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===Adaptive toolbox=== The ''adaptive toolbox'' contains strategies for fabricating heuristic devices.<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Gigerenzer | first1 = G. | last2 = Gaissmaier | first2 = W. | date = 2011 | title = Heuristic Decision Making | url = https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_2099042_4/component/file_2099041/content | journal = Annual Review of Psychology | volume = 62 | issue = | pages = 451β482 | doi = 10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346 | pmid = 21126183 | access-date = 6 May 2024 | quote = The collection of heuristics and building blocks an individual or a species has at its disposal for constructing heuristics, together with the core mental capacities that building blocks exploit, has been called the adaptive toolbox (Gigerenzer et al. 1999).| hdl = 11858/00-001M-0000-0024-F16D-5 | hdl-access = free }}</ref> The core mental capacities are [[recall (memory)]], [[frequency]], [[object permanence]], and [[imitation]].<ref>{{cite journal | last1 = Gigerenzer | first1 = G. | last2 = Gaissmaier | first2 = W. | date = 2011 | title = Heuristic Decision Making | url = https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_2099042_4/component/file_2099041/content | journal = Annual Review of Psychology | volume = 62 | issue = | pages = 451β482 | doi = 10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346 | pmid = 21126183 | access-date = 6 May 2024 | quote =Core capacities include recognition memory, frequency monitoring, object tracking, and the ability to imitate.| hdl = 11858/00-001M-0000-0024-F16D-5 | hdl-access = free }}</ref> [[Gerd Gigerenzer]] and his research group argued that models of heuristics need to be formal to allow for predictions of behavior that can be tested.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Gigerenzer|first1=Gerd|author-link=Gerd Gigerenzer|last2=Todd|first2=Peter M.|author2-link=Peter Todd|last3=and the ABC Research Group|year=1999|title=Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart|location=Oxford, UK|publisher=[[Oxford University Press]]|isbn=978-0-19512-156-8}}</ref> They study the fast and frugal heuristics in the "adaptive toolbox" of individuals or institutions, and the [[ecological rationality]] of these heuristics; that is, the conditions under which a given heuristic is likely to be successful.<ref>{{cite book|editor-last1=Gigerenzer|editor-first1=Gerd|editor-last2=Selten|editor-first2=Reinhard|author2-link=Reinhard Selten|year=2002|title=Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox|location=Cambridge, MA|publisher=[[MIT Press]]|isbn=978-0-26257-164-7}}</ref> The descriptive study of the "adaptive toolbox" is done by observation and experiment, while the prescriptive study of [[ecological rationality]] requires mathematical analysis and computer simulation. Heuristics β such as the [[recognition heuristic]], the [[take-the-best heuristic]] and [[fast-and-frugal trees]] β have been shown to be effective in predictions, particularly in situations of uncertainty. It is often said that heuristics trade accuracy for effort but this is only the case in situations of risk. Risk refers to situations where all possible actions, their outcomes and probabilities are known. In the absence of this information, that is under uncertainty, heuristics can achieve higher accuracy with lower effort.<ref>{{cite book|last1=Gigerenzer|first1=Gerd|last2=Hertwig|first2=Ralph|last3=Pachur|first3=Thorsten|date=15 April 2011|title=Heuristics: The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior|publisher=Oxford University Press|doi=10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199744282.001.0001|isbn=978-0-19989-472-7|hdl=11858/00-001M-0000-0024-F172-8}}</ref> This finding, known as a [[Less-is-better effect|less-is-more effect]], would not have been found without formal models. The valuable insight of this program is that heuristics are effective not despite their simplicity β but because of it. Furthermore, [[Gerd Gigerenzer|Gigerenzer]] and Wolfgang Gaissmaier found that both individuals and organisations rely on heuristics in an adaptive way.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Gigerenzer|first1=Gerd|last2=Gaissmaier|first2=Wolfgang|title=Heuristic Decision Making|date=January 2011|journal=[[Annual Review of Psychology]]|volume=62|ssrn=1722019|doi=10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346|pmid=21126183|hdl=11858/00-001M-0000-0024-F16D-5|hdl-access=free|pages=451β482}}</ref>
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