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== Politics == === Voter registration statistics === {| class="wikitable collapsible collapsed" |- ! colspan="3" | Population and registered voters |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Total population<ref name="US-CB-B02001"/> | colspan="2" | 253,606 |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Registered voters<ref name="CA-SS">California Secretary of State. [http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/ror-odd-year-2013/political-sub.pdf February 10, 2013 - Report of Registration] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130727173649/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/ror-odd-year-2013/political-sub.pdf |date=July 27, 2013 }}. Retrieved October 31, 2013.</ref><ref name="PCT-RV" group=note>Percentage of registered voters with respect to total population. Percentages of party members with respect to registered voters follow.</ref> | 98,874 | 39.0% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Democratic<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 43,981 | 44.5% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Republican<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 32,767 | 33.1% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Democratic–Republican spread<ref name="CA-SS"/> | <span style="color: #2b00d6;">'''+11,214'''</span> | <span style="color: #2b00d6;">'''+11.4%'''</span> |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Independent<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 3,016 | 3.1% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Green<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 568 | 0.6% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Libertarian<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 483 | 0.5% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Peace and Freedom<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 318 | 0.3% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Americans Elect<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 2 | 0.0% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | Other<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 180 | 0.2% |- ! scope="row" style="text-align: left;" | No party preference<ref name="CA-SS"/> | 17,559 | 17.8% |} ==== Cities by population and voter registration ==== {| class="wikitable collapsible collapsed sortable" style="width: 100%;" |- ! colspan="8" | Cities by population and voter registration |- ! City ! data-sort-type="number" | Population<ref name="US-CB-B02001"/> ! data-sort-type="number" | Registered voters<ref name="CA-SS"/><br /><ref name="PCT-RV" group=note/> ! data-sort-type="number" | Democratic<ref name="CA-SS"/> ! data-sort-type="number" | Republican<ref name="CA-SS"/> ! data-sort-type="number" | D–R spread<ref name="CA-SS"/> ! data-sort-type="number" | Other<ref name="CA-SS"/> ! data-sort-type="number" | No party preference<ref name="CA-SS"/> |- | [[Atwater, California|Atwater]] || 27,922 || 41.0% || 39.4% || 37.4% || <span style="color: #800080;">'''+2.0%'''</span> || 8.2% || 18.3% |- | [[Dos Palos, California|Dos Palos]] || 4,940 || 38.0% || 44.4% || 35.0% || <span style="color: #800080;">'''+9.4%'''</span> || 9.9% || 14.9% |- | [[Gustine, California|Gustine]] || 5,484 || 38.3% || 48.2% || 30.3% || <span style="color: #2b00d6;">'''+17.9%'''</span> || 7.7% || 17.0% |- | [[Livingston, California|Livingston]] || 12,899 || 34.6% || 62.2% || 15.9% || <span style="color: #0000ff;">'''+46.3%'''</span> || 4.9% || 18.9% |- | [[Los Banos, California|Los Banos]] || 35,252 || 37.6% || 50.1% || 27.6% || <span style="color: #2b00d6;">'''+22.5%'''</span> || 7.8% || 17.7% |- | [[Merced, California|Merced]] || 78,111 || 41.0% || 46.4% || 30.2% || <span style="color: #2b00d6;">'''+16.2%'''</span> || 8.2% || 18.3% |} === Overview === Merced County has been somewhat of a bellwether county for presidential elections. Since [[1916 United States presidential election in California|1916]], it has voted for the winner in each election except in [[1956 United States presidential election in California|1956]] when it voted for [[Adlai Stevenson II]] instead of [[Dwight D. Eisenhower]], [[1968 United States presidential election in California|1968]] when it voted for [[Hubert Humphrey]] instead of [[Richard Nixon]], and [[2016 United States presidential election in California|2016]] when it voted for [[Hillary Clinton]] instead of [[Donald Trump]]. In [[2024 United States presidential election in California|2024]], [[Donald Trump]] won the county in a slim victory, continuing the county's bellwether county status.