Editing Electoral threshold (section)

==Natural threshold<span class="anchor" id="implicit threshold"></span><span class="anchor" id="effective threshold"></span><span class="anchor" id="hidden threshold"></span><span class="anchor" id="informal threshold"></span>==
[[File:Diputados por circunscripción (elecciones al Congreso de los Diputados, 2019).svg|right|thumb|Deputies by constituency assigned for the [[April 2019 Spanish general election|Spanish general elections of 2019]]]]
The number of seats in each [[electoral district]] creates a "hidden" natural threshold (also called an effective, or informal threshold). The number of votes that means that a party is guaranteed a seat can be calculated by the formula (<math>\frac{\mbox{total number of votes}}{\mbox{number of seats}+1} + \varepsilon</math>) where ε is the smallest possible number of votes. That means that in a district with four seats slightly more than 20 percent of the votes will guarantee a seat. Under more favorable circumstances, the party can still win a seat with fewer votes.<ref name="COE2010">{{Cite web |url=http://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/default.aspx?ref=cdl-ad(2010)007&lang=EN |title=Report on Thresholds and other features of electoral systems which bar parties from access to Parliament (II) |website=venice.coe.int |language=en-GB |date=2010|access-date=26 August 2018}}</ref> The most important factor in determining the natural threshold is the number of seats to be filled by the district. Other factors are the seat allocation formula ([[Sainte-Laguë method|Saint-Laguë]], [[D'Hondt method|D'Hondt]] or [[Hare quota|Hare]]), the number of contestant political parties and the size of the assembly. Generally, smaller districts leads to a higher proportion of votes needed to win a seat and vice versa.<ref name="COE2008">{{Cite web |url=http://www.venice.coe.int/webforms/documents/default.aspx?pdffile=CDL-AD(2008)037-e |title=Report on Thresholds and other features of electoral systems which bar parties from access to Parliament |date=2008 |website=venice.coe.int|access-date=26 August 2018}}</ref> The lower bound (the threshold of representation or the percentage of the vote that allows a party to earn a seat under the most favorable circumstances) is more difficult to calculate. In addition to the factors mentioned earlier, the number of votes cast for smaller parties are important. If more votes are cast for parties that do not win any seat, that will mean a lower percentage of votes needed to win a seat.<ref name="COE2010"/>

In some elections, the natural threshold may be higher than the legal threshold. In Spain, the legal threshold is 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—with most constituencies having less than 10 deputies, including [[Soria (Congress of Deputies constituency)|Soria]] with only two. Another example of this effect are [[elections to the European Parliament]]. In the [[Cyprus (European Parliament constituency)|Cyprus EU constituency]], the legal threshold is 1.8 percent,<ref>{{cite act |date=2004 |article=23 |index=10 (I) |title=Ο Περί της Εκλογής των Μελών του Ευρωπαϊκού Κοινοβουλίου Νόμος του 2004 (10(I)/2004) |trans-title=The 2004 Law on the Election of Members of the European Parliament (10(I)/2004)|url=http://www.cylaw.org/nomoi/enop/non-ind/2004_1_10/full.html |language=el-CY|via=Cyprus Bar Association}}</ref> explicitly replacing the threshold for national election which is 3.6 percent.<ref>{{cite act |date=1979 |article=33 |index=72 |title=Ο περί Εκλογής Μελών της Βουλής των Αντιπροσώπων Νόμος του 1979 (72/1979) |trans-title=The Election of Members of the House of Representatives Law of 1979 (72/1979)|url=http://www.cylaw.org/nomoi/enop/ind/1979_1_72/section-scea480559-6b39-4d13-abce-7c0c709dbc7c.html |language=el-CY|via=Cyprus Bar Association}}</ref> Cyprus only has 6 [[Member of the European Parliament|MEPs]], raising the natural threshold. An extreme example of this was in [[2004 European Parliament election in Cyprus|the 2004 EU Parliament elections]], where [[European Democracy (Cyprus)|For Europe]] won 36,112 votes (10.80%) and [[EDEK Socialist Party|EDEK]] won 36,075 votes (10.79%); despite both parties crossing the threshold by a high margin and a difference of only 37 votes, only "For Europe" returned an MEP to the European Parliament.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.hri.org/news/cyprus/cna/2004/04-06-13_2.cna.html|title=Cyprus News Agency: News in English, 04-06-13|date=4 June 2013|access-date=15 June 2024|work=Hellenic Resources Network}}</ref>

