Editing Stanley Baldwin (section)

===Disarmament===
Baldwin did not advocate total disarmament, but believed that, as [[Edward Grey, 1st Viscount Grey of Fallodon|Lord Grey of Falloden]] had stated in 1925, "great armaments lead inevitably to war".<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 722.</ref> However, he came to believe that, as he put it on 10 November 1932: "the time has now come to an end when Great Britain can proceed with unilateral disarmament".<ref name="Middlemas1">Middlemas and Barnes, p. 735.</ref> On 10 November 1932 he said:

<blockquote>I think it is well also for the man in the street to realise that there is no power on earth that can protect him from being bombed. Whatever people may tell him, [[the bomber will always get through]], The only defence is in offence, which means that you have to kill more women and children more quickly than the enemy if you want to save yourselves...If the conscience of the young men should ever come to feel, with regard to this one instrument [bombing] that it is evil and should go, the thing will be done; but if they do not feel like that – well, as I say, the future is in their hands. But when the next war comes, and European civilisation is wiped out, as it will be, and by no force more than that force, then do not let them lay blame on the old men. Let them remember that they, principally, or they alone, are responsible for the terrors that have fallen upon the earth.<ref name="Middlemas1"/></blockquote>

This speech was often used against Baldwin as allegedly demonstrating the futility of rearmament or disarmament, depending on the critic.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 736.</ref>

With the second part of the Disarmament Conference starting in January 1933, Baldwin attempted to see through his hope of air disarmament.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, pp. 736–737.</ref> However, he became alarmed at Britain's lack of defence against air raids and German rearmament, saying it "would be a terrible thing, in fact, the beginning of the end".<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 738.</ref> In April 1933 the Cabinet agreed to follow through with the construction of the [[Singapore]] military base.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 739.</ref>

On 15 September 1933, the German delegate at the Disarmament Conference refused to return to the Conference, and Germany left altogether in October. Baldwin, in a speech on 6 October to the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, pleaded for a Disarmament Convention, and then said:

<blockquote>when I speak of a Disarmament Convention I do not mean disarmament on the part of this country and not on the part of any other. I mean the limitation of armaments as a real limitation...and if we find ourselves on some lower rating and that some other country has higher figures, that country has to come down and we have to go up until we meet.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 741.</ref></blockquote>

Germany left the [[League of Nations]] on 14 October. The Cabinet decided on 23 October that Britain should still attempt to cooperate with other states, including Germany, in international disarmament.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 742.</ref> However between mid-September 1933 and the beginning of 1934 Baldwin's mind changed from hoping for disarmament to favouring rearmament, including parity in aircraft.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 743.</ref> In late 1933 and early 1934 he rejected an invitation from Hitler to meet him, believing that visits to foreign capitals were the job of Foreign Secretaries.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, pp. 748–51.</ref> On 8 March 1934, Baldwin defended the creation of four new squadrons for the [[Royal Air Force]] against Labour criticisms, and said of international disarmament:

<blockquote>If all our efforts for an agreement fail, and if it is not possible to obtain this equality in such matters as I have indicated, then any Government of this country—a National Government more than any, and ''this'' Government—will see to it that in air strength and air power this country shall no longer be in a position inferior to any country within striking distance of our shores.<ref name="Middlemas2">Middlemas and Barnes, p. 754.</ref></blockquote>

On 29 March 1934 Germany published its defence estimates, which showed a total increase of one-third and an increase of 250% in its air force.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 756.</ref>

A series of by-elections in late 1933 and early 1934 with massive swings against government candidates—most famous was [[1933 Fulham East by-election|Fulham East]] with a 26.5% swing— convinced Baldwin that the British public was profoundly pacifist.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, pp. 745–6.</ref> Baldwin also rejected the "belligerent" views of those like Churchill and [[Robert Vansittart, 1st Baron Vansittart|Robert Vansittart]] because he believed that the Nazis were rational men who would appreciate the logic of mutual and equal deterrence.<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 757.</ref> He also believed war to be "the most fearful terror and prostitution of man's knowledge that ever was known".<ref>Middlemas and Barnes, p. 759.</ref>