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== {{Anchor|Proposed 450 mm transition}}450 mm wafers == === Challenges === There is considerable resistance to the 450 mm transition despite the possible productivity improvement, because of concern about insufficient return on investment.{{cn|date=December 2024}} There are also issues related to increased inter-die / edge-to-edge wafer variation and additional edge defects. 450mm wafers are expected to cost 4 times as much as 300mm wafers, and equipment costs are expected to rise by 20 to 50%.<ref>{{cite web|author=Steve Schulz |url=https://www.eetimes.com/collaborative-advantage-design-impact-of-450mm-transition/ |title=Collaborative advantage: Design impact of 450mm transition |publisher=EETimes |access-date=2022-03-08}}</ref> Higher cost semiconductor fabrication equipment for larger wafers increases the cost of 450 mm fabs (semiconductor fabrication facilities or factories). Lithographer [[Chris Mack (scientist)|Chris Mack]] claimed in 2012 that the overall price per die for 450 mm wafers would be reduced by only 10–20% compared to 300 mm wafers, because over 50% of total wafer processing costs are lithography-related. Converting to larger 450 mm wafers would reduce price per die only for process operations such as etch where cost is related to wafer count, not wafer area.{{Citation needed|date=July 2021}} Cost for processes such as lithography is proportional to wafer area, and larger wafers would not reduce the lithography contribution to die cost.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://life.lithoguru.com/index.php?itemid=253|title=Lithoguru {{!}} Musings of a Gentleman Scientist|website=life.lithoguru.com|language=en-US|access-date=2018-01-04}}</ref> Nikon planned to deliver 450-mm lithography equipment in 2015, with volume production in 2017.<ref name="Nikon 2014-05-20">{{cite press release |title=Nikon appointing head of precision equipment business as new president |location=Japan |publisher=Nikon Corp. |agency=semiconportal |date=May 20, 2014|quote=Nikon plans to introduce 450mm wafer lithography systems for volume production in 2017. }}</ref><ref name="Nikon 2013-09-13">{{cite news |last=LaPedus |first=Mark |url=http://semiengineering.com/litho-roadmap-remains-cloudy/ |title=Litho Roadmap Remains Cloudy |work=semiengineering.com |publisher=Sperling Media Group LLC |date=2013-09-13 |access-date=July 14, 2014 |quote=Nikon planned to ship 'early learning tools' by 2015. 'As we have said, we will be shipping to meet customer orders in 2015,' said Hamid Zarringhalam, executive vice president at Nikon Precision. }}</ref> In November 2013 [[ASML Holding|ASML]] paused development of 450-mm lithography equipment, citing uncertain timing of chipmaker demand.<ref name="ASML 2013 Annual report">{{cite web|url=https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/937966/000119312514046822/d546896d20f.htm |title=ASML 2013 Annual Report Form (20-F) |publisher=United States Securities and Exchange Commission |format=XBRL |date=February 11, 2014 |quote=In November 2013, following our customers' decision, ASML decided to pause the development of 450 mm lithography systems until customer demand and the timing related to such demand is clear. }}</ref> In 2012, a group consisting of [[New York (state)|New York State]] ([[SUNY Polytechnic Institute|SUNY Poly]]/[[SUNY Poly College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering|College of Nanoscale Science and Engineering]] (CNSE)), Intel, TSMC, Samsung, IBM, Globalfoundries and Nikon companies has formed a [[Public–private partnership|public-private partnership]] called Global 450mm Consortium (G450C, similar to [[SEMATECH]]) who made a 5-year plan (expiring in 2016) to develop a "cost effective wafer fabrication infrastructure, equipment prototypes and tools to enable coordinated industry transition to 450mm wafer level".