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Election Night Reporting |url=https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CA/Merced/122862/web.345435/#/summary |access-date=2024-11-14 |website=results.enr.clarityelections.com |language=en}}</ref> [[Donald Trump|Trump]]'s win in Merced county made it one of ten counties to flip from [[Joe Biden|Biden]] to [[Donald Trump|Trump]], as well as making Merced one of six counties to vote for the Republican presidential candidate for the first time in 20 years since [[George W. Bush]] in [[2004 United States presidential election in California|2004]]. Democrat [[Barack Obama]] won a majority in the county in both [[2008 United States presidential election in California|2008]] and 2012. Before that, Republican [[George W. Bush]] won a majority in the county in both [[2000 United States presidential election in California|2000]] and [[2004 United States presidential election in California|2004]]. {{PresHead|place=Merced County, California|source=<ref>{{cite web|url=http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/|title=Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections|first=David|last=Leip|website=uselectionatlas.org|access-date=March 16, 2018}}</ref>|source2=<ref group=note>This total comprised 1,571 votes for [[Progressive Party (United States, 1912)|Progressive]] [[Theodore Roosevelt]] (who was official Republican nominee in California), 441 votes for [[Socialist Party of America|Socialist]] [[Eugene V. Debs]] and 228 votes for [[Prohibition Party]] nominee [[Eugene W. Chafin]].</ref>}} <!-- PresRow should be {{PresRow|Year|Winning party|GOP vote #|Dem vote #|3rd party vote #|State}} --> {{PresRow|2024|Republican|43,955|40,190|2,558|California}} {{PresRow|2020|Democratic|39,397|48,991|2,605|California}} {{PresRow|2016|Democratic|28,725|37,317|4,747|California}} {{PresRow|2012|Democratic|27,581|33,005|1,636|California}} {{PresRow|2008|Democratic|28,704|34,031|1,316|California}} {{PresRow|2004|Republican|32,773|24,491|696|California}} {{PresRow|2000|Republican|26,102|22,726|1,590|California}} {{PresRow|1996|Democratic|20,847|21,786|4,305|California}} {{PresRow|1992|Democratic|17,981|20,133|11,170|California}} {{PresRow|1988|Republican|21,717|20,105|592|California}} {{PresRow|1984|Republican|24,997|17,012|468|California}} {{PresRow|1980|Republican|18,043|15,886|3,067|California}} {{PresRow|1976|Democratic|14,842|16,637|729|California}} {{PresRow|1972|Republican|17,737|13,914|997|California}} {{PresRow|1968|Democratic|11,595|14,453|2,301|California}} {{PresRow|1964|Democratic|8,814|19,431|24|California}} {{PresRow|1960|Democratic|11,990|15,545|111|California}} {{PresRow|1956|Democratic|11,430|13,366|56|California}} {{PresRow|1952|Republican|13,512|11,639|219|California}} {{PresRow|1948|Democratic|7,721|9,959|444|California}} {{PresRow|1944|Democratic|6,518|9,192|69|California}} {{PresRow|1940|Democratic|6,101|10,501|182|California}} {{PresRow|1936|Democratic|3,230|9,208|230|California}} {{PresRow|1932|Democratic|2,920|7,202|612|California}} {{PresRow|1928|Republican|4,644|2,970|104|California}} {{PresRow|1924|Republican|3,573|710|2,466|California}} {{PresRow|1920|Republican|3,457|1,537|494|California}} {{PresRow|1916|Democratic|2,132|2,637|467|California}} {{PresRow|1912|Progressive|10|1,978|2,240|California}} {{PresRow|1908|Republican|1,107|1,100|276|California}} {{PresRow|1904|Republican|972|863|146|California}} {{PresRow|1900|Democratic|811|1,081|58|California}} {{PresRow|1896|Democratic|653|1,117|32|California}} {{PresRow|1892|Democratic|782|995|195|California}} {{PresRow|1888|Democratic|773|972|51|California}} {{PresRow|1884|Democratic|809|953|17|California}} {{PresFoot|1880|Democratic|516|736|4|California}} According to the California Secretary of State, as of October 20, 2008, there were 97,179 registered voters in Merced County.{{citation needed|date=September 2018}} Of those, 44,704 (46.0%) are registered Democratic, 35,955 (37.0%) are registered Republican, 3,090 (3.2%) are registered with other political parties, and 13,430 (13.8%) declined to state a political party. [[Atwater, California|Atwater]] and the county's unincorporated areas have Republican plurality registration advantages. All of the other cities and towns in the county have Democratic pluralities or majorities in voter registration. Merced County has seen a rightward tilt in recent years, voting "Yes" in the [[2021 California gubernatorial recall election|2021 gubernatorial recall election]] despite voting for Governor [[Gavin Newsom]] by a margin of 4% in [[2018 California gubernatorial election|2018]]. The county then voted for Republican nominee [[Brian Dahle]] in [[2022 California gubernatorial election|2022]] over Newsom, as well as for all Republican nominees for statewide office.
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