Other examples include:
*[[Lithuania (European Parliament constituency)|Lithuania EU constituency]] ([[2004 European Parliament election in Lithuania|2004]]): [[Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance|LLRA–KŠS]]–[[Lithuanian Russian Union|LRS]] won {{#expr:68937/1284050*100 round 2}} percent despite a threshold of 5 percent<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.vrk.lt/statiniai/puslapiai/rinkimai/2004/euro/rezultatai/rez_e_18.htm|title= Elections to the European Parliament, 13 June 2004 |date=18 June 2004|access-date=15 June 2024}}</ref>
*[[Austria (European Parliament constituency)|Austria EU constituency]] ([[2009 European Parliament election in Austria|2009]]): [[Alliance for the Future of Austria|BZÖ]] won 4.6 percent<ref>{{cite web|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110706092453/http://wahl09.bmi.gv.at/|url=http://wahl09.bmi.gv.at/|archive-date=6 July 2011|title=Österreich, Endergebnis (inklusive aller Wahlkartenergebnisse)|access-date=15 June 2024|lang=de-AT}}</ref> despite a threshold of 4 percent;<ref>{{cite act |date=1996 |article=77 (1) |index=117 |title=117. Bundesgesetz über die Wahl der von Österreich zu entsendenden Abgeordneten zum Europäischen Parlament |trans-title=117. Federal Law on the Election of Members of the European Parliament to be sent by Austria|url=https://www.ris.bka.gv.at/Dokumente/BgblPdf/1996_117_0/1996_117_0.pdf |language=de-AT|via=[[Bundesgesetzblatt (Austria)|Bundesgesetzblatt]]}}</ref> after the [[Treaty of Lisbon]], [[Ewald Stadler]] (BZÖ) became MEP
*[[Croatia (European Parliament constituency)|Croatia EU constituency]] ([[2014 European Parliament election in Croatia|2014]]): [[Alliance for Croatia]] won 6.88 percent despite a threshold of 5 percent<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.izbori.hr/arhiva-izbora/data/euparlament/2014/izabrani/i_14_000_0000.pdf|title=IZBORI ČLANOVA U EUROPSKI PARLAMENT IZ REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE|lang=hr|date=9 June 2014|access-date=16 June 2024}}</ref>
*[[Latvia (European Parliament constituency)|Latvia EU constituency]] ([[2019 European Parliament election in Latvia|2019]]): [[Union of Greens and Farmers|ZZS]] won 5.34 percent<ref>{{cite web|url=https://epv2019.cvk.lv/pub/velesanu-rezultati|title=Eiropas Parlamenta vēlēšanas 2019|lang=lv|access-date=15 June 2024}}</ref> despite a threshold of 5 percent<ref>{{cite act |date=2019 |article=44 (1) |title=Eiropas Parlamenta vēlēšanu likums |trans-title=Election to the European Parliament Law|url=https://likumi.lv/ta/en/en/id/84185}}</ref>
*Croatia EU constituency ([[2024 European Parliament election in Croatia|2024]]): "Fair Play List 9" won 5.54 percent<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.izbori.hr/site/UserDocsImages/2024/Izbori_za_EU_parlament/EU%20parlament%202024.%20Rezultati%20izbora.pdf|title=REZULTATE IZBORA ČLANOVA U EUROPSKI PARLAMENT IZ REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE PROVEDENIH 9. LIPNJA 2024. GODINE|lang=hr|date=10 June 2024|access-date=15 June 2024}}</ref> despite a threshold of 5 percent;<ref>{{Cite web |last1=Oelbermann |first1=Kai Friederike |last2=Pukelsheim |first2=Friedrich |date=July 2020 |title=The European Elections of May 2019 |url=https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2020/652037/EPRS_STU(2020)652037_EN.pdf |website=europarl.europa.eu |page=14}}</ref> in [[2019 European Parliament election in Croatia|2019]], its predecessor, [[Amsterdam Coalition]], won a MEP with just 5.19 percent<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.izbori.hr/site/UserDocsImages/2019/Izbori_clanova_u_EU_parlament_iz_RH/Rezultati/rjesenje.pdf|title=REZULTATE IZBORA ČLANOVA U EUROPSKI PARLAMENT IZ REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE PROVEDENIH 26. SVIBNJA 2019. GODINE|lang=hr|date=27 May 2019|access-date=15 June 2024}}</ref>
*Lithuania EU constituency ([[2024 European Parliament election in Lithuania|2024]]): [[Lithuanian Regions Party|LRP]] won 5.15 percent despite a threshold of 5 percent<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.vrk.lt/2024-europos-parlamento/rezultatai?srcUrl=/rinkimai/1546/1/2146/rezultatai/lt/rezultataiEpDaugmVrt.html|title=2024 m. birželio 9 d. rinkimai į Europos Parlamentą|lang=lt|date=15 June 2024|access-date=15 June 2024}}</ref>