<ref>{{cite web|title=G450C: a Global 450mm Consortium|url=https://www.vlsiresearch.com/g450c-a-global-450mm-consortium-PFEL1SE1H87HUYM|access-date=2021-07-26|website=VLSI Research|language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|date=2013-05-17|title=The Bumpy Road To 450mm|url=https://semiengineering.com/the-bumpy-road-to-450mm/|access-date=2021-07-26|website=Semiconductor Engineering|language=en-US}}</ref> In the mid of 2014 CNSE has announced that it will reveal first fully patterned 450mm wafers at SEMICON West.<ref>{{cite web|title=World's First Fully Patterned 450mm Wafers Unveiled at SEMICON West {{!}} SUNY Polytechnic Institute|url=https://sunypoly.edu/news/worlds-first-fully-patterned-450mm-wafers-unveiled-semicon-west.html|access-date=2021-07-26|website=sunypoly.edu}}</ref> In early 2017, the G450C began to dismantle its activities over 450mm wafer research due to undisclosed reasons.<ref>{{cite web|date=2017-01-17|title=450mm Officially On Hold {{!}} 450mm.com|url=http://450mm.com/blog/2017/01/17/450mm-officially-on-hold/|access-date=2021-07-26|website=450mm|language=en-US|archive-date=2021-07-26|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210726102109/http://450mm.com/blog/2017/01/17/450mm-officially-on-hold/}}</ref><ref name="Rulison">{{cite web|last=Rulison|first=Larry|date=2017-01-10|title=Future of SUNY Poly's 450mm program in doubt|url=https://www.timesunion.com/tuplus/article/Money-dries-up-for-another-SUNY-Poly-program-10847093.php|access-date=2021-07-26|website=Times Union|language=en-US}}</ref><ref name=":0"/> Various sources have speculated that demise of the group came after charges of [[bid rigging]] made against [[Alain E. Kaloyeros]], who at the time was a chief executive at the SUNY Poly.<ref name=":0">{{cite web|last=Rulison|first=Larry|date=2017-01-14|title=NY: Demise of G450C wasn't over money|url=https://www.timesunion.com/tuplus-business/article/NY-Demise-of-G450C-wasn-t-over-money-10857261.php|access-date=2021-07-26|website=Times Union|language=en-US}}</ref><ref name="Rulison"/><ref>{{cite web|date=January 17, 2017|title=450mm Officially On Hold…|url=http://450mm.com/blog/2017/01/17/450mm-officially-on-hold/|access-date=July 26, 2021|archive-date=July 26, 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210726102109/http://450mm.com/blog/2017/01/17/450mm-officially-on-hold/}}</ref> The industry realization of the fact that the 300mm manufacturing optimization is more cheap than costly 450mm transition may also have played a role.<ref name=":0" /> The timeline for 450 mm has not been fixed. In 2012, it was expected that 450mm production would start in 2017, which never realized.<ref>{{cite web|author=Dylan McGrath |url=https://www.eetimes.com/first-450-mm-fabs-to-ramp-in-2017-says-analyst/ |title=First 450-mm fabs to ramp in 2017, says analyst |publisher=EETimes |access-date=2022-03-08}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.eetimes.com/construction-of-450mm-fab-well-underway/ |title=Construction of 450mm Fab 'Well Underway' |publisher=EETimes |date=2013-08-15 |access-date=2022-03-08}}</ref> Mark Durcan, then CEO of [[Micron Technology]], said in February 2014 that he expects 450 mm adoption to be delayed indefinitely or discontinued. "I am not convinced that 450mm will ever happen but, to the extent that it does, it's a long way out in the future. There is not a lot of necessity for Micron, at least over the next five years, to be spending a lot of money on 450mm."<ref>{{cite web|last=Manners|first=David|date=2014-02-11|title=450mm May Never Happen, says Micron CEO|url=https://www.electronicsweekly.com/blogs/mannerisms/manufacturing-mannerisms/6706-2014-02/|access-date=2022-02-03|website=Electronics Weekly|language=en}}</ref> "There is a lot of investment that needs to go on in the equipment community to make that happen. And the value at the end of the day – so that customers would buy that equipment – I think is dubious."