Editing Economy of Sri Lanka (section)

====12 Month T bill to be at 10% by 30 June 2019====

The CBSL has reduced its T bill holding significantly from April 2017 to date reversing any monetary stimulated inflationary actions. Thus the resultant liquidity levels in the money market broadly reflect natural market conditions compared to the market that was there a year ago, which reflected more realistic banking sector interest rates as of June 2018. Private sector credit growth declined from high levels of 29% YoY in July 2016 to 15% YoY levels in 1Q2018.

Given the changes taking place in the private credit space (i.e. the retail tilt), and provided the CBSL's recent policy rate cut in April 2018, credit growth may still continue to move either horizontally (i.e. at a 15% level) or continue to reduce slightly given anticipated near term inflationary pressures, as the consumption-led borrowings may also tend to decline on account of the anticipated reduction in near term disposable income. This will however not add any excessive upward pressures on interest rates (including 12-month T bill yields), especially during 2H2018E. As a result, 12-month Treasury bill yields may slightly decline from its June 2018 --> 9.4% to 9% levels by the end of 2018E. However, given the International Sovereign Bond (ISB) bullet payments >US$3bn p.a. commencing from 2019E may likely add some upward pressure on interest rates, resulting in the 12-month T bill yields rising to at least 10% by 30 June 2019.<!-- The author of this segment (Sanjeewa Fernando) is a Lecturer at the University of Colombo for Master of Financial Economics -->