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=== Factors that impact lasting peace === There are many factors that can have a negative impact on lasting peace such as hidden information about the relative strength possessed by the belligerents; a rebel group's involvement in illicit financing through means such as through the export of diamonds and other minerals; participation in the trafficking of drugs, weapons and human beings; whether or not military victory was achieved by one side; the length of the war as well as how costly it was; commitment problems and security dilemma spirals experienced by both sides; whether a cease-fire or treaty signed by the belligerents; lack of transparency in the motives and actions carried out by belligerents in the immediate aftermath of the conflict; extremist spoilers; participants in the conflict that may benefit from its continuation; indivisibility and more. Perhaps one of the most statistically significant contributors to a lasting peace is whether or not military victory was achieved by one side. According to Fortna's research, civil wars in which one side wins, resulting in a cease-fire or truce, have an approximately 85–90% lower chance of renewed war. Moreover, peace treaties further reduce the risk by 60–70%.<ref name="Fortna 2008 116"/> If a group is funded by drugs, diamonds or other illicit trade then there is a substantial increase in the chance of renewed violence—100–250%—which is to say that in such circumstances war is two to three-and-a-half times more likely to begin again.<ref name=":2">{{Cite book|title=Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents' Choice after Civil War|last=Fortna|first=Virginia|publisher=Princeton University Press|year=2008|pages=117}}</ref> While Fortna finds that wars which involve many factions are less likely to resume,<ref name=":2" /> Doyle and Sambanis find the opposite.<ref>{{Cite book|title=Making War and Building Peace : United Nations Peace Operations|last1=Doyle|first1=Michael W.|last2=Sambanis|first2=Nicholas|publisher=Princeton University Press|year=2010|pages=336}}</ref> Costly wars and wars fought along identity lines both provide varied chances of the renewal of violence. While longer wars and peace established by treaty (especially those attained by military victory) can reduce the chances of another war.<ref>{{Cite book|title=Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents' Choices after Civil War|last=Fortna|first=Virginia|publisher=Princeton University Press|year=2008|pages=117–119}}</ref>
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