</ref>
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