<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.electronicsweekly.com/mannerisms/manufacturing/6706-2014-02/|title=450mm May Never Happen, says Micron CEO|date=11 February 2014|website=electronicsweekly.com}}</ref> As of March 2014, Intel Corporation expected 450 mm deployment by 2020 (by the end of this decade).<ref name="intel450mm">{{cite web | url = http://blog.timesunion.com/business/intel-says-450mm-will-deploy-later-in-decade/59430/ | title = Intel says 450 mm will deploy later in decade |date=2014-03-18 | access-date = 2014-05-31}}</ref> Mark LaPedus of semiengineering.com reported in mid-2014 that chipmakers had delayed adoption of 450 mm "for the foreseeable future." According to this report some observers expected 2018 to 2020, while G. Dan Hutcheson, chief executive of VLSI Research, didn't see 450mm fabs moving into production until 2020 to 2025.<ref>{{cite news |last=LaPedus |first=Mark |url=http://semiengineering.com/is-450mm-dead-in-the-water/ |title=Is 450mm Dead In The Water? |work=semiengineering.com |location=California |publisher=Sperling Media Group LLC |date=2014-05-15 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140605134348/http://semiengineering.com/is-450mm-dead-in-the-water/ |archive-date=2014-06-05 |access-date=2014-06-04 |quote=Intel and the rest of the industry have delayed the shift to 450 mm fabs for the foreseeable future, leaving many to ponder the following question—Is 450 mm technology dead in the water? The answer: 450 mm is currently treading water. }}</ref> The step up to 300 mm required major changes, with [[automatic factory|fully automated factories]] using 300 mm wafers versus barely automated factories for the 200 mm wafers, partly because a [[FOUP]] for 300 mm wafers weighs about 7.5 kilograms<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.shinpoly.co.jp/english/product/semiconductor/seimitsu/300gt.html|title=MW 300GT | Wafer Cases | Shin-Etsu Polymer Co., Ltd|website=www.shinpoly.co.jp}}</ref> when loaded with 25 300 mm wafers where a [[SMIF (interface)|SMIF]] weighs about 4.8 kilograms<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ckplas.com/nen/wafer_smif_pod_8.htm|title=SMIF Pod-Chung King Enterprise Co., Ltd.|website=www.ckplas.com}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.ckplas.com/nen/ppcst_8_open.htm|title=Wafer Cassette-Chung King Enterprise Co., Ltd.|website=www.ckplas.com}}</ref><ref name="auto" /> when loaded with 25 200 mm wafers, thus requiring twice the amount of physical strength from factory workers, and increasing fatigue. 300mm FOUPs have handles so that they can be still be moved by hand. 450mm FOUPs weigh 45 kilograms<ref>{{cite web|url=http://450mm.com/blog/2013/04/07/standing-out-from-the-crowd/|title=Standing out from the Crowd on 450mm | 450mm News and Analysis|access-date=2019-05-27|archive-date=2019-05-27|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190527012152/http://450mm.com/blog/2013/04/07/standing-out-from-the-crowd/}}</ref> when loaded with 25 450 mm wafers, thus cranes are necessary to manually handle the FOUPs<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.h-square.com/O_Ergolifts.html|title=H-Square Ergolift Cleanroom Lift Carts|website=www.h-square.com|access-date=2019-05-27|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190527012153/http://www.h-square.com/O_Ergolifts.html|archive-date=2019-05-27}}</ref> and handles are no longer present in the FOUP. FOUPs are moved around using material handling systems from [[Muratec]] or [[Daifuku (company)|Daifuku]]. These major investments were undertaken in the [[economic downturn]] following the [[dot-com bubble]], resulting in huge resistance to upgrading to 450 mm by the original timeframe. On the ramp-up to 450 mm, the crystal ingots will be 3 times heavier (total weight a metric ton) and take 2–4 times longer to cool, and the process time will be double.{{cn|date=December 2024}} All told, the development of 450 mm wafers requires significant engineering, time, and cost to overcome.
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